The Presentation of Risk and Uncertainty in the Context of National - PDF document

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/304196307 The Presentation of Risk and Uncertainty in the Context of National Missile Defense Simulations Article in Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting Proceedings · October 2003 DOI: 10.1177/154193120304700365 CITATIONS READS 2 14 6 authors , including: Patricia L Mcdermott Michael Barnes MITRE Army Research Laboratory 49 PUBLICATIONS 203 CITATIONS 113 PUBLICATIONS 1,952 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Douglas Gillan Ling Rothrock North Carolina State University Pennsylvania State University 147 PUBLICATIONS 1,460 CITATIONS 88 PUBLICATIONS 757 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Spatial Cognition View project Usability Science View project All content following this page was uploaded by Douglas Gillan on 20 October 2017. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE SIMULATIONS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Doug Gillan*, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 562 PROCEEDINGS of the HUMAN FACTORS AND ERGONOMICS SOCIETY 47th ANNUAL MEETING—2003 THE PRESENTATION OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONTEXT OF College Park, PA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Ft. Huachuca, zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Patricia McDermott’, Shaun Hutchins*, Michael Barnes3, Corey Koenecke’, & Ling Rothrock4 ‘Micro Analysis & Design *New Mexico State University Boulder, CO Las Cruces, NM 3Army Research Laboratory 4 Pennsylvania State University AZ Risk perception and uncertainty management are important components of military decision making, especially in time-stressed and resource-limited environments. The purpose of this experiment was to understand the interaction of integrality of information, presentation mode, and information frame on situation awareness (SA) and decision-making (missile allocation) in a National Missile Defense (NMD) paradigm. Results of the information frame manipulation (expected gain v. expected loss) support earlier findings that subjects are loss averse. SA Accuracy was higher with graphical displays than alphanumeric displays. The implications for NMD are discussed. gains (Shafir & Tversky, 1995). This shows a tendency INTRODUCTION towards loss aversion in both frames. Risk management is an important component of The third consideration is the perceptual format. In financial, industrial, and military planning. Decision general, risk information is better displayed with a support displays allow planners to predict risk and graphical format (Smith & Wickens, 1999); however, allocate limited resources based on an understanding of some studies have found that textual formats were the uncertainty and possible consequences of their associated with superior performance. The crucial factor decision options. Military risk management involves seems to be whether information captures the dynamics asset allocation decisions based on criteria such as own of the process being represented (Meyer, Shamo & and enemy predicted losses (Schlabach, Hayes, & Gopher, 1999; Wickens & Hollands, 2000). Goldberg, 1999). However, it would be a mistake to A National Missile Defense ( N M D ) paradigm was assume that these decisions are made with normative chosen because it has extreme time constraints and methods. Humans, especially in stressful environments, decisions have deadly consequences. The physics of the use “rules-of-thumb” or heuristics that are both efficient sensors and interceptors enable fairly accurate and non-normative (Klein, 1999; Wickens & Hollands, predictions about value of the intended targets, threat 2000). The question that this experiment addresses is probabilities, and the probability of successful parameters were varied: zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA how to present risk information to take advantage of the interception. Operators deploy a limited supply of efficiencies of these heuristics while minimizing the defensive missiles known as Ground Based Interceptors effects of human cognitive biases. (GBIs) based on their evaluation of risk. This experiment draws on three main bodies of research investigating uncertainty perception and THE RESEARCH QUESTION decision making: visualization, framing, and perceptual 0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA The purpose of our study was to understand the format. In uncertainty perception, Johnson-Laird, interaction of cognitive and perceptual display factors on Legrenzi, Girotto, Legrenzi & Caverni (1999) proposed SA and missile allocation. The following display a theoretical model of human visualization of probability spaces that implied that improving the humans’ Mode: Information about city Presentation visualization of the problem space should lead to population and probability of success was improved decision making as long as the process does Integrated into a value for expected population not require additional mental calculations. saved, or kept Separate; Information frame also influences risk perception. I 0 Frame: Information was conveyed in terms of When college students were given risk information as Gains (probability of success and expected I losses they tended to be risk seeking and, inversely, were risk averse if the same information was presented as

population saved) or zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA failure and expected population lost); and zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 563 PROCEEDINGS of the HUMAN FACTORS AND ERGONOMICS SOCIETY 47th ANNUAL MEETING—2003 - zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Losses (probability of that the smaller the bar, the greater the chance of I& zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA intercepti ; the incoming missile. ____ - - ._ e Format: Graphical or Alphanumeric. AI*ol.%.BA EL M Y 0 We predicted that appropriate GBI allocation and rme b SA would be improved through the enhancements afforded by an integral risk display. Further, we 9 7 197 hypothesized that in comparison to the gain frame, supporting SA and decision quality. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA participants in the loss frame would be more likely to take assets out of reserve and more likely to put assets Mode zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA on cities with no defensive assets, thus avoiding a sure loss. Finally, we hypothesized that graphical displays would be superior to alphanumeric presentations in Mumlim 6sl METHODS 4 The experiment was a 2~2x2 mixed factorial design ~~ ~ with Presentation as a between variable. Format 2 and Frame were repeated measures and Frame was 1 m/* blocked. The levels of Format, Presentation Mode, and Reserves Frame were combined to create eight displays. Order ~~ was counterbalanced. Forty-eight students participated. gure 1. Separate graphic gain dis] 1 Some display aspects were common across the eight displays. The reserve GBIs used, the reserve GBIs In the Integral Graphic displays (see Figure 2.) the remaining, and time elapsed were numerically vertical and horizontal bars were fixed to make two represented. Each target city had its own area that sides of a rectangle. The height still represented top to bottom): time till the incoming included (from probability of success/failure and the width still missile impacts, probability of successfully intercepting represented population. However, the area of the the incoming missile, population of the target city, and rectangle represented expected population saved (or GBI missile allocation along with up and down arrow expected population loss in the Loss frame). The buttons that allowed participants to increase or decrease numerical value of expected population saved/loss was the number of reserve GBIs allocated. The color green displayed. The Integral Graphical display condition, was always used to indicate the Gain frame and the color one zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA utilized a square presentation as a pilot study found that red was used in the Loss h e . The presentation of subjects were more accurate when this type of graphical population, probability, expected value, and GBIs presentation was used (Gillan & Hutchins, 2002). depended on the display. In the Separate Graphic Gain display (Figure 1) a circle represented time until impact. Slices of the circle I disappeared as time elapsed so that the more of the circle I that was missing, the less time until impact. A vertical I bar represented probability of success between zero and , - the higher the bar, the higher the probability of 1 success. A horizontal bar represented population between zero and 4.5 million - the longer the bar, the higher the population. The number of GBIs was represented by a bar graph. The number of GBIs initially Figure 2. Integral graphic gain display allocated by the computer was shown in light blue and the number of reserve GBIs allocated by the participant In the four Alphanumeric displays all values were was dark blue. numerical. The Integral Alphanumeric displays also In the Separate Graphic Loss display the vertical bar showed the value of expected population saved/lost. See represented probability of failure as opposed to success. Figure 3 for an example of an Alphanumeric display, The critical difference in interpreting this display was specifically the Integral Alphanumeric Gain display.