THE GROWING RENEWABLE ENERGY IN LEBANON & the potential for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

THE GROWING RENEWABLE ENERGY IN LEBANON & the potential for energy storage By Joseph Al Assad, PhD. Advisor to the Minister of Energy & Water - Associate Professor at Holy Spirit University of Kaslik (USEK) & Rani Al Achkar, LCEC Director of Engineering & Planning ATA INSIGHTS WEBINAR May 30, 2019

1. A decade of Political Commitment! 2. The wheels are turning! 3. Updating The Conventional Generation Fleet 4. The Need For Storage? 5. The Potential For Storage? 2

1. A decade of political commitment! 3

Solar Water Heaters +++ 4

MEW Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector 2018 2019 30% IRENA Commitment Renewable PM Saad Hariri Energy Outlook REmap + Renewable Readiness Assessment +++ 5

2. The wheels are turning! 6

3 Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) signed Installed Capacity 226 MW in Total Expected Commercial Operation Date (COD): Feb 2021 28 proposals shortlisted & under evaluation, 12 PPAs to be signed end of 2019 Installed Capacity 180 MWp in total (10-15 MWp each) Expected Commercial Operation Date (COD): Q1 2021 Vectors from https://www.freepik.com/macrovector 7

Call for Expressions of Interest (EOIs): 42 EOIs received Request for Proposals (RFP) is under finalization 4 proposals to be selected Installed Capacity 200 – 400 MW Round 2 to be launched end of 2019 24 proposals to be selected Installed Capacity 360 MWp in total (10-15 MW each) Vectors from https://www.freepik.com/macrovector 8

Call for Expressions of Interest (EOIs): 75 EOIs received Request for Proposals (RFP) is under preparation + 6 proposals to be selected Total Installed Capacity 300 MWp – 210MW/210MWh Call for Expressions of Interest (EOIs): 25 EOIs received Vectors from https://www.freepik.com/macrovector 9

3. Updating The Conventional Generation Fleet 10

6,000 5,695 5,505 5,363 5,145 5,145 4,953 5,000 4,784 4,763 4,359 4,344 4,672 4,536 3,990 4,404 4,275 4,000 3,669 3,581 4,151 4,030 3,913 3,799 3,688 3,476 3,000 2,449 2,000 1,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) Source: Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry 11 of Energy and Water – March 2019

6,000 5,695 5,505 5,363 5,145 5,145 4,953 5,000 4,784 4,763 4,359 4,344 4,672 4,536 3,990 4,404 4,275 4,000 3,669 3,581 4,151 4,030 3,913 3,799 3,688 3,476 3,000 2,449 2,000 1,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) Source: Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry 12 of Energy and Water – March 2019

EFFECTIVE CAPACITY 2018 Landfil Gas Imports 0% 3% Hydro 4% OCGT 5% Internal Combustion Engines CCGT 9% 35% Power Barges 16% As per Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry of Steam Turbines 13 Energy and Water – March 2019 28%

Unit Name Unit type Effective Capacity 2018 Cost of Production (MW) (USD/MWh) Zouk 1 Steam Turbines 440 $14.75 Jieh 1 Steam Turbines 180 $19.39 Zouk 2 Internal Combustion Engines 157 $10.83 Jieh 2 Internal Combustion Engines 63 $11.19 Zahrani CCGT 420 $13.62 Deir Ammar CCGT 430 $14.96 Baalbeck OCGT 57 $20.26 Tyr OCGT 56 $21.44 Richmaya-Safa Hydro 3 $3.66 Naameh Landfil Gas 7 $1.00 Power Barge Zouk Power Barges 195 $13.95 Power Barge Jieh Power Barges 195 $14.03 Litani Hydro 47 $3.97 Nahr Ibrahim Hydro 17 $2.65 Bared Hydro 6 $2.65 Kadisha Hydro 15 $2.65 Hrayche Steam Turbines 46 $20.13 Import from Syria Imports 69 $15.35 Source: Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry 14 of Energy and Water – March 2019

300 MW Jiyeh Exit Solar PV (343 MW) + 210 MWh Exit Storage 1450 MW Start 370 MW Zahrani 2 Selaata 220 MW TG Exit (550 MW Hrayché 1 Wind Syria Exit New Jyeh CCGT) (300 MW Zahrani 2 150 MW 1450 MW (360 MW Thermal) (360 MW TG OCGT) OCGT) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 New Zouk 180 MW Selaata 1 Selaata 1 Hrayché Deir Ammar 2 (550 MW Zouk Exit Solar PV (550 MW (360 MW Exit (360 MW CCGT) 607 MW New Zouk CCGT) OCGT) 70 MW OCGT) (360 MW OCGT) Start Zahrani LNG Deir Ammar 2 Wind 2 through (550 MW Power FSRUs CCGT) 400 MW • TG: Temporary Generation • CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine • OCGT: Open Cycle Gas Turbine Source: Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry 15 of Energy and Water – March 2019

4. The Need For Storage? 16

Wind energy grid interconnection code for Lebanon, UNDP-CEDRO, Beirut, 2017. 17

6000 Conventional 5000 6000 6,000 4782 4000 5000 5,000 30% 3000 4000 4,000 2000 3,000 3000 RE share in 2700 the Electricity 1000 2,000 2000 Demand by 2030 0 1,000 1000 1500 0 0 Biogas Hydro Wind Solar PV CSP Wind PV As per the IRENA Renewable Energy Outlook - Draft REmap Chapter – 18 presented in the IRENA Validation Workshop, Beirut on 8 May 2019

5. The Potential For Storage? 19

6,000 5,695 5,505 5,363 5,145 5,145 4,953 5,000 4,784 4,763 4,359 4,344 4,672 4,536 3,990 4,404 4,275 4,000 3,669 3,581 4,151 4,030 3,913 3,799 3,688 3,476 3,000 2,449 2,000 1,000 - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Installed Capacity (MW) Peak Demand (MW) Source: Updated Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector – Ministry 20 of Energy and Water – March 2019

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 January February March April May June July August September October November December

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 August November

1800 1600 Average=1,411 MW 1400 1200 1000 1708 1596 1574 1554 1550 1528 800 1469 1423 1256 1160 600 1066 1053 400 200 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Conventional January February March April May June July August September October November December

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Conventional August

5000 4500 4000 +4,499MWh -3,902MWh 3500 3000 -550 MW 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Adjusted Generation August

NOVEMBER 2030 3,900 3,400 2,900 2,400 1,900

MAY 2030 8,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 HR2 ZH1 DA1 DA2 ZH2 Sa1 ZK-ICE J-ICE PV 2700 MW Wind 1500 MW ZK2 Sa1 SA-2 Demand

MAY 2030 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 HR2 DA1 DA2 ZH2 Sa1 ZK-ICE J-ICE Hydro VRE Demand

MAY 2030 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hydro Conventional VRE Demand

MAY 2030 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hydro Conventional Adjusted VRE Storage Demand

August 2030 8,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hydro 2030 HR2 ZH1 DA1 DA2 ZH2 Sa1 ZK-ICE J-ICE PV 2700MW Wind 1500MW ZK2 Sa1 SA-2 Demand

August 2030 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hydro Conventional VRE Demand

August 2030 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hydro Conventional Adjusted VRE Storage Demand

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 0:01:46 0:21:46 0:41:46 1:01:46 1:21:46 1:41:46 2:01:46 2:21:46 2:41:46 3:01:46 3:21:46 3:41:46 4:01:46 4:21:46 4:41:46 5:01:46 5:21:46 5:41:46 6:01:46 6:21:46 6:41:46 7:01:46 7:21:46 7:41:46 8:01:46 8:21:46 8:41:46 9:01:46 9:21:46 9:41:46 10:01:46 10:21:46 24/02/2019 10:41:46 11:01:46 11:21:46 11:41:46 12:01:46 12:21:46 12:41:46 13:01:46 13:21:46 13:41:46 14:01:46 14:21:46 14:41:46 15:01:46 15:21:46 15:41:46 16:01:46 16:21:46 16:41:46 17:01:46 17:21:46 17:41:46 18:01:46 18:21:46 18:41:46 19:01:46 19:21:46 19:41:46 20:01:46 20:21:46 20:41:46 21:01:46 21:21:46 21:41:46 22:01:46 22:21:46 22:41:46 23:01:46 23:21:46 23:41:46