View from the Window at Le Gras View from the Window at Le Gras Niépce 1826 Niépce 1826 Original Original The Future of Photography Ricardo J. Motta Palo Alto, CA Kodak Research Laboratory 1952 1 2 3 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 View from the Window at Le Gras View from the Window at Le Gras View from the Window at Le Gras Niépce 1826 Niépce 1826 Niépce 1826 Original Original Original Kodak Research Laboratory 1952 Kodak Research Laboratory 1952 Kodak Research Laboratory 1952 Helmut Gernsheim Version Helmut Gernsheim Version Helmut Gernsheim Version Helmut Gernsheim Version Paul Marillier Model Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 4 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 5 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 6 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010
View from the Window at Le Gras Outline US Camera Sales Niépce 1826 Original • The Last 15 1994 Years • The State of Digital Photography SLR 6% 110 Mature Functions 13% Point and Shoot Instant Emerging Functions 74% 7% • Post-Digital Photography Kodak Research Laboratory 1952 Helmut Gernsheim Version Paul Marillier Model 7 8 9 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 US Camera Sales Transition Film to Digital Transition Film to Digital US Camera Sales US Film Sales 30.0 1000 1994 2007 22.5 750 SLR 6% SLR 10% 110 Millions Millions 15.0 500 Film PS 13% 6% Point and Shoot Instant Point and Shoot 74% 7% 84% 7.5 250 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Film Digital Film Rolls Single-Use Cameras PMAI 2009 Data PMAI 2009 Data Excludes Camera Phones and Single Use Cameras PMAI 2009 Data Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 10 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 11 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 12 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010
Why Digital Photo Won Transition Film to Digital • Instantaneous Feedback US Camera Sales 30.0 • Automatic Operation • Non-sequential Operation 22.5 Now What? • Sharing and Distribution Millions 15.0 • Compact cameras • Low Cost 7.5 • Good quality • Printing and Display 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Film Digital PMAI 2009 Data 13 14 15 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2009 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 The End of the Existing Roadmap Why do we Photograph? Mature Technologies My Thesis • To document and preserve • Printing Many of the motivations that leads us to photograph will be better served by new and • To share and communicate • Resolution different technology • To understand, analyze • Compression • To enjoy the craft and technology In the long term, photography as we know • Camera DSP today will continue to exist just as a visual art • For social motivations • Auto-Exposure Some of the first steps in that direction are • To create • Storage observable now Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 16 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2009 17 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 18 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010
Mature Technologies Photo Printing is Decreasing Photo Printing is Decreasing US Consumer Photo Printing US Consumer Photo Printing • Printing 30.0 30.0 • Resolution 22.5 22.5 “When you print, the information leaks • Compression out of the computer eco-system ...” Billions of Prints Billions of Prints 15.0 15.0 • Camera DSP Esther Dyson • Auto-Exposure 7.5 7.5 talking at HPLabs in 1993 • Storage 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AgX Photo Prints Digital Home Digital Retail AgX Photo Prints Digital Home Digital Retail PMAI 2009 Data PMAI 2009 Data 19 20 21 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Feb 18, 2009 Mature Technologies Ever Increasing Pixel Density Limits to Resolution • Canon PowerShot/IXUS Line Diffraction Limit • Printing 50.0 • Lens Cost • Resolution • Motion and Blur 40.0 • SNR • Compression Pixel Density (MP/cm2) • 30.0 Manufacturing Precision • Camera DSP • Operating Precision (AF) 20.0 • Array Size • Auto-Exposure • Dynamic Range 10.0 • Storage • Flare • Artifacts 0 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 Date Announced Source data: dpreview.com Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 22 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 23 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 24 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010
Evolution of Canon G Line Mature Technologies The Age of the Camera Phone • Printing Canon G Series Pixel Density 40 • Resolution 30 • Compression • Camera DSP MP/cm2 20 • Image Pipeline/AE 10 • Storage 0 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 Year Source data: dpreview.com 25 26 27 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Current Image Quality Limitations Why Camera Phones? Poor IR Filtering for Camera Phones • Low SNR and Dynamic Range • Quality approaching DSC Small well capacity makes exposure critical Low res OK - printing not required • Low quality Optics and limited AF Sensitivity high enough for most situations • Large display for review and sharing High F#, aberrations, vignetting, cross talk, flare • Rolling exposure • Well integrated with metadata (GPS, date time, voice anotations) Motion and lighting artifacts, no regular flash • Well integrated with communications • Poor IR filtering • Small, low cost, always available Hot mirror causes IR contamination and purple spot http://pocketnow.com/thought/clarification-the-pink-spot-syndrome Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 28 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 29 Ricardo J. Motta - The Future of Photography - EI 2010 30 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010 Thursday, February 25, 2010
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