The Economic Outlook Mississippi University Research Center - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Economic Outlook Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601) 432-6556 To subscribe to our publications, email Janna Weller at jweller@mississippi.edu Visit our website for state and county level economic data www.mississippi.edu/urc Follow URC on Twitter @MississippiURC

Consumer and Business Confidence Consumer Sentiment National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Optimism Index 110 115 100 110 105 90 100 80 95 90 70 85 80 60 75 50 70 Sentiment Low from Great Recession 55.8 Optimism Low from Great Recession 81.0 URC May 2020 2

US Real GDP: Annualized Quarterly Growth 20% 12.2% 9.4% 9.4% 10% 6.1% 5.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0% -4.8% -10% -20% -30% -36.5% -40% 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 3

US Real GDP $20,000 $19,500 $19,000 Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $18,500 $18,000 $17,500 $17,000 $16,500 $16,000 $15,500 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 4

Comparing Recessions, , 2008 vs. . 2020 Quarterly ly Real l GDP In Indexed to La Last Quarter of f Growth 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 Q -2 Q -1 Q 0 Q +1 Q +2 Q +3 Q +4 Q +5 Q +6 Q +7 Q +8 Q +9 Q +10 "Great Recession" COVID19 Recession Q-0 is last quarter of growth before recession URC May 2020 5

-15% -10% US Real GDP: Annual Growth 10% 15% 20% 25% -5% 0% 5% -12.9% 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 -11.6% 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 URC May 2020 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 -2.5% 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 -7.3% 2021 2023 6

Monthly Change in Non-farm Employment 400,000 200,000 0 -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 The # of jobs fell by over 20 million in April -881,000 -1,000,000 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 URC May 2020 7

Employment: Annualized Quarterly Growth 30% 19.3% 20% 15.4% 12.4% 10.2% 7.1% 10% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0% -10% -9.8% -20% -30% -40% -50% -55.3% -60% 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 8

Unemployment Rate 25% 19.6% 20% 18.1% 18.2% 15.8% 15% 13.8% 12.6% 11.7% 10.8% 9.9% 9.0% 10% 8.2% 5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 0% 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 9

$100 $120 $140 $20 $40 $60 $80 $0 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 Brent Oil Spot Price Per Barrel 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 URC May 2020 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 $63.38 2020Q3 $20.06 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 2024Q1 2024Q3 10

MS Real GDP: Annualized Quarterly Growth 20% 9.0% 8.3% 10% 6.7% 5.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0% -5.3% -10% -20% -30% -40% -43.6% -50% 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 11

MS Real GDP $106,000 $104,000 Millions of Chained 2012 Dollars $102,000 $100,000 $98,000 $96,000 $94,000 $92,000 $90,000 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 12

Historical GDP in MS 120000 100000 Millions of Chained 2012 Dollars 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 URC May 2020 13

Historical Annual Growth of MS Real GDP 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.7% -6.0% -8.0% -7.6% -10.0% URC May 2020 14

MS Nonfarm Employment 1,400 Preliminary Data show a decline of 1,200 117 thousand jobs in April 1,000 Thousands of Jobs 800 600 400 200 0 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 URC May 2020 15

Weekly Unemployment Claims in 2020 50,000 250,000 45,000 40,000 200,000 Highest Initial Claims from “Great Recession” was 9,420 Highest Continued Claims from “Great Recession was 49,935 35,000 Continued Claims Initial Claims 30,000 150,000 25,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 10,000 50,000 5,000 - 0 Initial Claims Continued Claims URC May 2020 16

MS Unemployment Rate $0 19.8% $0 18.7% 18.7% 16.9% 15.4% 14.3% $0 13.5% 12.7% 11.6% $0 5.6% 5.4% $0 $0 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 URC May 2020 17

MS General Fund with Current URC Projections $7,000 $6,000 $5,598.4 $5,131.8 $5,000 $4,000 Millions $3,000 $2,000 FY 2020 Estimate represents a decline of $864.4 Million below November Estimate. FY 2021 Estimate represents a decline of $367.1 Million below November Estimate. $1,000 These estimates reflect a shift of $436 million from FY 2020 to FY 2021 due to change in filing dates. $0 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 URC May 2020 18

Final Comments • Income supported by unprecedented federal transfer payments (stimulus and additional unemployment claims) • Projections always include assumptions about unknowns Current level of unknowns are elevated Assumptions for current situation can change dramatically with new information Useful revenue data is limited – April Revenue report reveals very little • Expect basic story to remain the same – Short Recession, Long Recovery • deepest hit in 2020Q2 • conditions begin to improve in Q3 as economy restarts; a relative short recession • Recovery continues into Q4 and through 2021-22 • Depth of recession means prolonged period before full recovery • MS follows similar pattern but is slower to fully recover; possibly 2023 URC May 2020 19