The Dutch Ticket Tax, lessons for Germany ? Infraday Berlin 8-9 october 2010 Hugo Gordijn Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
History • New Government, Christian-democrats/socialist, • New ambitions, environment, sustainable • Financed by yet untaxed Polluters: Aviation • Financial target fixed : 350 M-Euro • Details : to be fixed • Additional research showed : no tax on Freight, Nor on Transfer, otherwise killing your hub. • Euro 11,25 European trips, ICA 45 Euro.
History • Introduction 1 july 2008 • Summer 2008 : Credit-crunch • Tourist industry : big losses, empty hotels • KLM : 1 million travellers gone • Weeze : Number of dutch travellers doubled • April : Recovery package : tax will be nullified • Abolished 1 july 2009
Evaluation ex-ante • SEO/Significance made a series of calculations Variant 1E-B (Euro 12,50 resp 47,50) after full implementation in 2011, mean effect of 4 WLO-scenario’s : • Schiphol – passengers –8 % OD –10 % transfer –5 % – Business OD – 6 % transfer –4 % – Non business OD –13 % transfer –5 % – movements –8 % – Regional airports –12 % • What did lost passenger do ? – More Train/Car : 10% – No journey : 40% – Other Airports : 50%
Data Traffic Development Amsterdam Airport Year on year grow th rate 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 - 0,1 - 0,2 - 0,3 - 0,4 j ul-07 j ul-08 j ul-09 j ul-10 j an-07 j an-08 j an-09 j an-10 O&D Transfer Cargo <- Ticket t ax- > Source Schiphol
Regional airports Flights from W eeze ( NRN) and Eindhoven 250 Num ber of Flights per w eek 200 150 100 50 0 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 EIN NRN < - Ticket tax -> Source : OAG
Credit crisis effect on aviation Fig 3 I ATA airtraffic development year- on- year grow th 2007- 2010 Europe and W orld; Passengers & Freight 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% - 10% - 20% - 30% jul-07 jul-08 jul-09 jul-10 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 EurPass WPass <- Ticket t ax- > EurFr WFreight
Airport Choice Fig 4 Decisive factors for airport choice Source: KiM Airport Choice Survey 2010 Other 14% Flight- scheme and time- schedule Ticket-Price 37% 24% Distance/ travel costs 25%
Consumer behavior Source : Steverink, 2010 The cognitive Decision Sequence: Information Requirements: 9
(Im)perfect information:Awareness
Effect Ticket Tax Fig 6 Did the tax influence your choice? Total YES : 14% Yes, I did not Yes I used Fly another Yes, otherwise 3% modality 2% 2% Yes I took an other airport No, I did not 7% know there was a Ticket Tax No I have not 21% chosen differently No, I did not fly 32% 33%
Alternative choice Other Airport Chosen Other and Combinations CRL Brussels 18% 6% 14% FMO 4% Düsseldorf Weeze 36% 22%
Accessibility of Dutch airports for German citizens • 2 – 2,5 million Germans live closer to NL-airport • Embden to Bentheim, but GRQ and ENS very small / no operations • EIN to far for 8 Euro, but NL- citizens will come back • MAA (30 km from Aachen) serious chances • AMS – DUS: ICA passengers will partly shift back • See Grimme / Veldhuis
Other countries • UK 1994: Air Passenger • Belgium 2008: shelved Duty (now 1-55 Pound) • Ireland 2009 : (2 – 10 • France 2006: Solidarity Euro) Ryanair withdrew tax (1 – 40 Euro) planes • Malta tax (12 / 23 Euro) • Germany 2010 (8- 45 abolished in 2008 Euro) decided ? • Denmark repealed 2007 • EU (2012) ETS, international opposition • Sweden 2006: shelved • ICAO in discussion
Effects of Ticket Tax : Preliminary Conclusions • A unilateral tax has effects on airport choice and propensity to fly. In the dutch case both about 7%. • The effects are strongly related to the location of alternative airports. • Awareness of the tax and of alternative airports is an important aspect explaining the speed of adaptation. • The effects of Introduction and Abolishment of the tax are not symmetrical due to structural effects on awareness, experience and habit-formation. • Reactions of airlines (new routes or lost destinations) can have a structural effect.
Overall Conclusion • Strong permanent pressure to subject aviation to the ‘normal’ taxes : excise duty on fuel and VAT. • Do not do this on your own unless you are an Island and not dependent on incoming tourism. • Is there a case for EU-wide Ticket Tax in anticipation (or as a substitute) of the inclusion of air traffic in the Emission Trading Scheme ? • It would be a sensible solution !
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