The CORDEX-CORE initiative
Transient Climate Change “ Projection ” (using a GCM as boundary condition) Forcing scenarios Transient Global Temperature Climate Change Historical forcings Control Historical Period 2005 Future Period 1860 2100 Time
IPCC – 2013: Global temperature change projections for the 21 st century
Fraction of uncertainty explained by different sources as a function of lead time Internal variability Hawkins and Sutton 2009 Scenario uncertainty Model configuration uncertainty Decadal temperature - Global Decadal temperature – British Isles
Model configuration uncertainty at the regional scale (AOGCMs) Regional precipitation vs. temperature change West Africa monsoon season Mediterranean warm season
Trends on a regional scale
Precipitation trend 1990-2050 ECHAM5 LBC HadCM3 LBC
West Africa: climate projections (JAS) 4 GCMs, RCA4 (4 GCMs) and CCLM (4 GCMs) GCMs: a small increase in rainfall (ensemble average) RCA4: an increase in rainfall for all members CCLM4: a decrease (3 of 4) Courtesy of G. Nikulin
Sources of uncertainty in the simulation of temperature and precipitation change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) by the ensemble of PRUDENCE simulations (whole Europe) (Note: the scenario range is about half of the full IPCC range, the GCM range does not cover the full IPCC range) (Adapted from Deque et al. 2006) RCM VARIABILITY GCM SCENARIO T-DJF T-JJA P-DJF P-JJA
Large ensembles are needed to explore the uncertainty space Internal Variability RCD GCM Configuration Configuration Forcing Scenario Experiment (i,j,k … ) Geographic RCD Region Approach Giorgi et al. EOS 2008
CORDEX Vision and Goals The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships • To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and changes through downscaling • To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques (RCM, ESD, VAR-AGCM, HIR-AGCM) • To produce large coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide • To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information
CORDEX – Some history • Initial discussions across the downscaling community (mostly RCM) - Toulouse 2009 • Establishment by the WCRP of the Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling, TFRCD (2010) • Design of Phase I CORDEX framework (Giorgi et al. 2009; Jones et al. 2011) and first CORDEX Conference (Trieste 2011) • Establishment by the WCRP of the Science Advisory Team, SAT (2012) • Second Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2013, Brussels, November 2013. • Establishment by WCRP of the Working Group on Regional Climate, WGRC (2013). • Third Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2016, Stockholm, May 2016 • Fourth Pan-CORDEX conference ICRC-CORDEX 2019, Beijing, October 2019
CORDEX Management • CORDEX Science advisory team (SAT), 12 members SAT-2 meeting SMHI (Sweden) 25-27 Feb., 2015 • International Project Office for CORDEX (IPOC) hosted at SMHI since January 2015 (I. lake Head). • CORDEX archiving coordinated by IS-ENES • Regional points of contact (POCs), 2-3 per region
CORDEX domains
CORDEX Phase I experiment protocol Model Evaluation Climate Projection Framework Framework Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing Evaluation of present day ERA-Interim LBC GCM-driven climate runs 1989-2007 Scenarios (1951-2100) RCP4.5, RCP8.5 Regional Analysis Regional Databanks Multiple driving AOGCMs
Ensembles of projections are available for most domains, however with a large heterogeneity in the ensemble size, e.g. >30 over Europe, ~0 over Australasia CORDEX-AFRICA CORDEX-S. ASIA EURO-CORDEX 0.44° Scenarios 0.11° Scenarios 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 finishe/published running planed finishe/published running planed
CORDEX-CORE experiment protocol Model Evaluation Climate Projection Framework Framework Core number of RCMs run over all domains 25 km grid spacing Evaluation of present day ERA-Interim LBC GCM-driven climate runs 1989-2007 Scenarios (1970-2100) RCP2.6, RCP8.5 Regional Analysis Regional Databanks Core set of driving AOGCMs
Current status of CORDEX-CORE • Two RCMs participating – RegCM4 (ICTP-RegCNET) – REMO (GERICS) • Two scenarios: RCP8.5, RCP2.6 • Three CMIP5 GCMs are being downscaled – HadGEM (MIROC for SAS) – MPI – NorESM (GFDL for CAM) • Ten CORDEX domains: EUR, AFR, SAS, EAS, SEA, AUS, NAM, CAM, SAM, CAS (GERICS only) • Some other models may join (CLM) for individual domains. • Meant to provide input to the IPCC Atlas
RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE domains
Current status of RegCM4 simulations • Australasia: Completed (ICTP) • South America: Completed (ICTP) • Central America: Completed (ICTP) • Africa: ~ 2070 (ICTP) • Europe: Special case – PRINCIPLES (12 km resolution) • South Asia: Completed (Moetasim) • Southeast Asia: Historical completed (Eun-Soon) • East Asia: Completed (?) (Gao; old version of RegCM4) • North America: RCP8.5 available (Melissa-NARCCAP, old version of RegCM4)
What is happening to the model • Version 4.7.1 just released on the public web-site – few bugs corrected comapre to 4.7.0 • Convection-permitting version of the model fully operational • Output post-processing for CORDEX format (PY- CORDEX) • No further developments on RegCM4 • Implementation of a new dynamical core (both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) which will be the basis for RegCM5 (hopefully beta version to be tested at next year’s RegCM workshop)
AIMS of the Workshop • Special issue based on the first analysis of the RegCM CORDEX-CORE projections – Target journal: International Journal of Climatology – Deadline: December 2019 (IPCC deadline) • Finalize as well as possible the number of papers that will be in the special issue – Focus on cross-domain analysis • Identify lead author and teams of co-authors for each paper • Write an extended outline for the paper + examples of analysis – Presentation by each paper’s group on Friday
Papers identified so far • With GERICS (not to be included in the SI; based on both RegCM4 and REMO runs) – General evaluation paper, mean climate and change (Lead:GERICS) – Variability, hydroclimatic regimes and extremes (Lead: ICTP-Giorgi) – Climate hazards (Lead: ICTP-Coppola) – Added value (Lead: ICTP-Ciarlo)
Papers identified so far • For the SI (only based on RegCM): 1. Mean climate evaluation and change (Taleena, Lincoln, Cristiana Kudsia) 2. Monsoons (Moetasim;Shahe; Tereza, Cristiana, Chen, Lincoln) 3. Tropical storms & Low Level Jets (Abraham; Antonio; Arturo, Sushant, Diego) 4. Added value Europe (James, Emanuela) 5. Severe weather outbreaks (Russell) 6. Snow-driven runoff (Erika, Kudsia, Wang, Anubha) 7. Change in city climates & Hotspots (Filippo, Francesca, Rosmeri, Soon, Csaba, Sara, Marco, Sawadogo) 8. Climate and health – heat stress (Eun-soon; Adeniyi, Tong) 9. Extra-tropical cyclones & Explosive cyclones (Michelle; Marco, Rosa) 10. Land-atmosphere feedbacks (Marta; Aissaiou, Tinebeb; Maria, Diego; Fernand) 11. Impacts of fire potential (Taleena) 12. Changes in flood hazards (Fabio) & Flood maps (Rita; Wati, Natalia, Alo) 13. Extremes over Asia (Emanuela) 14. Water demand & availability (Tinebeb; Natalia ) 15. Solar and Wind energy (Sawadogo)
Papers identified so far • For the SI (only based on RegCM): 1. Mean climate evaluation and change (Taleena, Lincoln, Christiana; Kudsia; Wati) 2. Monsoons (Moetasim;Shahe; Tereza, Christiana, Chen, Lincoln, Adeniyi) 3. Tropical storms & Low Level Jets (Abraham; Antonio; Arturo, Sushant, Diego) 4. Added value Europe (James, Emanuela) 5. Severe weather outbreaks (Russell) 6. Snow-driven runoff (Erika, Kudsia, Wang, Anubha) 7. Change in city climates & Hotspots (Filippo, Francesca, Rosmeri, Soon, Csaba, Sara, Marco, Sawadogo, Tomas) 8. Climate and health – heat stress (Eun-soon; Adeniyi, Tong) 9. Extra-tropical cyclones & Explosive cyclones (Michelle; Marco, Rosa) 10. Land-atmosphere feedbacks (Marta; Aissaiou, Tinebeb; Maria, Diego; Fernand) 11. Impacts of fire potential (Taleena.) 12. Changes in flood hazards & Flood maps (Fabio; Rita; Wati, Natalia, Alok) 13. Extremes over Asia (Emanuela) 14. Water demand & availability (Tinebeb; Natalia) 15. Solar and Wind energy (Sawadogo) 16. DC and AC of precipitation (Fernand; Sara; Lincoln)
Thank you and have a productive week
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