The Coming Global Commercialization of Bio‐Butanol Bio-Based Chemicals Conference San Diego, CA January 2013 1
• PROMOTUM is a management consulting firm focused on the chemicals, fuels and materials industries. We help clients analyze markets and technology, develop strategy, and conduct business development. 2
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Is butanol the future of biofuels? To understand the future look to the past... 7
Then Now President Carter President Obama Oil Embargoes cause prices to rise Rising oil & gasoline prices Removal of lead from gasoline begins Efforts to lower GHGs begins Iran takes US hostages Iran threatens to block oil shipping lanes New standards strive to improve MPG New standards strive to improve MPG Environmental concerns lead to Ethanol oxygenate hits the “blend wall” introduction of catalytic converters US produces ~200MM Gal/Yr ethanol from US produces 300MM Gal/Yr butanol from ethylene for solvent & chemical uses propylene for solvent & chemical uses US starts making renewable ethanol from Bio-butanol emerges as biofuel option; corn for gasoline blending ("Gasohol”); utilizes retrofit ethanol plants; solvents & also as solvents & chemicals chemicals are lucrative initial markets 8
Characteristics Ethanol Butanol Origin Feedstock Ethylene Propylene Trend Petroleum>Biological Petroleum>Biological Applications Chemicals & Solvents Chemicals & Solvents Inks, Coatings, Adhesives Inks, Coatings, Adhesives Fuel Fuel Primarily... Ethyl acrylates Butyl acrylates Ethyl acetates Butyl acetates Chemistry 2 Carbons 4 Carbons As Fuel Current Greater Volumes Future Greater Utility Global Chemical Demand 1.6 BGY 1.5 BGY 9
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What does greater utility look like? • Higher energy content • Less hydrophilic • More compatible w/oil infrastructure • More compatible w/installed base of autos • Reduces blend vapor pressure • Less corrosive • iso-butanol works well with gasoline • 16% allowable blend rate overcomes “blend wall” 11
Physical Property i‐butanol n‐butanol Ethanol Density at 20°C (g/cm³) 0.802 0.810 0.794 Boiling Point at 1 atm (⁰C) 108 118 78 Water Solubility at 20⁰C (g/100ml) 8.0 7.7 Miscible Net Heat of Combustion (BTU/gal) 95,000 93,000 80,000 R+M/2 103.5 87 112 Blend RVP (psi at 100⁰F) 1 5.0 4.3 18-22 12
Where will butanol emerge? 13
Country/Region Existing etoh Renewable Available Current industry mandates Feedstock Compliance US X X X X Brazil X X X X Canada X X X X Europe X X Varies Varies China X X X Limbo India X X X No Columbia X X X X Thailand X X X Improving Japan X X Import/Waste X Africa Some Lead Substitute Varies X 14
Summary of Global Markets • Current leading ethanol markets will be tomorrow’s butanol markets • US and Brazil will lead • EU complicated by GHG, ILUC and food/feed cap • China stymied by food v. fuel issues • India continues to over commit/under perform • Wild Card = cellulosic sugars 15
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Bio‐butanol Technology i‐butanol n‐butanol Next Providers Generation Butamax X Gevo X Cobalt X Green Biologics X Eastman (Tetravitae) X Cathay X ZeaChem X Coskata X Phytonix X Butrolix X 18
Where could butanol have an immediate impact? 19
California Case Study 1. (August 6, 2012) Chevron Richmond, CA refinery (243,000 bbl/d) severely restricted by fire damage 2. Mid-September - Kettleman-Los Medanos pipeline (85,000 bbl/d) closes due to organic chloride contamination 3. September - Fall blend transition - PADD5 (at 26M BBLs) – Inventory drawn down for transition to winter blend 4. (October 1, 2012) - Temporary power outage shuts down ExxonMobil’s 149,000 bbl/d Torrance, CA refinery; for one day… 20
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California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG) also known as CaRBOB • has improved air quality and saved thousands of lives But CaRBOB, made regionally, has lower RVP and is not readily • available from distant refineries Because ethanol’s RVP is high and changes based on blend • concentration it cannot be comingled with other blends Butanol’s low RVP (lower than CaRBOB) means it can be blended • immediately to meet air quality requirements locally or afar, can be comingled with other blends and can be sent via pipeline to refiners or terminals – reducing susceptibility to upsets or manipulation 22
COMING SOON BIOBUTANOL: THE GAME CHANGER A Joint Study From: Chemical Strategies JVP International, Inc. Promotum From the developer of "Biobutanol: The Next Big Biofuel" (Nexant 2008) Scheduled for publication third quarter 2013 Reduced pricing for early subscribers. 23
Thank You Sam Nejame Promotum Sam@Promotum.com Twitter.com/renewables 24
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