The Burning Question Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 What would it take to 8,000 leave fuel worth trillions in the ground – and is 6,000 humanity up to it? 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000
About me � Author Journalist (Guardian/Kiln) UCL All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
The book – and the talk � 1 – Where are we at with climate change? � 2 – What solutions do and don’t work? � 3 – What are the barriers to action? � 4 – What should we do? All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
How are we doing solving climate change? All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Exponential curve All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Total CO2 emissions since 2000 12,000 Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 10,000 8,000 2000 2005 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
What if we stay on that curve? All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
4 degrees Celsius All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
= temperature increase since the Last Glacial Maximum All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
So instead we’re aiming for 2 degrees Celsius All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
…which is better but not “safe” TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern 5 5 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Risks to Large Negative Net High Many Increase for Most Negative Increase in Global Mean Temperature above circa 1990 (°C) Many Increase for Most Negative Regions in All Regions in All Metrics Metrics 4 4 3 3 Future 2 2 Positive or Positive or Negative Negative Negative Market 1 Negative Market 1 for Some Impacts; for Some Impacts; Regions; Majority Regions; Majority Positive of People Positive of People Very Risks to for Adversely Risks to for Adversely Low Low Some Increase Others Affected Increase Some Others Affected 0 0 Past -0.6 -0.6 Risks to Risk of Distribution Aggregate Risks of Large Risks to Risk of Distribution Aggregate Risks of Large Unique Extreme of Impacts Impacts Scale Unique Extreme of Impacts Impacts Scale and Weather Discontinuities and Weather Discontinuities Threatened Events Threatened Events Systems Systems All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
The remaining budget Future emissions Emissions so far 700 1600 billion tonnes 2000 of CO2 billion tonnes of billion tonnes of CO2 CO2 Double coin- fm ip scenario (75% chance of success) Coin- fm ip scenario (50% chance of success) All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Total CO2 emissions since 1850 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
The remaining budget 10000 40 Billion tonnes of CO 2 0 0 1850 Today 2100 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
The remaining budget 45 10000 Billion tonnes of CO 2 0 0 1850 Today 2100 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Might we run out of fuel? Coal 3000 Gas 2500 Billion tonnes of CO 2 Oil 2000 Coal 2000 1500 1000 Gas 430 Coin- fm ip 1600 500 Double Oil coin- fm ip 630 700 0 Proven reserves Remaining carbon budgets All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Might we run out of fuel? 50000 4000 (Coal) 3500 40000 Billion tonnes of CO 2 3000 Gas 2500 30000 2000 Coal 20000 1500 Oil 1000 10000 500 Gas Oil 0 0 Fuel Coin- fm ip Double Oil & gas Coin- fm ip Double resources budget coin- fm ip resources budget coin- fm ip All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Are the global talks on track? 80 Business as usual Global greenhouse gas emissions 60 (gigatonnes CO 2 e) Current pledges 40 20 Needed for 2ºC 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
What solutions do and don’t work? All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
What drives the curve? 6 CO 2 5 4 GDP/Person d e x e 3 d n Population I 2 1 CO 2 /Energy Energy / GDP 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Population 8000 2.5 ) s n 7000 o i l A l i Population m n 6000 n ( u n 2.0 a o 5000 l i t % a l u c 4000 h p a o n p 3000 g 1.5 l e a b 2000 o l G Annual % increase 1000 0 1.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
A ffl uence (economic growth) 8000 6 ) d a e 5 7000 h / A ( GDP 4 A ffm uence n 6000 n u e 3 a c 5000 l n % e 2 u c 4000 ffm h 1 a a n e 3000 g g 0 e a r 2000 e Annual change -1 v A 1000 -2 0 -3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Energy intensity (e ffi ciency) 500 3 (Tonnes oil equivalent / GDP ) 2 400 Annual % change Energy intensity Energy intensity 1 0 300 -1 200 -2 -3 100 Annual change -4 0 -5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Rebounds and ripples Get a more e ffj cient car Drive more Use less Rebound and/or fuel type 1 Bigger economy, more Save Lower global investment and money oil price in e ffj ciency More demand for roads; Rebound More oil use Invested via suburbia more type 3 bank or fund elsewhere viable; bigger Rebound houses, etc. type 4 Spend it on Rebound other things type 2 Carbon footprint Economic activity All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Carbon intensity (clean energy) (tonnes carbon / tonne oil equivalent) 1.0 7 6 5 0.8 Annual % change Carbon intensity 4 Carbon intensity 3 2 0.6 1 0 0.4 -1 -2 -3 0.2 Annual change -4 -5 0.0 -6 1960 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
New energy capacity 2000–2011 2500 Oil 2000 Million tonnes of oil equivalent Natural gas 1500 1000 Coal 500 0 Fossil fuels Renewables All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
An age-old feedback 600 WWW 550 Internet Solar & wind Nuclear 500 Hydro Global energy use in exajoules Microchip 450 400 Nuclear 350 energy Gas 300 Television 250 200 Commercial Oil 150 aviation Vacuum Gasoline 100 tube Electric engine Steam motor Coal 50 engine Biomass 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 20002008 All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Text All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
x Text All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
Who’s responsible for fossil fuel use? End consumers? Industry? Fossil fuel sector? All charts and facts from The Burning Question by Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)
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