Texas Wildfire Response Project TexFire Initiative II: Location - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Texas Wildfire Response Project TexFire Initiative II: Location Analysis and Business Case May 8, 2014 Jorge Gonzalez and Shawn Minnich Advisors: Dr. Dick Barr and Mr. Bill Plummer

Texas Wildfires

April 19, 2011, Strawn TX (South of Possum Kingdom Lake) Background • Why is it important? • High Season in 2011 • 31,453 fires • 4,011,709 acres • 38,962 homes saved • 2,947 homes destroyed • 13,058 other structures saved • 2,804 other structures destroyed Bastrop Case or The Perfect Storm Started Sept. 4 Ended Sept. 30 Devoured 32,000 acres 1700 Home & Businesses $325M in Damage 2 Deaths

The Problems • There are fires that could have been prevented or extinguished sooner • What aircraft do we use? • Where to base our SEATs • How much will it cost us to set up this project? • Is the project going to work?

Project Definition • SMU research project for the creation of an aerial response system to efficiently assist with the suppression of wildfires within the State of Texas. • Currently, the State of Texas: – Limited aerial firefighting capability – Relies on national assets for aerial wildfire suppression There is an opportunity to establish an aerial initial wildfire attack unit capable of quicker response times resulting in less wildfire damage.

Project Goals • Research to find fire history and understand wildfires • Understand and Implement the current process • Find an aircraft suitable for fire fighting • Build a model to allocate the SEATs • Build a Business Case for the project • Prove that the project will in fact work

Aerial Firefighting Aircraft Procurement and Procedures • TX does not own assets • Numerous agencies involved • 1 day minimum response

Firefighting Aircraft Types – Pro’s and Con’s

…and the recommended choice: SEATs • Single Engine Air Tanker • Air Tractor AT-802F • Manufactured in Olney, TX • 200mph when loaded • 4 hour endurance • 800 gallon capacity • 4180 flight hours, 2011

Airfield Requirements and Locations For Firefighting Ops: • 3000’ RWY length • Ready access to fuel and water • Priority over other air traffic Airfields to the right have TFS SEAT plans in place For Basing: • Hangar availability • Maintenance space • Administrative space

Understanding the Wildfire Threat Many factors contribute to Texas wildfires • Diverse landscape • Wide range of surface fuels • Diverse population density • Extended draught conditions – since 2010 • High wind speeds - 20-30mph common • Ignition sources – Lightning, Equipment, People

Texas Vegetation *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Texas Surface Fuels *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Characteristic Rate of Spread *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Texas Wildfire Threat *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Wildfire Ignition Density and Cause (2005-2009 Source: TxWARP*) *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Large Wildfires vs. Population Density (2001-2009 Source: TxWARP) *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Facility Location Model in GAMS • Mixed Integer Program • CPLEX Solver • 5 primary equations • Combined run for Distance Only & Distance+TorchScore • Runtime - 18 seconds

Facility Location Model Facilities Optimized Airfield Counties • Optimized for Distance Opened Selection Serviced 2 CLL – College Station 142 SNK - Snyder 112 • Relative uniform distribution PSN – Palestine 84 3 PVW – Plainview 80 T82 – Fredricksburg 90 AMA – Amarillo 35 4 BPG – Big Spring 69 GVT – Greenville 72 VCT - Victoria 78

Facility Location Model Facilities Optimized Airfield Counties • Optimized for Distance + Opened Selection Serviced CDS – Childress 170 TorchScore 2 EBG – Edinburg 84 • TorchScore combines AMA – Amarillo 61 3 EBG – Edinburg 44 population density and MWL – Mineral Wells 149 wildfire threat to optimize AMA – Amarillo 37 4 placement EBG – Edinburg 43 MWL – Mineral Wells 127 • Not as uniform-but that’s OK ODO - Odessa 47

Large Wildfires vs. Population Density (2001-2009 Source: TxWARP) *TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Previous and New Aircraft Basing Assumption • Maximized statewide coverage • Minimized statewide response time • Maximimized Coverage and Minimized Response Times • Optimal Number of Facilities • Fire Damage Accounted

Business Case • Mostly provided by similar businesses and aircraft dealerships. • Bastrop case insurance expenses up to date sum up to over $350 million. • If project is implemented, 44% reduction of damage can pay the project 14.36 times!

Simulation Against 2009 Fires • 19 Fires: > 500 acres, < 32 hours actual contain time, and no air tanker use • 1 aircraft • Included “Time to Initial Drop” analysis and decision • Repeated drop cycles up to actual control time • Used values to determine reduction in acres burned • Less Acres Burned = Less $ Damages

Simulation Against 2009 Fires Results • 54% average reduction acres burned per fire • 48% reduction of over all acres burned (22,600 to 11, 700) • Transit Time – avg. 1.2hrs Drop Cycle – avg. 0.7hrs 2009 0 & 1 Day Cumulative Acres Burned Linear (Unattended) Linear (Actual Acres Burned) Linear (Simulated Acres Burned w/ 1 aircraft) 45000 40000 35000 30000 Acres Burned 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 5 34 57 80 80 84 111 117 149 150 153 182 187 191 200 229 257 288 317 341 350 373 -5000 Cumulative Burn Hours

Conclusions Positives • SEATS will help reduce the wildfire impact • Avg. 1hr response much more ideal than 1 day • Feasible solution Potential Issues • High start-up costs / Funding • High use / Low Use years – No fires are a good thing! Unless you’re in the firefighting business – Need Alternative uses • Current SEAT contracting structure • Concurrence, coordination, cooperation, and support from state agencies will be crucial

Alternate Uses? • Can aircraft be reconfigured for multi-purpose use? • Aerial fire fighting • Reforestation efforts • Agricultural spraying • West Nile spraying • Border protection/surveillance

Questions? Brian Covish, waves to fire bombers from the roof of his home on Cedar Lane in the Blue Bonnet Acres subdivision west of Bastrop, Texas on Monday, September 05, 2011. (AP Photo/Austin American-Statesman, RODOLFO GONZALEZ)