Trends in International Terrorism and the Changing Character of Contemporary Warfare Timothy D. Hoyt Professor of Strategy and Policy U.S. Naval War College The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
What is terrorism? • “The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.” (FBI) • “…the calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological.” (Department of Defense) • “…premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents…” (Department of State) The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
How has terrorism changed? • Four waves of terrorism • Late 19 th century: Radical transnational social movements • Early 20 th century: Radical nationalist movements • Mid-20 th century: Communist and other ideological movements • Late 20 th century: Religious and apocalyptic groups • Lethality has increased exponentially • Widespread availability of powerful commercial explosives and high-powered firearms • Possibility of terrorist acquisition of more lethal weapons • Aum Shirikyu (Japan) • Recent claims regarding ISIS • Mass communications – transportation, social media • Facilitates transnational mobilization and horizontal escalation The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
The US and the war on terror • Problems of definition and objective • Eliminate terrorism? • Eliminate all terrorist groups? • Eliminate specific terrorist groups? • Eliminate root causes of terrorism? • Eliminate violent extremism? • Protect the U.S.? • Protect the U.S. and specific partners? The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
Macro-level trends • Terrorism rose from 2001-2008, and then declined abruptly for a couple of years. • From 2010-2014, the number of global deaths from terrorism increased by 80%; deaths declined by 10% in 2015, and appear to continue to be declining. Declines were particularly marked in Iraq, Nigeria, and Pakistan. • Over seventy percent of the deaths from terrorism in 2014 and 2015 occur in five countries: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria. • Four groups are responsible for almost 75% of terrorist deaths: the Islamic State/ISIS, Boko Haram, Taliban, and Al Qaeda. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
Terrorism’s regional focus: Middle East, South Asia, Africa • 93% of terrorist deaths since 1989 occur in states where governments practice political terror and repression. • 90% of terrorist deaths occur in states that are already engaged in some form of internal or international conflict. The major victims of terrorism are states with intense sectarian, ideological, ethnic, or social conflicts. The majority of victims are civilians in those countries. • 57% of all deaths from terrorism since 2000 occurred in Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan. In each country, internal conflicts with the regime overlap with sectarian and ethnic conflicts. • 274 known groups carried out attacks in 2015. • Of these 103 failed to kill anyone. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
Drivers of Global Terrorism • U.S. military intervention in the Middle East and elsewhere • Regional civil war between Sunni and Shi’a religious elements (especially in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, but also present in Afghanistan and Pakistan) • Collapse of Arab governance • Erosion of governance elsewhere • Escalating cycles of corruption and repression • Immigration from the Muslim world to Europe; marginalization and non- integration of Muslim populations within European political communities • Continued adherence to extremist apocalyptic ideologies, particularly in the Sunni religious communities. • HOWEVER: these drivers are not exclusive to the Muslim world. We see extremism emerging in other faiths, ethnic groups, and communities from similar causes and perceptions, as well as population pressures. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
Terrorism in the West • Since 2002, only 0.5% of terrorist deaths have occurred in the developed world. • BUT… In 2015, the number of deaths in Western countries increased by 650% - from 77 to 577. ISIS was responsible for roughly half of them. 21 of 34 members of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) suffered terrorist attacks in 2015 • There have only been about a dozen lethal jihadist attacks in the US since 2001 • In each case, the perpetrator was a US citizen or legal resident; they worked alone or in pairs; and there has been no evidence of a formal connection with or training from Al Qaeda or ISIS (although there may have been radicalization through social media) • According to some reports, there have been more deaths in the U.S. from domestic ultra-right wing terrorism than from jihadists The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
What explains changes in terrorist activity?? • 2001-2004: Al Qaeda capabilities declined due to a ruthless international campaign against them after 9/11 • 2004-2007: terrorism spikes in Iraq, reaching 2500 civilian deaths per month in 2007. • 2008-2011: Terrorism declines in Iraq, but accelerates elsewhere due to increased Al Qaeda franchising and revitalization of Taliban • 2011-2015: US withdrawal from Iraq and drawdown in Afghanistan, collapse of Libya, rise and fall of Boko Haram and ISIS • 2016: trends appear to be that overall terrorism deaths are decreasing, but it is becoming geographically more widespread. Afghanistan is a prominent exception – terrorism deaths were up almost 30% in 2015, and battlefield deaths were up 34%. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
The changing character of warfare • Warfare between states changed significantly in the 20 th century • Increasing lethality of technology • Increased effectiveness of personnel (training and technical skills) • Increased impact of organization for mobilization and military operations • Critical issue of noncombatant immunity • Most wars since 1945, however, are within states • Fought by irregular combatants as well as regular forces • Insurgents may have aid from states opposed to existing regimes • Insurgents may have help from other like-minded groups • Insurgents have learned the value of protracting conflicts The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
Late 20 th and early 21 st century warfare • Because of these changes, internal warfare has become markedly more brutal – and effective • Terrorism increasingly becoming a routine tactic in internal conflicts • Terrorism is more lethal than previously • Terrorism is used as part of a new and different approach to protracted war • Coerce public support (or non-compliance), rather than win affection • Delegitimize regime and its security policies • Create cycles violence leading to overreaction and repression • Fight in highly populated areas • End results: • Transnational forces can destabilize conflicts that are settling • Demonstration effect and shared ideological outlooks can accelerate transnational support • Terrorism is increasing as a common tactic in internal wars • Non-combatant immunity will be threatened on a regular basis • Path to victory may be more Lenin (fear and intimidation) than Mao (winning support) The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
ISIS January 2015 – October 2016: a truly terrorist state The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author alone, and not the US Naval War College, the US Navy, or any other organization of the US government.
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