technology for massive electricity production Russian Academy of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Photovoltaics: a solar technology for massive electricity production Russian Academy of Scienc Antonio Luque Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia First International Forum Renewable Energy REENFOR-2013 "Towards raising energy and economic efficiencies” Moscow, 22-23 October, 2013

Outline • The grounds of the PV technology • The necessity of sustainable energy • Forecast • 3 rd generation solar cells • Conclusions Russian Academy of Scienc

Traditional PV installations Russian Academy of Scienc

Moura (Portugal), 46 MW Russian Academy of Scienc Installed by the Spanish Company “Acciona”

Outline • The grounds of the PV technology • The necessity of sustainable energy • Forecast • 3 rd generation solar cells • Conclusions Russian Academy of Scienc

The farthest precedent: Becquerel • A. E. Becquerel, “Recherches sur les effets de la radiation chimique de la lumière solaire au moyen de Taken from M.A.Green, Proc. 21 st courants éléctriques” Comptes PVSC , 1-8 (1990) Rendues à l’Academie des Sciences 9, 145-149, (1839) Russian Academy of Scienc

Einstein explains the effect 1921 Nobel Laureate in Physics for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the photoelectric effect. Albert Einstein, “Über einen die Erzeugung und Erwandlung des Lichtes betreffenden heuristischen Sichtspunkt ” Annalen der Physik , 17 , 132 (1905) Russian Academy of Scienc

The first “effective” Si cell The New York Times: 26 April 1954 “Vast Power is Tapped by Battery Using Sand Ingredient” “ …may mark the beginning of a new era, leading eventually to the realization of one of mankind’s more cherished dream — the harnessing of the almost limitedness energy of the sun for the uses of civilisation ” . • Developed at Bell Labs (Murray Hill, NJ). • On 6 cm 2 wafers (area not said) • Diffused junction (B on As. 2.5  m?) • All back contacted • Efficiency 6% D.M. Chapin (center), C.S. Fuller (right) (15 times over preceding cells) and G.L. Pearson (left) , “A New Silicon • Field test in Americus, Georgia. P-N Junction Photocell for Converting (abandoned because of birds!) Solar Radiation into Electrical Power”, • Successfully used (diffused n/p Si cells) in Sputnik in 1957 J. Appl. Phys. 25 676 (1954). Russian Academy of Scienc

The grounds of the PV effect • Photons pump electrons from valence to Electrons conduction band CB out • appropriate E Fc Electrons eV h  1 contacts insure E Fv in conduction band VB electrons are delivered to load and recovered by valence band Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline • The grounds of the PV technology • The necessity of sustainable energy • Forecast • 3 rd generation solar cells • Conclusions Russian Academy of Scienc

Few obvious statements • The incorporation of 2 billion of inhabitants to the consumption pattern of the 1 billon in the developed world will require unprecedented effort in the management of resources and wastes to allow for sustainability • Solar energy is the only sustainable source of energy we can count on. Coal, and to a bigger extent uranium (unless accepting the plutonium cycle), oil and gas have limited duration and all involve unbearable wastes. • Photovoltaics is the best way of exploiting solar energy. Unlike other technologies based on the XIX century science, photovoltaics relies on the XXI century science. Very high efficiencies will eventually be possible and this is a must to exploit at low cost a resource that is huge but diluted. Russian Academy of Scienc

HDI and per capita energy use 1 0.9 Human Development Index 0.8 South & East Asia 0.7 Pacific 0.6 West Europe 0.5 East Europe 0.4 Africa 0.3 Middle East 0.2 M&S America 0.1 N America 0 0 5000 10000 15000 Power use per capita (kWh/year) Russian Academy of Scienc http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Demand_for_oil

Energy balances Anthropogenic references 8.900 Mtep/year artificial 1.100 from biomass 10.000 Mtep/year in total ~ 12.8 TW Terrestrial energies Geothermal: 30 TW Tidal: 3 TW Solar Energy Extraterrestrial: 173,000 TW On biosphere: 89,000 TW Matter may be recicled; Not (free) energy: degraded after use TB Johansson et al. Eds, Renewable Energy , Island Press, Washington, 1993 Solar ineraction Solar Solar Thousednds of Ej Thousednds of Ej Air: wind energ. Water: hydropower Wind Wind Solar : light & heat Russian Academy of Scienc José M. Martínez -Val; UPM- Cátedra Club de Roma, presentación 12/05/05

Many technologies, increasing efficienies Russian Academy of Scienc NREL-Revision 20120209

Energy and food • Emerged land for crops (today) 13% • Food to edible calories eff. (today) 0.03% • Potential land for crops 27% • PV ground efficiency by 2050 10% • PV=1/3 electricity at (10%) <0.2% Russian Academy of Scienc

Outline • The grounds of the PV technology • The necessity of sustainable energy • Forecast • 3 rd generation solar cells • Conclusions Russian Academy of Scienc

The 2001 Luque’s market forecast exercise Russian Academy of Scienc

PV experience curve Russian Academy of Scienc Solar Generation 6: Empowering the world, 2011

The 2001 Luque’s market forecast exercise Russian Academy of Scienc

Yearly PV market: predictions and reality Yearly Market 1000 Forecast in 1998 Elasticity-learning model PIB industr. world 100 Yearly Market (GWp/year) 0.059% 0.029% 0.015% 10 Si=1.33, C=$2.5B Si=1.55, C=$2.5B Si=1.33, C=$5B 1 Si=1.55, C=$5B Si=1.33, C=$10B Si=1.55, C=$10B Real market 0.1 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Russian Academy of Scienc 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model," Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

Yearly PV costs: predictions in 1998 Prices 4 Inflation multiplier in 2010: 1.34 Si=1.33, Cs=$2.5B 3,5 Si=1.55, Cs=$2.5B 3 Si=1.33, Cs=$5B Si=1.55, Cs=$5B Price ($/Wp) 2,5 Si=1.33, Cs=$10B Si=1.55, Cs=$10B 2 1,5 PIB ind. world 1 0.015% 0.029% 0,5 0.059% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Russian Academy of Scienc 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model," Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

PV installations: predictions and reality 10000 Forecast in 1998 1000 Total installed power (GWp) 100 Pessimistic Probable 10 Optimistic High LCOE 1 Quick learning Real 0.1 RIGES Updated model 0.01 1990 2010 2030 2050 Year TB Johansson et al. Eds, Renewable Energy , Island Press, Washington, 1993 Russian Academy of Scienc 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model," Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

An excerpt of the 2001 Luque’s market study Russian Academy of Scienc

12% by 2030? • IPCC Mitigation WG III penetration: 1.4% • 2030 central scenario penetration: 1.6% • 2030 optimistic scenario penetration: 4.4% • 12% by 2030 implies 100 GW/year Russian Academy of Scienc A. Luque and S. Hegedus, "Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering," 2nd. ed Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Yearly PV market: predictions and reality Yearly Market 1000 Forecast in 1998 Elasticity-learning model PIB industr. world 100 Yearly Market (GWp/year) 0.059% 0.029% 0.015% 10 Si=1.33, C=$2.5B Si=1.55, C=$2.5B Si=1.33, C=$5B 1 Si=1.55, C=$5B Si=1.33, C=$10B Si=1.55, C=$10B Real market 0.1 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Russian Academy of Scienc 1A. Luque, "Photovoltaic markets and costs forecast based on a demand elasticity model," Progress in Photovoltaics: Res. Appl. 9, 303-312 (2001).

The regulatory frame in Spain (Royal Decree 436/2004) • photovoltaic installations may inject to the grid the totality of the energy produced (not only the excess). • Tariff for power until 100 kWp: 575% (of the regulated tariff) during the first 25 years and 460% form them on (forever). • The regulated tariff for 2004 is 7,2072 c € /KWh. Thus PV is paid at 0.414 € /kWh (today above 0.42 € /kWh) • The tariff and incentives will be revised when PV electricity is 150 MWp Then every 4 years. • Changed into no cap by the the end of 2006. • Revision in Royal Decree 1578/2008 : less than 0.32 € /kWh, cap <500 MW • Since 2011. No feed in tariff at all. PV pergola in Prime Minster residence with 41.4 kWp installed en 2000 by IES/UPM. Here in its inauguration the first Royal Decree was announced Russian Academy of Scienc

Photovoltaic biggest plants in 2008 5000 World volume of sales (MWp). Average yearly growth between 4500 1996-2004 4000 Photovoltaics: 33.4% 3500 Semiconductors: 6.2% 3000 In 2004: PV is 1.7% of 2500 semiconductors 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year http://www.pvresources.com last update 28/10/08 /

Data on the possibility of penetration of PV in the Spanish electric system Russian Academy of Scienc

The largest PV plants today Russian Academy of Scienc http://www.pvresources.com Latest update: 9/10/2013