technologies in Shanghai and Bali COP23 Side Event, November 6 th , - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Local perspectives on mitigation technologies in Shanghai and Bali COP23 Side Event, November 6 th , Presentation by Jenny Lieu, Sussex University, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) Stefan Bößner, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

A GENDA • Introduction to TRANSrisk • Shanghai buildings case study • Bali biogas case study • Final thoughts

C ASE S TUDY C OUNTRIES : A REAS STUDIED Overarching Research Question: What are the costs, benefits and risks & uncertainties associated with transitions pathways for climate change mitigation policies? Asia 12. China (SPRU) 13. India Americas (SPRU) Africa 1. Canada 14. Indonesia (SPRU) 11. Kenya (SEI) (SEI) Europe 2. Chile 3. Sweden (SEI) (CLAPESU 4. Netherlands (JIN) C) 5. UK (SPRU) 6. Poland (IBS) 7. Austria (Uni Graz) 8. Switzerland (ETHZ) 9. Spain (BC3) 10. Greece (NTUA/ UPRC)

CITIES & A IR P OLLUTION IN C HINA • The growth of economy and rising income improves indoor comfort • Urbanization and population growth air pollution (smog) is a serious problem in mega cites • Increasing extreme climate events such as heat waves cold trigger more energy Shanghai population: 25,202,000 consumption Source: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/

A IR QUALITY : CITY COMPARISONS Social persepctive: public concern for air pollution in Chinese cities Source:‘Green Power Purchasing Intention of Chinese Consumers’ CREIA, 2016

E NERGY MIX IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Figure 1: Residential sector energy consumption in selected non-OECD regions by energy source, 2012 and 2040 (percent of total) Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/buildings.cfm

P OLICY M IX : TARGET SETTING National policy perspective  Five Year Plan (FYP) (2016-2020)  Retrofits of existing building: target of 5% per year  Energy efficiency for new buildings: target of 20% per year  Renewable energy mix: target of 6% in 2020 (4% in 2015)  National Determined Contribution (NDC)  Increase share of green building to 50% for new buildings by 2020  Promoting the application of renewable energy in buildings

L OCAL L EVEL P OLICIES Local policy perspective  In Shanghai subsidies for: retrofitting building, green buildings, greening roof projects, and renewable energy

C ITIZEN ’ S SOLAR POWER : G REEN -L IGHT Y EAR EXAMPLE  ‘Teacher’ Li's home was the first to install solar PV in Minhang District, Shanghai in 2014  Technology perspective: total installed capacity 1995 watts (19,800 RMB/~2560 EUR) 9.92RBM = watt  ‘4 in 1 application’: power generation, shade, clothes and rainwater collecting (30,000 RMB/~3880 EUR) https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F_vCbPCxt4vlux69yXAYZw

G REEN -L IGHT Y EAR E XAMPLE Economic perspective: Benefits of household PV power • generation 1. Subsidies: the state subsidies 0.42 yuan/kWh + local government subsidies 2. Power generation for own use: Shanghai electricity peak price: 0.617 RMB/ kWh. 3. Selling electricity: Shanghai floating price in 0.41 RMB/kWh. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jEu52OESUOlhezgKsH8fMA

C ITIZEN ’ S SOLAR POWER : G REEN -L IGHT Y EAR EXAMPLE Social perspective: learning and education  Green Light Years initiative with the Minhang District authority and  the Minhang District Science and Technology Association planned and funded a low-carbon education field visit for children https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq8fwRCOzUv4h2Pe-HyxPw

P OTENTIAL R ISKS OF S CALING OUT Implementation barriers  Dependent on government investment for urban building retrofit  Affordability  Education and initiative from individuals Negative outcomes  Scaling up issues and grid imbalance  Impact on urban landscape  End of life waste

L EARNING FROM C HINA & S TEPS FORWARD Learning from China • Air pollution and urban development links • Local social needs vs. and national needs • Citizen participation China’s NDC: Promoting a ‘Low - Carbon Way of Life’ • Education for all citizens on consumption • Public institutes to lead on: • government buildings and other public buildings • moderate consumption, curb extravagance and waste

R ISK & U NCERTAINTIES : P OTENTIAL F UTURES Thank-you! J e n n y L i e u T R A N S r i s k C o - Pr i n c i p a l I n v e s t i g a t o r j . l i e u @ s u s s e x . a c . u k

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI , I NDONESIA  +250 million inhabitants, 491 regions, 77,000 government units  Prominent fossil fuel regime (largest coal exporter, 7 th largest gas exporter) makes it 7 th largest GHG emitter  Policy objectives: energy security (boost indigenous energy resources) & tackling climate change  Signatory to Paris Agreement  Biogas can help to meet targets and to help rural populations

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI , I NDONESIA  Bali quite well developed, but pockets of (energy) poverty exist Although tourism is most important  revenue factors, agriculture is largest employer (and tourist attraction)  Biogas benefits include  Waste treatment (plant & animal)  Alleviate energy poverty  Reduce emaissions  Provide by-products such as bio slurry All subsequent photos by SEI and Su-re.co research  Reduce household tasks

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI , I NDONESIA Formulating theoretical frameworks & research • questions Two multi-stakeholder workshops carried out in • 2015 and 2016 Extensive field work in October 2016 (interviews, • focus group discussions) Literature review & contextual analysis •

B IOGAS IN B ALI , ALIGNING THE STARS Policy perspective:  Right policies and objectives should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Photo: REUTERS, Christian Hartmann

B IOGAS IN B ALI , ALIGNING THE STARS Policy perspective:  Right policies and objectives should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:  Technology should be adapted to locality, climate and user needs  Functioning value chain

B IOGAS IN B ALI , ALIGNING THE STARS Policy perspective:  Right policies and objectives should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:  Technology should be adapted to locality, climate and user needs  Functioning value chain User perspective:  Education, information & capacity

B IOGAS IN B ALI , ALIGNING THE STARS Policy perspective:  Right policies and objectives should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:  Technology should be adapted to locality, climate and user needs  Functioning value chain User perspective:  Education, information & capacity Economic perspective:  Co-benefits, maintenance services & participation

L ESSONS LEARNT FROM TWO CASES • Local culture and context matter but is often overlooked • Challenges are manifold and need to be addressed to avoid reverting back • That needs both comprehensive (star alignment) but also differentiated approaches (adapted to local needs) • Once all these and other risks challenges are overcome, local-bottom-up action can play vital role in tackling climate change

L O C AL PERSPEC T I VES O N MI T I GAT I O N I N S H ANGH AI A ND B ALI T EC H NO LO GI ES Thank you very much for your attention! Contacts: Jenny Lieu Email: j.lieu@sussex.ac.uk Twitter:@transrisk_EU Stefan B ößner Email: Stefan.boessner@sei-international.org Twitter: @sboessner