4 th Annual National Bank of Cambodia Macroeconomic Conference Technological Progress and its Impacts on Access to Finance Dina Chhorn (Mr.) Researcher, Research Group Theoretical and Applied Economics (France) PhD Candidate in Economics, University of Bordeaux (France) Theara Chhorn (Mr.) Researcher, Muang Thai Life Assurance PCL (Thailand) Seyha Khek (Mr.) Cabinet, National Bank of Cambodia, Cambodia December 2017
Focus on: “Dynamic Stage of Technological Progress and Financial Loan Portfolio in Cambodia: Convergence or Divergence ?”
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion What I am going to talk very briefly today: • Why this project does matter? • What others have found? • What and how I have found? • Concluding remarks and policy recommendations 1
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion (1) Access to financial products and (2) Nearly 80 % of Cambodian services (financial inclusion) such as population, living in rural areas, can - transactions, payments, saving, access to credit and not many people credit and insurance - is a key to to transactions, payments and insurance. promote economic growth in Cambodia. “Four themes of financial and technological progress in Cambodia” (3) To access to financial inclusion, (4) Yet, 2/3 of population is adult we still depend on traditional ways that can access to mobile phone at micro / firm levels (Offices, staffs, (90%) and internet (48%). => ATMs, bank account, credit / debit Technological innovation in cards, etc). => High cost => rural Cambodia: how its impacts? areas & the poorest households? 2
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion Brief review of financial sectors : Financial inclusion: accessing by individuals and business to useful and affordable financial products and services – credits, savings, insurance, transactions, and payments – in a responsible and sustainable way. To target the poorest households by reducing poverty and boosting prosperity (World Bank, 2017): Credits and saving: 2/3 Cambodia households Accessing to insurance, online transactions (sources: MFI/Banks, private loan provider, and payments: is in rising trends but it relatives, other sources). represents a small share of population who Loan and deposit accounts with commercial located in urban in major provinces (Phnom banks : 248 .73 adults (loan) and 48.11 (Deposit) Penh, Siem Reap, Sihanouk, Battambang , …). among 1000 adults. Account at financial institution and ATMs : Strong rising of micro-finance Representing a small proportion of total institutions comparing to commercial population (13 among 100,000 adults, banks, specialized banks and financial 15.29 adults for income richest 60% and leasing companies. 8.83 adults for income poorest 49%). 2
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion Number of Banks and MFIs Bank – Net profit Bank – credit by business line Other Financial Financial Mining and Credit Cards Rental and 450 80 Service Institutions Quarrying 0% 167 Operational 8% 3% 1% Hotel and Leasing … 400 62 Utilities Restaurans 1% Other Lending 350 2013 2014 2015 42 6% 40 38 2% In Million USD Manufacturing 30 300 Personal 25 8% 17 Lending Units 250 77 Construction 71 5% 0 8% Agriculture, 200 392 Forecasting and 314 35 36 36 150 Fishing 241 -40 10% 100 206 11 11 9 -46 8 6 2 150 Real Estate 50 92 Activities Transport and 65 5% Storage 0 -80 Commercial Specialized Microfinance Financial 1% Information 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Banks Banks Institution Leasing Media and Telecom Companies Wholesale Retail Trade 1% Owner - Occupied Net Profit USD Percentage Change (%) Trade 16% Housing Only … 17% MFIs – Net profit MFIs – Loan and Deposit (million USD) MFIs – credit by business line Others Household 140 80 1% 26% 70 70 120 3023 Agriculture Loans 63 60 35% 100 In Million USD Deposits 50 48 80 2029 42 40 39 39 133 60 30 90 1299 1309 40 Construction 20 4% 53 894 20 874 38 10 27 17 640 0 0 432 426 307 270 Transportation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 113 Services 40 10 4% Trade and 11% Commerce Net Profit USD Percentage Change (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 19% 3 Source: National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) 2015 Annual Supervision Reports
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion Brief review of financial sectors and technological progress : Accessing to financial services and Modern ways Traditional ways at products by new technological at macro level micro / firm level innovation: help to promote banking and financial sectors to more efficient Top class risk management and helps to reduce operational cost. To benefit the poorest population: Middle class Key questions: how technological progress in macro level help to increase technological role of traditional financial way to Lowest class promote financial inclusion? 4
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion Fixed - telephone subscription Population access to Internet Account at financial institution 18 700000 4.50 120000 0.7 3.9 15.29 3.6 16 4.00 96,706 0.6 600000 100000 13.29 14 3.50 500000 0.5 10.88 2.8 12 3.00 80000 2.5 66,111 2.3 10 8.45 0.4 400000 2.50 8.83 3.714.345.236.157.15 60000 8 1.6 1.4 2.00 0.3 300000 6 35,666 40000 1.50 29,734 0.2 4 200000 22,000 0.010.741.33 1.00 16,594 2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 20000 8,450 0.1 100000 0.50 780 0 0 0 0 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Automated teller machines (ATMs) (per 100,000 adults) Fixed-telephone subscriptions Account at a financial institution, income, richest 60% (% ages 15+) Broadband internet subscribers Fixed-telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants Account at a financial institution, income, poorest 40% (% ages 15+) Fixed broadband internet subscribers per 100 people Mobile telephone cellular subscribers Mobile network coverage and internet Comparison between loan and bank account 25000000 160.00 120 30.00 300.00 25.6 133.9 132.7 248.73 133.0 99.00 140.00 128.5 124.9 100 25.00 250.00 216.16 20000000 19.0 120.00 200.00 80 20.00 172.40 94.2 100.00 148.68 15000000 14.0 108.00 129.37 150.00 60 15.00 112.65 80.00 99.05 56.7 10000000 100.00 76.73 40 10.00 6.8 60.00 44.3 4.9 30.4 3.1 40.00 50.00 20 5.00 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 5000000 18.8 0.2 48.11 25.20 28.06 29.63 30.09 35.31 37.61 42.43 1.1 1.8 3.0 3.9 6.6 8.012.7 0.0 20.00 0.00 0 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Loan Accounts with Commercial Banks Per 1,000 Adults Mobile network coverage percent of the population Number of Bank Accounts per 1,000 adults Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions Deposit Accounts with Commercial Banks Per 1000 Adults Percentage of Individuals using the Internet, per 100 people Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 5 Source: All graphics are compiled from The Telecommunication Development Sector (ITU-D), Retrieved URL: http://www.itu.int/en/Pages/default.aspx
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion Objective of this research project: i. What is the dynamic impact of technological progress on financial inclusion in Cambodia? And, ii. Does its dynamic stage represent convergence or divergence hypothesis during the observed period and in the foreseeable future? 7
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion The existing literatures: Technological progress and its impacts on access to finance: • (+) Technological in micro / firm level in financial and banking sectors (explained by accessing to ATMs, POS terminals, debit cards, credit cards, etc.) and macro level (explained by accessing to smart phone mobile, internet, internet banking, mobile banking, telephone banking) • => (+) Higher financial inclusion => (+) Economic growth and better welfare of whole population (also the poorest households) Is it holding a huge promise in 41 commercial and specialized banks and 87 MFI institutions in Cambodia in short and long run? 8
Why it does matter? Others’ Findings My Findings Conclusion How I find it? • Raw dataset based on cross-sectional firms data: 87 – During time interval of 2009 and 2016 (N = 7 years) – With 588 total observations MFIs 41 • Principal data sources : – National bank of Cambodia (NBC) and Commercial & – World development indicator (WDI), the World Specialized Bank banks – International Telecommunication Union (ITU) – And other reliable sources 9
Recommend
More recommend
