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Technical and Cost Impacts of Technical and Cost Impacts of Integrating Renewables: Integrating Renewables: A Case Study for California A Case Study for California Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered Energy Lori Smith Schell, Ph.D., Empowered Energy Joshua D. Eichman, UC- -Irvine Irvine Joshua D. Eichman, UC Fabian Mueller, Ph.D., UC- -Irvine Irvine Fabian Mueller, Ph.D., UC th Annual USAEE/IAEE North American Conference 30 th Annual USAEE/IAEE North American Conference 30 Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. October 2011 October 2011 TM Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 1

Motivation Motivation • California has the most aggressive Renewable • California has the most aggressive Renewable Portfolio Standard (“ “RPS RPS” ”) in the United States ) in the United States Portfolio Standard ( • Legislative mandate for 20% retail sales by 2010 • Legislative mandate for 20% retail sales by 2010 • California Senate Bill 107, 9/26/2006 • Actually achieved 15-16% by 2010 • Targeted 33% by 2020 • Targeted 33% by 2020 • Executive Order S-14-08, 11/17/2008 • Legislative mandate for 33% retail sales by 2020 • Legislative mandate for 33% retail sales by 2020 • California Senate Bill X1 2, 4/12/2011 “With the amount of renewable resources coming on-line, and prices dropping, I think 40 percent, at reasonable cost, is well within our grasp in the near future.” California Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr. Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 2

Operational Reality Operational Reality • Electrical grid must continually be balanced • Electrical grid must continually be balanced • A variety of generating resources are required • Each generating resource has a preferred duty cycle – Baseload – Load-following – Peaking – Intermittent Peaking Natural Gas Combustion Turbine Fuel Oil Combustion Turbine Hydroelectric Pumped Storage Natural Gas Combined Cycle Load-following Hydroelectric Natural Gas Steam Turbines Thermal Other Generation Geothermal Coal Fueled Steam Turbine Baseload Nuclear Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 3

New Challenges to Balancing the Grid New Challenges to Balancing the Grid • Intermittent renewable resources present new • Intermittent renewable resources present new challenges to maintaining a balanced grid. challenges to maintaining a balanced grid. Low Load Low Load High Load Dec. Load Dec. Load Low Wind Low Wind High Wind Dec. Wind Inc. Wind Low Solar Low Solar Low Solar Dec. Solar Dec. Solar • As renewables penetration levels increase • As renewables penetration levels increase what is the best way to balance the grid? what is the best way to balance the grid? Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 4

More Renewables, More Challenges More Renewables, More Challenges Increasing Renewable Penetration Level 0% 20% 33% 50% 100% Generation Portfolio Portfolio, Management, Minimal Effects and Management Operation and Integration Cost and Cost and Performance, Cost, Economic Life, Performance Performance Role of Complementary Technologies Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 5

STREAM: Integrated Model Flowchart STREAM: Integrated Model Flowchart Renewable Generation Electric Load Profile Dispatchable Renewable Profile Load Generation Module Module Levelized Dispatched Cost Of Energy Power & Energy Load Transmitted or of Renewables Electricity Profile Curtailed (“LCOE”) Balance Cost of Generation Generation Module Module Fuel Use Number of Generators Energy Generated Gen Size Efficiency Operation Parameters Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 6

STREAM Model: Cost Module STREAM Model: Cost Module Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 7

STREAM Model: Preliminary Results STREAM Model: Preliminary Results Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 8

Higher Capacity, Lower Capacity Factors Higher Capacity, Lower Capacity Factors Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 9

Lower Capacity Factors, Higher LCOE Lower Capacity Factors, Higher LCOE Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 10

Preliminary Generation Portfolio LCOE Preliminary Generation Portfolio LCOE Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 11

More Renewables, More Challenges More Renewables, More Challenges Increasing Renewable Penetration Level 0% 20% 33% 50% 100% Generation Portfolio Portfolio, Management, Minimal Effects and Management Operation and Integration Cost and Cost and Performance, Cost, Economic Life, Performance Performance Role of Complementary Technologies Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 12

Need for Complementary Technologies Need for Complementary Technologies • Preliminary findings demonstrate increased role of • Preliminary findings demonstrate increased role of complementary technologies as renewable complementary technologies as renewable penetration levels increase penetration levels increase • Complementary Technologies initially considered • Complementary Technologies initially considered in STREAM model will include: in STREAM model will include: • Demand Response (“DR”) Measures – Peak Shaving – Load Shifting • Energy Storage – Pumped Hydro – Compressed Air Energy Storage – Flow Batteries Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 13

Demand Response Services Demand Response Services • What grid-related services can DR provide? Energy shift Energy shifting ng Peak Peak shaving shaving Reserve margin Reserve margin Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 14

DR Evaluation Metrics DR Evaluation Metrics Reduction • Response magnitude • Response magnitude Response magnitude • Sustained response period • Sustained response period period • Reserve margin: ~ 15-30 min • Peak shaving: up to 6 hrs • Energy shifting: hrs to days Ramp • Ramp period • Recovery Ramp period time behavior • Recovery behavior • Recovery behavior • Recovery period Occupant impact Occupant impact • Occupant impact • Occupant impact Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 15

Energy Storage Services Energy Storage Services • Benefit: Shifts energy from high • Benefit: Shifts energy from high- -demand to low demand to low- - demand periods demand periods • Cost: Round • Cost: Round- -trip efficiency penalty may be high trip efficiency penalty may be high Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 16

STREAM Model: Energy Storage Module STREAM Model: Energy Storage Module • Energy Storage • Energy Storage • Operational parameter inputs: – Efficiency – Ramp Rate – Power Capacity – Energy Capacity • Must calculate cost uniquely for input parameters Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 17

Conclusions Conclusions • A model to explore various renewable penetrations • A model to explore various renewable penetrations for California has been developed and verified for California has been developed and verified • Importance of renewables integration and • Importance of renewables integration and management increases with renewables management increases with renewables penetration level penetration level • Complementary technologies are required for high • Complementary technologies are required for high renewable penetration levels renewable penetration levels • Continued research needed • Continued research needed • Running various renewable penetration scenarios • Enabling renewable cost minimization • Exploring the resulting portfolio generation and cost vectors Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 18

Future Plans Future Plans • Impose an explicit renewable curtailment penalty • Impose an explicit renewable curtailment penalty • Capacity factor penalty implicit in current model • Include electric vehicles for energy storage • Include electric vehicles for energy storage • Value ability to control timing of charging • Include hydrogen production for energy storage • Include hydrogen production for energy storage • Grid-driven – Produce as much hydrogen as warranted by grid benefits – Possible driver for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles • Demand-driven – As hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet size increases Advanced Power and Energy Program, 2011 www.EmpoweredEnergy.com 19