Taking a Second Look at Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) FORREX webinar Tuesday, Dec. 7, 2010 10:30 am Presenter: Sybille Haeussler, UNBC haeussl@unbc.ca Moderator: Don Gayton, FORREX Phone: 1-866-596-5278 ID: 3120346# Facebook: “BEC forum” 1
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Karel Klinka 3 Photo: Bob Green
Why BEC matters in today’s world • An integrated, holistic, multi-scaled view of ecosystems that is concrete rather than fuzzy • A framework for understanding and tackling complex ecosystem responses to accelerating change • Fundamentally compatible with evolving notions of complex adaptive systems • Proven adaptable to changing expectations for BC’s public land base 4
Challenges faced by BEC 1) Loss of critical mass and institutional support 2) Outdated equilibrium concepts 3) Intellectual richness & contemporary relevance underappreciated 5
Outline of Webinar 1. Introduction (done) 2. Brief History of BEC loss of critical mass 3. Addressing Outdated Equilibrium Concepts (with one example) Short question period 4. A plan to revitalize BEC Discussion session 5. Post- webinar chat: Facebook “BEC forum” 6
2. A Brief History of BEC Developed in 1949-70 by Vladimir Krajina & students in Botany Department at UBC www.onf-nfb.gc.ca www.csns.cz Vladimir J. Krajina 1905 - 1993 www.alumni.ubc.ca 7
Adopted by BC Government mid-1970s Ecological Reserves program (Krajina, Foster, Pojar, Roemer) Raincoast Conservation Foundation Friends of Ecological Reserves Friends of Ecological Reserves Bristol Foster Vladimir Krajina touring Eco Reserve Jim Pojar in Spatsizi BC Forest Service (Annas, Pojar, Klinka, Meidinger, etc) BC Forest Service BECweb BC Forest Service BECweb 1978 Ecologists & Pedologists 2008 BEC program staff 8
BEC has served BC well in changing times DATE ERA/ISSUE REFERENCES Early 70’s IBP and Ecological Reserves program Krajina (1973, 1974) Late 70’s Golden Age of Silviculture (FRDA) • tree species selection thru 1980s Klinka et al. (1984) • site preparation & backlog rehabilitation Coates et al. (1987) Early War in the Woods • Old Growth Strategy 1990s OGSP (1992) • Protected Areas Strategy Province of BC (1993) • Land and Resource plans CCLUP (1994) • Forest Practices Code guidebooks Parminter (1995) • Biodiversity conservation (red/blue lists) Late 1990s CDC website (2010) • rangeland ecosystem restoration Gayton (2001) • site index & productivity (SIBEC) Mah and Nigh (2003) 2000s Results-Based & Ecosystem-Based Mgmt FSC Canada (2005) • c ertification & SFM monitoring FREP (2008) First Nations TEK and Non-Timber Resources Keefer et al. (2008) Climate Change Hamann & Wang (2006) • Future Forests strategies (FFEI, FFESC) Symmetree 2009 9
Loss of critical mass & support Modified from BC Forest Service BECweb ? ? ? BC govt BEC group since 2008 (apologies for any errors) • BEC still taught to (forestry) undergraduates - a useful framework for management • Not a serious topic for academic research - descriptive; quaint? 10
3. Using Complex Systems Science to Address Equilibrium Concepts 11
Paradigm Shift http://consciousevolution.com Effect topography ecosystem Cause stand-scale climate natural disturbance site microclimate (temp, moisture) legacy patches Dave Daust 2010 seed bank seed interspecific competition extirpation long-distance dispersal plant community Linear Thinking short-distance dispersal inverts vertebrates fungi virus/bact. (reductionist) Systems Thinking (holistic) 12
Dialectic (Hegel) • A dialogue between two (groups of) people holding opposite views who want to pursue truth by seeking agreement with one another • Simultaneously considering two diametrically opposed ideas (embracing the paradox)allows the imagination to leap to a higher level • The“reconciling third” (Carl Jung) • “The Third Way” (Tony Blair and others) 13
Applying a dialectic to Ecosystems Individualistic Holistic “ Gleasonian ” “ Clementsian ” paradigm paradigm Quantitative Descriptive Hard Science Soft Science Theory Building Classification Complex Systems Theory allows these two views to be reconciled 14
An Ecosystem as a “Dissipative, Non - Equilibrium System” (Prigogine 1977) Keep this image in your “an open, dynamical mind system operating far from thermodynamic equilibrium in an NASA Hurricane Dean environment with which it exchanges energy and matter” Complex Systems Science provides a framework for describing such systems mathematically and tools for modeling their dynamics 15
“Attractor” Term from Non-linear Dynamics (math & physics) Definition: A set of states of a dynamic physical system toward which the system tends to evolve, regardless of the starting conditions of the system. Different kinds of attractors: • Point attractor (eye of hurricane) • Periodic attractor = limit cycle (system oscillates) • Strange attractor = chaos (trajectory appears random) 16
Attractors in Ecosystems The set of states toward which a dynamic ecosystem tends to evolve, regardless of the starting conditions of the ecosystem. Fast-changing Variables (100s of yrs): Vegetation Succession Point attractor : monoclimax (ESSFmc) Periodic attractor: alternative “stable” states CH vs HA states in very wet CWH subzone Black spruce vs mixedwood in BWBS zone Chaotic attractor: urban ecosystems? Slower-changing Variables (1000s of yrs): Soil Profile Development I propose that the BEC system formally recognize the existence of multiple attractors (alternative states) and the potential for chaos. 17
Attractors in BEC • Attractor = climax (monoclimax, polyclimax) • Attractors operating at multiple scales Climate level: zonal ecosystem, zonal soil Site level: climatic climax (/01) edaphic climax (/02 , etc) But the system doesn’t formally allow for: 1) More than one attractor (“ seral ”) 2) Shifting attractors (complex adaptive system) 18
Tools and Techniques of Complex Systems Science Technique References Agent-based models Gilbert and Terno 2000 Cellular automata Wolfram 2002 Data mining Kantardzic 2003 Fitness/Adaptive landscape models Gavrilets 2004 Fuzzy logic and uncertainty theory Liu 2010 Game theory Shoham and Leyton-Brown 2009 Information theory Cover and Thomas 2006 Machine learning Alpaydin 2004 Network analysis Barabasi 2002 Non-linear equations Khalil 2001 Statistical mechanics Evans and Morriss 2008 Symbolic dynamics William 2004 adapted from Haeussler & Thorpe (2010) 19
Linear, equilibrium thinking in BEC: Example 1 current 2025 2055 2085 Hamann & Wang 2006 Great science (null/neutral hypothesis) – but what will really happen? S. Curtis-McLane S. Curtis-McLane Hudson Bay Mountain, Smithers Perkins Peak near Tatla Lake Jan 2009 inversion-induced dieback 20
Linear, equilibrium thinking in BEC: Example 2 “The relative relationship between sites at a local scale will remain stable into the future. E.g. drier, mesic, and wetter sites will retain their relative position and designation in the landscape.” BECweb climate change page Another great Neutral Hypothesis, but what’s the alternative? 21
Reimaging the Edatopic Grid as an Adaptive Landscape Soil nutrient regime Soil moisture regime ESSFl ESSFmk The Messy Ovals The Modernist Box Yole et al. 1989 Banner et al. 1993 22
Fitness (Adaptive) Landscape Modeling widely used in genetics (Wright 1932; Kauffman ) Point Periodic Attractor Attractor Fitness A (smooth landscape) Multiple Strange Attractors Attractor (rugged ( chaotic landscape) landscape ) 23
The Edatopic Grid as a Dynamic Fitness Landscape What does the vertical axis represent? • Ecosystem complexity • The degree of internal Complexity organization (negentropy) • Degree of succession and soil development • Ascendancy (Ulanowicz 2009) How can we measure it? • Time since major disturbance • Carbon storage • Retention rate (inverse of erosion & leaching) ???? 24
The Edatopic Grid as an Adaptive Landscape 6 ecosystem attractors (site series) 4 ecosystem attractors (site series) xeric xeric mesic mesic hygric hygric E D C E B A D C B A Landscape Homogenization 25
Questions? Contact haeussl@unbc.ca to obtain review copy of manuscript: Haeussler, S . 2010. Rethinking biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) for a changing world. (Not for open distribution). 26
4. A Plan to Revitalize BEC Summary of key points: • BEC must adapt from static descriptions & maps of climax ecosystems to dynamic non-equilibrium models of shifting ecosystem attractors • A revitalized BEC will help practitioners better understand complex ecosystem behaviour in changing times • To retain critical mass, BEC must excite and enlighten a new generation of ecologists, earth systems scientists and resource practitioners in academia, the private sector (& govt). 27
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