From Turing to deep learning: explaining AI through neurons and symbols Título do capítulo Luis Lamb – 8 May 2017 Dagstuhl, DE
Summary Dies ist im Wesentlichen die gleiche Vorlesung, die ich auf der City University in London im vergangenen Jahr vorgestellt habe. Allerdings war der Anteil der deutschen Redner in London höher als hier. Also werde ich auf Englisch sprechen.
Summary This is essenEally the same lecture I lectured at City last year, however...
Summary ... the percentage of German speakers in London was larger than here. So, I will speak in English. Mark Rylance: “... does it help?”
Summary This is essenEally the same lecture I presented at City University in London last year; however, the percentage of German speakers in London was higher than here. So, I will speak in English. This is the same lecture I have presented at the University of London last year; However, the percentage of German speakers in London was higher than here. So, I will speak in English. google already knows that City is now part of the University of London! what is “essenEal” there... well, not this word it seems... CogniEve temporal reasoning rules... AI rules...
Summary The cogniEve revoluEon A bit of history CogniEon, AI and Computer Science Learning to Reason Social Problem-Solving ATerword
Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil SP Argen+na Porto Alegre RS Uruguay Capital of the state • 11.2 million people • 1.47 million people • 11th largest city in Brazil Roughly the size of Britain • • Life exp. 76.9 (2010) • High tech industry (3 rd/ 4th in BR) • HDI 0.746 (76 th ) • Three large universiEes • 4 th GDP in Brazil ~100B US$ •
Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
UFRGS – Central Campus 9
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) • Founded in 1934 (first schools from1895: Pharmacy, Eng, Medicine, Law) • 86 undergraduate programs/80 PhD programs • Top five university in Brazil, several rankings • 870+ Research Groups – registered in the Brazilian Research Council CNPq. • Approximately 2,800 faculty members, 2,500 PhDs. • UFRGS Students: ~27 K (undergraduate) and ~9 K (postgraduate) • >663 CNPq Fellowships (Advanced research fellowships) • Ranked best university in Brazil, by the Ministry of Education, 2013-2015. 10
Institute of Informatics (INF-UFRGS) 73 full-Eme faculty/2 part-Eme; 55 supervisors in • graduate program 5 new compeEEve vacancies 2017 • Young faculty: >20 hired in the last decade • Faculty PhD backgrounds : • Brazil(26 - 4 UniversiEes), France(14/5), Germany(8/5), UK(6/4), Scotland*(1), USA(4/3), Canada(2/2), Belgium(2/2), Sweden (1), Switzerland(2), Portugal(2/2) • PostDocs: 15 US, 8 FR, 6 UK, 2 CAN, 3+ DE, IT, ND, BE, DN. Computer Science & CSEng (BSc) • Top rankings, 900+ students (Post)graduate Programme in CS Top 5 program in CS in Brazil Currently: 300 students (MSc and PhD) Graduated over 250 PhDs and 1400 MSc.
Universities: institutions of the (modern) world • First Inca Emperor: Manco Capac, around 1200 . Details of many emperors lost during Spanish occupation. • Manco Capac ( Manku Qhapaq , 1100-?) • ... • Huayna Capac ( Wayna Qhapaq , 1493 – 1527) • Huáscar ( Waskhar , 1527 – 1532) • Atahualpa ( Ataw Wallpa , 1532 – 1533) • Tupac Hualpa ( Topa Huallpa , 1533 – 1535), puppet emperor, Spanish rule. University of Oxford: 1096 ... University of Cambrige: 1209 ... British Empire: ~1497 – 1945 Univ of St Petersburg: 1724... Harvard 1636... 12
Source: ROYAL SOCIETY report: April 2017 “ Machine learning: the power and promise of computers that learn by example” These are all related to NSC
This is directly related to the topics of this seminar Source: ROYAL SOCIETY report: April 2017 “ Machine learning: the power and promise of computers that learn by example”. ISBN : 978 - 1 - 78252 - 259 - 1
The present • ... but it’s been a long journey...
The Cognitive Revolution • Yuval Noah Harari: Sapiens: A Brief History of Human Kind . Vintage , London 2014.
The Cognitive Revolution – a timeline - Harari • 13.5 billion years ago: maper/energy appears; atoms, molecules. • 4.5 billion y.a.: Earth is formed • 3.8 billion: Organisms • 6 million: last common ancestor man/chimpanzee • 2.5 million: genus homo – Africa • 2 million: humans go to Eurasia/evoluEon of different human species • 500k: Neanderthals evolve in Middle East/Europe • 300k: fire • 200k: Homo sapiens evolve in Africa • 70k: CogniMve revoluMon: ficMve language; Homo sapiens spread out of Africa • 45k: Homo sapiens in Australia: exEncEon of local megafauna • 30k: Neanderthals exEnct. • 16k: Homo sapiens in America: exEncEon of local megafauna • 13k: sapiens rule the world • 10k: Agriculture; domesMcaMon ; permanent seplements • 5k: first kingdoms, script, money; polytheism. • 2.5k: coinage (money); Persians; Buddhism. • 2k: ChrisEanity; Roman Empire; Han empire in China. • 500: SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION • 200: Industrial RevoluEon
Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626) “Knowledge is power”, 1597. § Architect of the Scientific Revolution § QC, Elizabeth I; “Lord Chancellor”, James I. § Scientific method; empiricism. § Science as an innovation activity to improve life. § Helped to unveil human ignorance. § Legal system influenced Le Code Napoléon ( C o d e c i v i l d e s f r a n ç a i s ) ; innovations: freedom and merit .
Innovation is Power § "First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.” JFK 25 May 1961. § “That’s one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind” Neil Armstrong, 20 Jul 1969. “Discoveries typically aren’t made by people trying to solve a problem, or invent something. Major discoveries are not made in the lab. They are made in the minds of scienDsts. ScienDfic research is what you do when you don’t know what you are doing.” - Daniel Zajfman – President, Weizmann InsEtute of Science
Cognition is Power § Turing, Simon, Newell: AI, cognition, ambition. § Watson/Deep Blue : gigantic amounts of computing (reasoning on) data; 1997: Gary Kasparov walks away from Deep Blue “I could feel – I could smell – a new kind of intelligence across the table... Although I think I did see some signs of intelligence, it’s a weird kind, an inneficient, inflexible kind that maked me feel I have a few years left.” Gary Kasparov, 1997. § Watson (2011): wins Jeopardy! , beats the best human players. § Question answering (QA) + several AI techniques: NLP, KR, ML, IR and other acronyms. § Computes 500Gb/s: 1 million books/s.
Cognition is Power
Cognition is Power But, is it really true, in the “real world”?
Reality check: The IT Business World Today 2016 Real world trends (according to Gartner, McKinsey, Wired, MIT TR) 1. TransformaMon of health care / internet DNA / rise of cogniEve therapy 2. CompuMng Everywhere / Integrated digital-physical experiences 3. The Internet of Things / the internet of all things 4. 3D PrinMng / 4D prinEng 5. Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible AnalyMcs / big data, advanced analyEcs 6. Context-Rich Systems / ambient intelligence 7. Smart Machines / car-to-car communicaEon 8. Risk-Based Security and Self-ProtecMon / personal darknets in the spot light 9. The next three billion digital ciMzens / mobilizing the next four billion 10. Apple Pay / e-currencies 11. Cloud Client CompuMng / realizing anything as a service
New York Times: Aug 17 th , 2015 “Instead of turning the planet into a “Terminator”-like baElefield, machines may be able to pierce the fog of war beEer than humans can, offering at least the possibility of a more humane and secure world. We deserve a chance to find out.” Quote from Jerry Kaplan , who teaches about the ethics and impact of arEficial intelligence at Stanford, is the author of “Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of ArEficial Intelligence.”
How trends and technologies fare? “Successful organizaDons face considerable difficulty in maintaining their strength and might. Of the 25 largest industrial corporaDons in 1900, only two have remained in that select company. The rest have failed, been merged out of existence, or simply fallen in size. Figures like these help to remind us that corporaDons are expendable and that success – at best – is an impermanent achievement which can always slip out of hand.” Thomas J. Watson , Jr., Chairman, IBM 1963.
Cognitive revolutions?
Cognitive Computation
Enters Turing The whole thinking process is s+ll rather mysterious to us, but I believe that the aEempt to make a thinking machine will help us greatly in finding out how we think ourselves. Alan Turing, 15 May 1951, “Can Digital Machines Think” BBC.
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