Systems mapping for international benchmarking of UK science and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Systems mapping for international benchmarking of UK science and innovation . Ian M Mitchell FORS March 2015

Agenda 2 • Systems thinking in BIS – Catalyst for policy • Science and Innovation Question • Systems approach • What we did • Outputs • Discussion

Outline 3 • O.R. structures problems • Systems Thinking catalyses policy definition • Systems Thinking with Causal Loop Diagrams builds frameworks for complicated areas by creating maps from stakeholder views. • Maps summarise areas in terms acceptable to policy leads and stakeholders. • Success depends on a Socio-technical process rather than an analytical exercise. • Early is better: in the ROAMEF cycle, but also to structure studies

Roundtable of ROAMEF  Rationale Feedback Objectives Z Appraisal Evaluation Monitoring

System Models 5 A regularly interacting or interdependent group of items forming a unified whole Spectrum of rigour and complexity for models of a system, components and interactions Low High Components and Influences Patterns • Flows • Feedback loops Boundaries • Things • Quantity • Reinforcing • Information • Time • Balancing • Groups • Positive • Pinch-points • Negative • Levers <time of day> EFFECT OF HEAT STRESS ON TEMPO <effectiveness of locs> <time in ipe <time in ipe due to total effect on tempo TIME FOR DECON B vs agent> conventional> reduced tempo due to <mean persistent degradation <conflict begins> encounter rate> proportion suffering B C degradation effects reduced combat loss of tempo due to effectiveness OWN COMBAT hazard management D MANOEUVRE rate own capability DEGRADATION INITIAL OWN EFFECTIVENESS <AGENT proportion of <rate of reduces enemy EFFECT CAPABILITY arrival in <own strike + C PERSISTENCE TIME> time in ipe theatre> <Personnel In effects on HEAT STRAIN Theatre> manoeuvre> DECON + INFORMATION CASUALTY <TIME OF <total PROPORTION PROPORTION Enemy NEEDED TABLE Own FREQUENCY DOWNWIND hazards> IN COLPRO WORKING AT Manoeuvre Outcome INITIAL ENEMY DECONTAMINATION HAZARD> MAX RATE Manoeuvre Capability CAPABILITY A casualties caused by Capability protection action in protection <enemy NBC HARDENING surrender> disseminate protection rate enemy A information WARNING capability decay time EFFECTIVENESS ENEMY <time of day> reduces own DEGRADATION hazard management + PROCESS C3IDELAY rate of nbc casualties EFFECT effectiveness of protection ENEMY COMBAT Warning And Total INDIVIDUAL EFFECTIVENESS <information from Reporting INFORMATION COLLECTIVE Manoeuvre NBC RECCE AND PROTECTION effectiveness of hazard recce and survey> PER ENCOUNTER Casualties INFORMATION PER SURVEY PROTECTION PERSONNEL management RECCE AND SURVEY E + SPECIFIC <personnel LOSS RATE COLLECTION multiplier> PERSISTENT ANY IDENTIFICATION EFFECTIVENESS casualties from persistent ENCOUNTER collect DETECTION contamination RATE casualties information from agent identified caused by nbc CASUALTIES PER <rate of nbc recce and survey detection attack potential encounters DOWNWIND use vs strike> D made ENCOUNTER CASUALTIES PER with persistent <rate of nbc <total encounter detection specific therapy given PERSISTENT use vs locs> AREA <detection casualties from ENCOUNTER Persistent Area F E rate> made> downwind hazards Contamination DETECTION <rate of nbc use> NUMBER OF UNITS MEDICAL AGENT encounters with - SURVEILLANCE effectiveness of PERSISTENT WARNING downwind hazards AGENT medical HAZARD CONFIRMATION FACTOR FORWARD countermeasures DOWNWIND attack identified ENCOUNTER HAZARD POINT generic RATE DETECTION therapy given Rate Persistent confirmation direct casualties from direct Downwind Hazards Areas Lost of use In Forward Area contamination attack MONITORING medical <rate forward rate persistent GENERIC <rate forward <detection countermeasures hazards disperse> hazard laid IDENTIFICATION hazards move on> made> <MEDICAL SURVEILLANCE> + WATER TEST CASUALTIES PER AGENT POST NBC ATTACKS <AGENT PERSISTENCE TREATMENTS DIRECT ATTACK AVAILABLE FALLOUT TIME HAZARD> SPECIFIC GENERIC THERAPY rate of nbc use Nbc Attacks Used THERAPY OPPORTUNITIES credibility of DETERRENCE able to detect PRETREATMENT deterrent TO USE NBC <rate of nbc PRETREATMENTS TAKE UP use vs locs> attack type Decision To F PERCEIVED UTILITY Use Nbc OF NBC CAPABILITY USED + TO LAUNCH ATTACK ABILITY TO DETECT <current nbc threat enemy force <Enemy <conflict ratio> Manoeuvre begins> Capability> <proportion vs ENEMY RELEASE ENEMY NBC manoeuvre> OF AGENT CAPABILITY ENEMY STRIKE <Enemy Strike NBC CAPABILITY Capability> Systemigrams Causal Loop Diagramming Informal to formal methods Complex layered views Post it - paper - pencil – pen Lists - Sketches - Mind maps Quantitative models Software: eg Vensim Software: eg Vensim

Workshop Brief Introduction Activity 1 Background and Brief overview of the method Agree broad areas Activity 2 Consider and agree broad areas of influence that should be covered by the map, Generate Variables Activity 3 Generate key variables that reflect the interest of the client Identify Causes, Effects, Feedbacks and Data Map how each variable affects the variable of interest and other variables in the diagram. Activity 4 Identify additional variables and how they impact on the system Consider the data available on these Wash Up Activity 5 Review workshop output

SAI Question • What does international comparative evidence tell us about the priority actions for the UK’s Science and Innovation System and its contribution to the economy, if we are to maintain a global leadership position in this domain?

Components 8

Seed Sequence • From Science and Innovation to a more vibrant economy in 10 years time: – Developing people, firms and ideas from initial discovery or invention to application in commercially merchantable goods and services Ideas Ideas Goods Goods Discoveries Services

Example - Bullpup Ideas Ideas Goods ? Goods Discoveries Services 1864 – Prof Potter 1842 – Brown Bess 1989-SA-80 Ensign

Workshop Approach 11 • The map grew through three workshops with participants from policy areas in Higher Education, Further Education and Research • Large group – small group then individual by phone

Workshop 1

Workshop 2 13 • Research area • Two variables from Workshop 1 as seeds and connectors