SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015 Coordinators: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015

Coordinators: Partners:

Despite some acceleration, Africa still not moving fast enough to end energy poverty by 2030

Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to double again to meet SDG7 40% % 60% 21% 20% % 80% % 0% 100%

Pace of electrification doubled in recent years, but needs to more than double again to meet SDG7 39% 40% % 60% 21% 20% % 80% % 0% 100%

Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past 40% % 60% 20% % 80% 11% % 0% 100%

Minimal progress on access to non-solid fuels, and moving even more slowly than in the past 40% % 60% 20% % 80% 11% 7% % 0% 100%

Africa’s progress on energy efficiency is about SSA Efficiency: 46% half of what the global target envisages 46% 40% % 60% 20% % 80% % 0% 100%

Africa’s progress on energy efficiency is about half of what the global target envisages 46% 51% 40% % 60% 20% % 80% % 0% 100%

Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030 40% 40% % 60% 20% % 80% 0% % 100%

Recent acceleration of modern renewables, consistent with a doubling of the share by 2030 40% 40% % 60% 20% % 80% 100% 0% % 100%

Africa’s overall progress: a mixed report card 51% 39% 40% % 60% 20% % 80% 7% 0% % 100% 100%

Many African countries are gearing-up on electrification, but challenging to stay ahead of population growth

Notable long term acceleration in electrification rates, and stagnation in progress on non-solid fuels 40 40 35.4 35 35 31.8 30 30 26.1 25 25 22.9 Percent Percent 20 20 18.2 18.1 17.0 13.5 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Access to electricity (% of total population) Access to Non-Solid Fuel (% of total population) Access to electricity, 1990-2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 1990-2012 14

Absolute number of people without access constant for electricity (at 590m), growing for non-solid fuels (to 747m) 800 800 747 708 700 700 590 590 600 600 500 500 Million people Million people 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 2010 2012 2010 2012 Electricity access deficit Non-solid fuel access deficit (millions of people) (millions of people) 15

For the first time, African pace of electrification just kept up with population growth; not so for non-solid fuels 24 million 5 million 24 million Average annual increase in Average annual Average annual increase electrified population population increase in population with access 2010-2012 2010-2012 to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

In South Asia, pace of electrification already almost four times faster than population expansion 38 million 11 million 11 million Average annual increase in Average annual Average annual increase electrified population population increase in population with access 2010-2012 2010-2012 to non-solid fuels 2010-2012

To stay ahead of population and meet SDG7 target 60- 70 million Africans will need to gain access each year 24 million 5 million 24 million Average annual increase in Average annual Average annual increase electrified population population increase in population with access 2010-2012 2010-2012 to non-solid fuels 2010-2012 62 million 71 million 29 million

Four times as many people gained energy access in urban than rural areas over 2010-2012 Share of energy access in rural areas Share of energy access in urban areas

Most African countries making steady progress on electrification Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Most African countries making steady progress on electrification Electrification Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Electrification Most African countries making steady progress on electrification Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Progress on access to non-solid fuels lackluster across the board Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012

Despite strong efforts only a handful of countries are accelerating energy access faster than population Mali 5.9% Mali 1.7% Nigeria Congo, DR 2.2% 0.3% Ghana Burkina Faso 1.0% 0.1% Congo, DR 0.8% Cote d'Ivoire -0.2% Rwanda 0.4% Angola -0.6% Burkina Faso 0.0% Ghana -1.0% Cameroon -0.1% Nigeria -2.5% Mozambique -0.5% Zambia -2.6% Zambia -1.1% Kenya -2.9% Angola -1.5% Malawi -3.0% Uganda -1.7% Tanzania -3.0% Niger -1.8% Mozambique -3.4% Ethiopia Madagascar -1.9% -3.5% South Sudan Rwanda -2.3% -3.6% Malawi -2.3% Cameroon -3.7% Tanzania -2.4% Uganda -4.0% Kenya -2.4% Niger -4.6% Madagascar -2.5% Chad -4.7% Chad -3.3% Ethiopia -4.9% Burundi -6.5% Guinea -6.3% Access to electricity net growth rate, 2010-2012 Access to non-solid fuels net growth rate, 2010-2012 26

Among top 20 electricity access deficit countries, show slow expansion in countries with lowest electrification 64 56 54 Access rate 2012 (percent) 37 33 27 26 23 22 20 18 18 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 6 9.0 7.6 Access rate change 2010- 2012 (percentage points) 7.2 5.2 5.1 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 Electricity access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom) 27

Among top 20 non-solid fuel access deficit countries, fastest expansion among those with highest access 44 Access rate in 2012 28 (percent) 25 22 19 17 17 16 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 Access rate percentage point 3.8 3.3 change, 2010-2012 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Non-solid fuel access rate in 2012 (top) and access rate percentage point change, 2010-2012 (bottom) 28

Kinshasa pilot shows multi-tier framework gives a much more nuanced picture of energy access 30

Conventional measures of energy access fail to capture many important dimensions of service quality Electricity Source Capacity Duration Duration Source Source 24 Hours (hours) Evening (hours) 16h- <1h >22h SHS SHS 22h NO NO 9% 2% 2% 6% 9% <4h ACCESS ACCESS 23% >4h 10% OTHER 10% OTHER 41% 1% 1h-2h 1% 18% 8h-16h 23% 2h-4h 4h-8h GRID GRID 32% 39% 87% 87% Reliability Quality Affordability Legality Duration of interruptions (mins) Low Voltage problems Index: Index: Not Not Afforda Legal Good ble 2% voltage 2% >30 None 15% mins 38% 46% Low <10 Voltage Legal 10-30 Afforda mins 85% 98% mins ble 5% 98% 11% Less than 8 hours per day for 62% of the household Unscheduled interruptions are longer than 30 minutes for more than 57% of the household 31 Almost 85% of the household experienced low voltage

African economies are surprisingly energy intensive, some progress driven mainly by transport and by South Africa

Africa shows high levels of energy intensity, compared to most other regions 12 10.8 10 8.5 7.9 8 7.3 MJ/USD 2011 PPP 5.8 5.6 6 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4 2 0 EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA Energy intensity by region, 2012 33

Africa most energy intensive continent after Eastern Europe and CIS, but making meaningful improvements Primary Energy intensity reduction Energy savings 2010-2012 2010-2012 8.1 MJ/$ 7.9 MJ/$ 34

Africa’s energy intensity is decreasing at -1.4% per year, driven entirely by improvements in transport and industry 25 80 Agricultural Residential Transport Industrial Services Primary 70 20 60 8.3 MJ/2011 USD PPP 50 15 GJ/household 40 10 30 2.7 20 0.3 5 10 -1.3 -1.4 0 0 1 6 11 16 21 Transport Industrial Agricultural -4.1 Services Residential Primary Energy intensity, 1990-2012 CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012 35