Sustainable Development of U Production: Time Challenge Alexander V. Boytsov Deputy Director General, ARMZ Uranium Holding Moscow, 2010 1
World atomic energy development NPP’s construction , pcs. Today 436 operating Nuclear Power Reactors with a installed capacity of 372 GWe. Most of operating NPPs are located in the USA (104), France (59), Japan (53) and Russia (31). 49 new reactors with a combined installed capacity of 44.35 GWe are under construction in 13 countries. NPP’s installed capacity, GWe In a 20 years: 88 % growth of operating NPPs worldwide. 119% growth of total installed nuclear capacity. Most active nuclear industry development - in China and India. 2,5-fold grow of installed NPP’s capacity in Russia. Source: WNA
Uranium demand and atomic energy growth Uranium mining Secondary sources Reactor related Additional demand uranium demand SUPPLY DEMAND The main factors of demand/supply relationship • Favorable uranium • HEU-LEU Program • Countries’ policy in atomic • Uranium as a trading prices • US policy in the energy commodity (stocks • Sufficient and uranium inventory trading) • Trends in new NPPs qualitative uranium reduction and stock construction • Energy companies resources balance selling stockpiles • NPP’s operation time • Sufficient uranium • Policy in spent fuel and extension production capacities HEU recycling • NPPs decommissioning • Staffing Key issue of the atomic energy development – sustainable and long-term uranium supply
Projected U requirements to 2030 tU 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Добыча урана Вторичные источники WNA 2009, reference scenario WNA,2009 , средний сценарий U production Secondary sources Additional demand (inventories, investors, hedge funds) – 5% of plant requirements Дополнительный спрос (складские запасы АЭС, закупки инвестиционных и хеджевых фондов)—порядка 5% от реакторных потребностей Общие потребности Total U requirements WNA 2009 Nuclear Fuel Market Report: Reactors requirements growth from 68,000 to 104,000 tU to 2030 (53%) Uranium production needs to increase from 50,000 to 99,000 tU Is it possible for U industry to double uranium production within 20 years?
Historical uranium production vs NPPs demand 68 ths tU 80000 Since 1945 Ths. tU 70000 Produced 2 468 60000 Uranium production Consumed 1 919 Consumption 50000 of inventories U, t ons Stockpiled 549 40000 30000 Accumulation 50 ths tU USD per pound of U3O8 of U 120 20000 цена спот inventories spot price NPPs U requirements 100 10000 80 цена по долгосрочным long-term price контрактам 60 0 40 20 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The last 20 years – uranium production covered about 40% of uranium demand. The difference was covered by inventories and secondary sources. Low uranium prices din not stimulate uranium production production
World uranium production at a glance World’s largest U mines in 2009 World uranium production in 2004-2009, tU 60000 Facility Main owner U % of the Почие production, t world total 50305 50000 43648 США McArthur River Cameco 7340 15 39357 41102 40000 Узбекистан Ranger Rio Tinto 4423 9 Нигер Rossing Rio Tinto 3574 7 30000 KATCO AREVA 3250 6 Россия 20000 Priargunsky ARMZ 3003 6 Намибия Olympic Dam BHP Billiton 2981 6 Казахстан 10000 Arlit AREVA 1808 4 Австралия Rabbit-Lake Cameco 1447 3 0 Канада McClean Lake AREVA 1388 3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Akouta AREVA 1435 3 Countries – leaders of U production in 2009, tU Companies – leaders of U production in 2009, tU 14000 13900 10000 9135 9000 12000 8001 10175 8000 10000 6427 7000 7962 5477 6000 8000 4624 5000 6000 4000 4681 2980 2340 3000 3564 3243 4000 3000 1346 2000 1210 2338 1140 1442 1000 2000 0 0 Uranium prices increased in 2007 led to a growth of uranium production. Russia/ARMZ - world’s 5 th by country/company in uranium production
Factors affected on U production plans Main risks hampered development of Resources biggest U mining projects Political social and Deposit Financial risks Technical risks environmental risks Olympic Dam V V (expansion), V Dominion Financial V V С igar Lake risks Technical risks V Imouraren V Midwest V Jabiluka Political, U production ecological V Geological and Elkon and social risks mining risks Uranium production is behind the declared plans. Reasons: o Speculative announcements of some companies, especially juniors o Financial crisis o Price volatility o Technical limitations o Political, social and environmental factors
Uranium production capabilities to 2030 tU Uncovered demand - « window of opportunities » production Stages of the uranium industry development 2010- 2020 - reactor demand covered by uranium production after 2020 - uranium production shortage after 2025 – decrease of uranium production and production capacity shortage (decommissioning of some mines due to U resources depletion) WNA,2009, 8 reference
Uranium production forecast for leading companies (ARMZ evaluation) Cameco ths. tU Rio-Tinto Kintyre ths. tU 16,0 8,0 US ISL Exp. 14,0 7,0 Resources Smith Ranch - 12,0 6,0 398 ths.t Highland Resources Crow Butte 10,0 5,0 455 ths.t Inkai Exp. 8,0 4,0 Resources Resources- Inkai 6,0 3,0 178 ths.t 270 ths.t Millennium 2,0 4,0 1,0 Rabbit Lake 2,0 - Cigar Lake - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 MacArthur River Ranger Rossing Rossing-Expansion After 2024 – sharp drop in uranium production due to the 2027 - production shut down, residual U resources - in Jabiluka depletion of U resource base at McArthur River and Cigar Lake. deposit (non-developed due to social and political limitations) Possible deficit of uranium resources. Residual U resources - 39% of initial. ths. tU AREVA Christensen Ranch 20,0 Imouraren 18,0 Arlit Akouta 16,0 Tortkuduk Resources 14,0 Muyunkum Exp. 209 ths.t Even subject to realization of all plans for 12,0 Muyunkum Resources 10,0 Ryst Kuil development of new mines and expanding 543 ths.t Trekkopje 8,0 existing facilities, after 2025 uranium Bakouma 6,0 Kiggavik/Sisson production will decrease and will cause 4,0 Millennium Midwest 2,0 the overall decline of uranium production. McClean Lake - Cigar Lake 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Mc Arthur River Production decrease since 2023 (abandoned McArthur, Sigar Lake , 9 Akouta, Trekkoppje). Residual U resources – 38% of initial.
U resources is a key factor for sustainable development of uranium production Uranium resources by leading companies, th.tU Uranium resources by countries, th.tU 2500 1800 1679 2260 World recoverable U 1600 Total U resources – resources - 6463 th.t 2000 1400 4925 th.t (in-situ) (IAEA/OECD-2009) 1200 1500 950 1000 689 800 1000 566 545 615 481 600 543 435 430 367 398 392 500 279 400 276 147 140 196 200 0 0 Exhausting of U resources base by leading companies leading companies will produce about 1.8 million as a result of its production, th.tU 5000 tons of uranium in 2009-2030 (U resource 4500 consumption - 37%) Paladin Energy 4000 Uranium One 3500 62% of the total companies’ U resources will be Cameco 3000 concentrated in the Olympic Dam deposit by 2030 2500 Rio Tinto (copper-main commodity) 2000 Казатомпром Kazatomprom 1500 Areva U resources of primary uranium mines will be 1000 АРМЗ ARMZ reduced by 2030 more than twofold 500 BHP Billiton 0 2009 2030
The cost categories of U resources, involved in production ths. tU Variation of uranium resources structure on cost categories in 2008-2030 90,0 80,0 > 130 $/kg 70,0 80 – 130 $/kg 60,0 12% 50,0 40,0 48% 49% 30,0 < 80 $ / kg 20,0 10,0 52% 39% - 2008 2030 Significant reduction of large mines with the cost categories of resources <USD 80/kg U By 2030 large deposits (McArthur River, Cigar Lake, Rossing, Ranger, Akouta, Akdala, Inkai, Millenium, Karamurun, etc.) will be depleted Deposits with the resources cost >USD130$/kg U will come into production 11
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