Suncor Energy Investor Information Published October 25, 2017 Fort Hills haul trucks
2 Canada’s leading integrated energy company $86B 35+ years Enterprise value 1 2P Reserve life index 2 September 30, 2017 as at Dec. 31, 2016 668 mboepd 99% Oil production 462 mbpd Refining capacity YTD 2017 >1530 >530 mbpd Product sales Retail sites In North America YTD 2017 Oda 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
3 Investment proposition – growing shareholder returns Growth Cash generation Strong production 1 increase from projects in flight Significant upside FFO 3 sensitivity to WTI, based on TTM 4 actuals US$49 WTI, 0.76 C$/US$, US$16.39 NYH crack spread (mbpd) (C$ billion) 800 $14 10% $12 Planned CAGR 2 700 $10 per share (2016-19) $8 6% 600 $6 CAGR 2 per share $4 500 (2012-16) $2 400 $0 2012 2016 2019 $49 $55 $60 $65 $70 Planned TTM Return of cash Resilience Commitment to dividends with >156% five year growth (2012-2017) Managing the balance sheet as a strategic asset Dividend per share 5 Liquidity $ 8 . 3 B Buyback per share 5,6,7 $2.8B cash and $5.5B in available lines of credit As at September 30, 2017 1.28 1.14 — 1.16 1.14 1.12 A 1.02 Credit rating low 0.94 Investment grade B aa1 0.73 DBRS (A Low) Stable, S&P(A-) stable outlook , Moody’s (Baa1 ) Stable 0.50 2017 WTI FFO Break-Even ~$ 40 0.60 Sustaining capital + dividend 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
4 The foundation of our strategy Operational excellence Suncor’s upgrader reliability journey Optimizing the base business Multi year journey to reach >90% reliability • Safety as a core value 91% 90% 90% Excluding • Disciplined cost management Alberta 83% forest fire 81% impact 1 79% • Leader in sustainability 74% • Industry leading reliability 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 Capital discipline Rigorous capital allocation process Firebag 23 mbpd plant capacity expansion for < $5k/bpd • Vast portfolio of high quality organic growth opportunities Additional 41.74% Syncrude WI for ~ $55k/bpd • Strategic, counter-cyclical acquisitions & divestments Divestiture of Petro-Canada Lubricants Inc. for $1.125B • Competitive, sustainable and growing dividends Annual dividend increases for 15 consecutive years Launched $2B share buyback in May 2017 • Opportunistic share buybacks 1 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
5 Growing production Suncor’s production growth forecast 1,2 (mbpd) ~10% Hebron 2016-2019 planned CAGR 3 per share 800 E&P 700 Fort Hills 600 Syncrude 500 400 Base Mine 300 U1 U2 200 Base In situ 100 FB 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Guidance midpoint Planned Planned Planned major maintenance 4 1, 2, 3,4 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
6 Cost reductions across the corporation Consistent reductions in operating costs Company OS&G below 2014 levels while production increases ~30% C$/bbl Pol Oil Sands 2 Oi 40% Pol E&P 3 E $37.05 $37.00 R&M 4 Pol R 30% $33.80 Production 1 $27.85 Q3 2017 20% $26.50 $23.65 $21.60 10% 535 mbpd 0% $9.92 $10.03 $9.67 $8.59 $8.32 $7.30 $8.57 $9.75B OS&G 1 -10% $6.00 $5.20 $5.30 $5.10 $5.10 $5.00 $4.50 -20% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017E >65% of savings attributed to controllable cost Operational Productivity Business process Supply chain Improved reliability, increased Workforce reduction, Elimination of low-value added work, Sole sourcing, vendor scale, maintenance planning, technology application streamlined processes, lower fly in fly out contract concessions energy inputs 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
7 Generating discretionary free cash flow 1 FFO 2 consistently exceeds sustaining capital, associated 2017 sustaining capital and dividend break-even 8 capitalized interest and dividends (C$ billions) $8 ~US$ 40.00 WTI $6.8 Break-even $6 $6.0 $4 $1.6 $1.9 $2 $2.7 $2.3 $0 2015 2016 2017 E WTI US$ 3 2017 Estimated dividends $2.1B 6 $48.75 $43.35 $50.00 NYH 3-2-1 US$ 4 $19.70 $14.05 $17.50 2017 Estimated sustaining capital $2.7B 5 FFO 2 Illustrative 2017 FFO 2,7 Sustaining capital 5 Dividend 2017 Estimated sustaining capital 5 + dividends 6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
8 Near-term flexible capital allocation plan 1 Production Production growth Balance sheet Dividend 3 Capital 1 growth Buybacks 3 post 2019 leverage metrics to 2019 2 Defer $40 WTI debottlenecking and $4.0B Upper range None pre-engineering on USD replication Invest in 10% $50-$55 Grow with $1-$2B debottlenecking and $5.0B CAGR Mid range WTI production Annually pre-engineering on per share USD replication Advance Extend $65 WTI debottlenecking and $5.5B Low range buyback development on USD program replication Focused on near-term production and dividend, while discretionary capital investments and share buybacks are tailored to the business environment 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
9 Returning cash to shareholders 15 consecutive years of dividend increases plus opportunistic share buybacks $120 $2.50 Buyback per share 1,2,3,5 Dividend per share 1 WTI US$ $100 $2.00 $80 (C$/share) $1.50 (US$/bbl) Actual buybacks/share as at September 30, 2017 5 $60 $1.00 Dividends expected to $40 grow in line with production 4 $0.50 $20 $0 $0.00 Forward 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018 Reinvestment into base business Petro-Canada transaction Invest in Hebron & Fort Hills Inflight growth and Focus on shareholder returns Grew production >70% and a focus on reducing debt and building cash reserve opportunistic acquisitions consolidate/integrate growth 4 Increasing dividend Increasing dividend Increasing dividend & buying Increasing dividend Opportunity to increase back shares dividends & buy back shares 4 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
10 Meaningful, growing and sustainable dividend Dividend growth leader Sustainable dividend growth Five year dividend growth relative to global peers 1 (Q3 2012 – Q3 2017) Dividend growth since 2010 200% 200% 120 100 $97.95 $94.90 $94.20 80 Suncor 100% $93.00 $79.50 100% 60 $48.75 40 $43.35 0% 20 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Canadian Peers 3 Large Integrateds 4 Suncor -100% E&Ps 5 WTI US$ Dividend increase YTD 2017 Dividend CAGR 6 10% 25% Q3 2012 – Q3 2017 Compared to YTD 2016 Dividend per share Dividend yield 7 32₵ 2.9% Q3 2017 As at September 30, 2017 Consecutive annual dividend 5-year total shareholder return 70% 15 Including reinvested dividends 2012-2016 increases 2 years 2003 to 2017 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
11 Strong balance sheet Conservative debt targets Debt metrics - as at September 30, 2017 1.6x Net debt to FFO 1 <3x Net debt to FFO 1 20-30% Total debt to capitalization 26% Total debt to capitalization Investment grade credit rating $8.3B Liquidity A — Cash & cash equivalents ($2.8B) plus available credit DBRS Rating Limited (A Low) Stable low facilities ($5.5B) 2 Standard and Poor’s Rating Services (A -) Stable Outlook Baa1 Moody’s Corp (Baa1) Stable Manageable debt maturity profile 2 (C$ billion) 2018-2020 $1.7 2021-2024 $2.6 2025-2028 $1.4 2029-2034 $1.6 2035-2039 $4.8 2040-2046 $0.5 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
12 Suncor offers growth comparable to tight oil Sustainable production growth through the downturn Year-over-year change, oil sands only for Suncor 60% Capital discipline allowed Suncor to consistently grow production through the 40% 14% crude price cycle 9% 10% 20% 6% 9% 7% Weak oil prices limit the ability for 0% tight oil production to grow -20% 2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 1 Cimarex, Concho, Continental, Pioneer, EOG Suncor 30% 14% 20% Suncor’s production growth exceeded the 9% 9% 10% 7% supermajors in 4 of the 5 recent years 6% 10% 0% Supermajors’ growth limited by their -10% scale and natural production declines -20% 2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Shell, Total Suncor 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
13 Returning cash in line with supermajors Total cash (dividends + buybacks) returned to shareholders US$/bbl $20 Continued focus on capital discipline $15 $16 $13 allows sustainable cash returns for $11 shareholders through the crude price cycle $12 $6 $6 $8 Scarce cash returns to shareholders $4 amongst tight oil leaders $- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 Cimarex, Concho, Continental, Pioneer, EOG Suncor $25 Balance sheet strength allows for $20 sustainable dividend, while buyback $15 $13 $11 $15 programs offer flexibility $10 $6 $6 Cash returns to shareholders in line $5 with the supermajors $- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Shell, Total Suncor 1 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
14 Typical attributes 1 of North American oil plays Initial Decline Sustaining Operating Reservoir Recovery Illustrative annual cash flow profiles 2 capital rate costs cost risk factor Mining High Very low Very low Medium Very low Very high In situ Medium Low Low Low Low High Offshore High High Medium Very low Medium Medium Tight oil Low Very high High Medium High Low 50 Years 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories .
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