My Favorite Strategic Planning Stuff… “Keeping an Eye on Your World” 2019
Why Are We Here? "Companies that are doing well tend to continue to do well, …and companies that are doing poorly tend to continue to do poorly.“ - Carson Levit, Schwab 1/8/19! @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 2
Here’s what I hear…and what you know, right? • Fundamentally - conditions are still strong – Employment – Growth good – Detractors tame – Consumers strong – Investment still strong • A bit of uncertainty – Tariffs – Brexit – Shutdown impact • Long term risks • Opportunity risks @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 3 10-1
Strategy is Part Art, Part Science @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 4
Most companies start with the “Basics”? The Situation Analysis. @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 5
Harsh Reality. Take a simpler approach… @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 6
Industry Realities – Total Corporation 1 Significant Changes within the Company Important Changes in the Marketplace/Technology Negative ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ Positive ➢ ➢ ➢ Noteworthy Changes in the Competitive Environment Summary (has our market position improved, decayed, stayed about the same? Why?) ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ ➢ @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 7 7
But, Be Honest for a Second… 1. When does your company build their situation analysis each year? 2. When do you conduct and finish your strategic planning? Is it an annual cycle? Let me take you back… @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 8
Flash back to 2H 2017… Tax Reform Shapers of 2017 ELDs Environment First Major Hints of Tariff Wars December January July August September October November Situation Analysis Planning Meetings Setting Budgets Roll-Out @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 9
What’s coming…look at just 4 things… New Deal – China Soft Brexit 2.9%+ Open Trade Surges Slightly No Brexit Global PMI Better Deal Improves Brexit Tariff Wars intensify Asian Tiger Big change in Decision or go away. Recovery. the dollar? July August February March April May June 4 tigers No Decision Worsen Intensification • USMCA Hard Brexit • IMO 2020 • 2%- Impeachment China Dives • EU Contagion (either/or) • Good Brexit = Contagion • Bad Brexit = Bad Brexit @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 10
Dynamic Changes coming fast… • Everyone (in every sector) feeling the transition…an example • Opened in 1939 • Struggling in one year @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 11
More examples... Ama Amazon, , Kiva Kiva Sy Systems ms @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 12
There’s a New Paradigm in Strategic Planning… “Develop the next strategy when conditions have changed. Past practice has been to do a strategy review every year(s). However, developing strategy by the calendar ignores what is happening in the world . DOD should develop its next strategy when domestic or international circumstances have changed enough that the existing strategy is no longer viable .” To do this, you need a continuous situation analysis or a flexible strategy. @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 13
Corporate Operating Environment / Strategy Old Paradigm New/Future Paradigm Annual Planning Cycle Dynamic Planning Point-in-time Situation analysis Continuous Situation Reporting Scenario analysis, future-view storytelling Strategic Planning Process SWAT Team Planning On-Demand as market conditions change…and warrant Objective Setting Identify big Initiatives Budget Setting Measurement @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 14
You Need a FLEX STRAT!!! These things can an chan ange ge.. .. Continuous Situation Analysis Flexible Strategy Clear Understanding Objectives and Capabilities Beliefs and Limitations Sec. Def. Gen. “Mad Dog” Mattis @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 15
Keep it continuous and you’ll know when to flinch, blink, and change your strategy. 1. What are the likely future scenarios? 2. Eliminate the noise. 3. Help executive teams know where markets are headed with enough time and certainty that they can act and get ahead of it. Alternative Future Pos. Event Noise Here’s what we want to Pos. know…when is the market Event shifting – and where is it Noise Pos. shifting to? Noise Event Most Likely Gray Feint Event Future Gray Event Noise Noise Event Event Noise Gray Noise Neg Noise Event Event Feint Quickly Identify the Neg Noise Event Event Neg False Positives Noise Event Event Alternative Gray Gray Noise Gray Future Event Event Noise Noise Event Noise Noise Noise Today 6Months 12Months 18Months @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 16
You need real-time briefings – something that analyzes the strategic-impact of events. @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 17
Get in front of it. July 2018: Odd Global Manufacturing Cycle ing lerating US Canada 58.1 Acceler 56.9 Germany end Trend 60.0 Ac 50.0 56.9 Eurozone Mexico 55.1 52.1 France lerating ing 54.9 UK Taiwan Brazil Deceler 54.0 53.0 50.5 Japan 52.3 De China S. Korea 50.8 48.3 @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 18
Customer Value and Competition @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 19
Historical Positioning of _________________ 3 Inferior Offering Premium Offering 96 What’s your corporate vision? 97 2012 98 Fair Value Premium Zone 99 Emerging 2016 Leader? 2011 Cost 2015 2013 Premium 100 Leader? Middle of 2017 101 2014 the Pack? 102 Market Low Cost 103 Share Leader? 104 Winner? 105 106 Economy Offering Superior Offering 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 Quality ** Historical market position is an estimate. Axis is based on latest research wave. @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 20
Decision Matrix vs. [Competitor] 4 Fix Promote/Fix Promote • No Damages • Conscious / Ease of doing business • No shortages • Picked up when promised Latent • Delivered when promised • Competitive Transit Times • Cust. Service Responsive • On-Time Deliveries • Carrier Responsiveness • Problem Resolution • Helpful Sales Reps • Industry Importance Flexible Ops • Carrier is Trustworthy • Rate Stability • Tracking/Tracing Baseline • Competitive Pricing • Billing Accuracy • Pricing Terms Easy to Understand • Proactive Comms. • Claims Process • Accessorial Prices • Weighing • Useful Website Accuracy • Professional Drivers Low • Ease of Scheduling Pickup • Trucks Appearance Promote/Fix (Low Emphasis) Promote (Low Emphasis) Fix (Low Priority) Target Co. Little Perceptible Difference Target Co. Disadvantage Advantage Target vs. [Competitor] Performance @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 21
Competition: You need a perspective. Overmatch. @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 22
5 Kotler Competitive Positioning Map Market Leader Inner Circle Leader Aspirations $56B Wannabe Market Challengers $42B Our Them co. $8B XZZX $11B BHM $7.5B $1.5B Market Followers DTG $4.5B WQD PKB $5B $1.8B Growth OLO 1234 Oriented Nichers $19B $23B APL PLP Small XX $8B $9B Manuf. $21B Megacorp $100B ADR Small $8.5B Focused Manuf. Mega II $90B XXX $20B Gross < $1B < $8B > $40B Revenues @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 23
Can Change by Market, Geography, etc. Wichita Primary Competitive Market Map Market Leader(s) • Target Co. Market Challengers • GSI • Mkec • Cook, Flatt and Strobel • Poe and Assoc. WSP • Market Followers • Jaco • Baughman • Schwab-Eaton • Dudley Williams • Basis • Kaw Valley • Morrow • Garver Nichers • Foster Design • Global Aviation Tech. • 3 S Engin. • Ti Enter. • Transystems • Dubois • G Force • Ink Constr. • Stearns, Conrad, Schmidt • KE Miller • TEC • Ruggles and Bohm • Terracon • Trademark Inc • Certified Eng. Design Small Large @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 24
Can Change by Market, Geography, etc. Tulsa Primary Competitive Market Map Market Leader(s) • Linde Market Challengers • Wallace • Mott Macdonald • Tetra Tech • Target Co. • Poe and Assoc. • Cec • Matrix PDM • Select Engineering • Enercon Market Followers • Guy Engineering • Meshek and Assoc. • EDG • Sack and Assoc. • Excellence • MPW • Tulsa E&P • Houston Interests Nichers • All Consulting • Cyntergy • Flintco • Many small Oil and Gas Firms • Willbros • UOP Russell • Qps • Woolslayer • B&T (wireless) Small Large @armadacorpintel www.armada-intel.com 2019 25
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