Beyond the Storms Strengthening Security & Resilience in the 21 st Century ________________________ Dane S. Egli, PhD Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory 1
Why Why Cr Critica itical l Infra Infrast stru ruct ctur ure e Pr Prot otec ectio tion? n? So Society as ciety assu sumes mes it it wi will ll b be the e there re Priv rivate s ate sector ector: : ow owns ns & operates & operates approx 85% national approx 85% national inf infras rastructure tructure Mega ega-communities communities: : 85% of 85% of population liv population lives es on 26% of on 26% of land, land, generates generates 75% of 75% of GDP DP Bridges Bridges: : ov over er 25% are s 25% are structurally tructurally def deficient icient Dams Dams: : 85,000, 85,000, av average age ov erage age over 50 y er 50 yrs rs, , some ome 4,000 4,000 at risk at risk Financial Financial: : fragile ragile system tem w/cas cascading points cading points of of f failure, ailure, GPS timing timing Trans ransportation portation: 30% of : 30% of roads roads in in dis disrepair, repair, 36% 36% urban h urban highw ighway ays conge congested ted Oil il: : ov over 8 er 80% 0% of U of US refined refined oil oil supp upply ly is is dis distribu tributed ted thro through ugh a a sing ingle le hub hub Maritime aritime : 361 major ports, 13B containers/year, world’s largest trade ($645B) Pandemic I andemic Inf nfluenza luenza: : lack v lack vaccines accines for v or virus irus outbreak impacting outbreak impacting ov over 156M er 156M Gov overnance ernance: legis : legislation, lation, CFRs CFRs, , statutes tatutes des designed igned for 20 or 20 th th century century Leaders Leadership hip: : need need integrated national integrated national framew ramework f ork for action or action
St Stud udy y Ob Objec jective tives Con Condu duct ct a a Strate Strategic Examina gic Examination tion to: to: • Unders Understand tand curr current ent st state ate of CIP of CIP post post-9/11, 9/11, post post-Katr Katrina ina • Ide Identify ntify major major CIKR CIKR challenges acr challenges across oss nation nation • Condu Conduct ct emp empirical irical research research to support to support sy syst stemic emic fin finding dings • Propose new Propose new solut solutions ions that that impact impact national policies national policies “The ability to protect the critical infrastructure and key resources of the United Sta tates tes is is vital ital to our to our na national s tional security ecurity, , public public health health and s and saf afety ety, , economic v economic vitality itality, , and and way of life.” DHS Secretary (2006)
Globalized Glob alized Ec Econ onom omy Complex, int Complex, interconnected, erconnected, simult simultaneously aneously operat operating sy ing syst stem em of of sy syst stems ems This his is is a lo a local cal-regio gional nal-sta tate te-fede ederal al-na nation tional al-con contine tinenta ntal-inte nterna nation tional al is issue ue Inter ntermodal modal suppl upply chains hains and impacting and impacting economies economies
18 18 C Cri riti tica cal l Infrastruc Infrastructure ture Se Secto ctors rs Highly i Highly inter nterdependent dependent yet yet independently independently gover governed sy ned syst stems ems Chemical Energy Dams Nuclear Defense Critical Reactors, Industrial Manufacturing Materials & Base Waste Banking & Postal & Communications Finance Shipping Transportation Information Commercial Systems Technology Facilities National Government Emergency Monuments & Facilities Services Icons Health Care Food & Water & Public Agriculture Health
Ja Japa pan n Ea Eart rthq hqua uake ke Ca Case se St Stud udy Earth Earthqu quak ake, e, Tsuna Tsunami, mi, Fu Fuku kushima shima Nuc Nuclear lear Di Disast saster er 9.0 9.0 magnitude earthquake magnitude earthquake of off • Eas astern Japan coas tern Japan coast in 2011 t in 2011 Triggered ts riggered tsunami unami wav aves es up to 133 up to 133 • ft; t; flooding, looding, eros erosion, ion, ground ground saturation, aturation, dis disrupted global rupted global supply upply chains chains Nuclear dis uclear disas aster ter natural/ natural/man man-made made • imp impact acts; ; seco econd nd onl only to C to Cher hernob nobyl, l, Ukraine in kraine in 1986 1986 Signif ignificant icant dis disas aster ter les lessons ons for or • internation international al commun community ity: - National ational culture of culture of preparednes preparedness - Soci ociety ety em embra braced ced un unity ity-of of-eff effort ort - Unity nity-of of-command command failed ailed at the t at the top op - Digital Digital systems tems enabled comms enabled comms - Lev Leveraged high eraged high-tech s tech social ocial media media - Submarine cables ubmarine cables highly highly vulnerable ulnerable
Hurrica Hur ricane ne Iren Irene e Cas Case e Stu Study dy Post Post-Kat Katrina rina te test st of na of nation tional pre al prepa pare redn dness ess • Only hurricane to make landfall INCONUS in 2011 • Came ashore in NC and impacted 12 states and 1/8 of U.S. population • Fragile infrastructure lacking flexible resilience • Revealed major capability gaps in CIKR system: - EC weeks w/o electricity - Trees destroyed power lines - State MAAs not established - Systems lack redundancy - ER transportation barriers - Large gaps between national policy/local levels
Hur Hurrica ricane ne San Sandy dy Cas Case e Stu Study dy Oct Octob ober er 201 2012 2 Fr Fran anke kenst nstor orm • Largest Atlantic hurricane on record, 90 mph winds, 1,100 miles in diameter, impacted 24 states • Second only to Katrina in damage costs and economic interruption (est. $66M), 10 million customers lost power • 253 deaths across seven-country path from Caribbean to Northeastern U.S. Irene Aug 2011 • Revealed need for significant change… Sandy Oct 2012 transformational approach in CIKR, Preparedness, Resiliency - Hit U.S. most densely-populated region - Fujiwhara effect w/hurricane- nor’easter hybrid - Cascading impact on global intermodal systems - NYSE closed for 2 days, travelers stranded - Flooded subways, tunnels, ports, airports - Storm surge of 14’, 1,000 -mile fetch - Power, Comms, Housing, Sanitation, Donations - Major inflection point for disaster mgmt planners
Po Port rt Autho Authori rity ty New York/New New York/New Je Jersey rsey ( (PANY PANYNJ) NJ) Internat International ional cros crossr sroads oads of intermodal of intermodal commerce commerce Hub of interconnected global supply chains 2,000 waterways NYC population over 8 million 2 Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) PANJNY 2012 budget $7B 3,500 longshore workforce Nation’s #2 container port 2011 TEU containers 5.3 million 1,340 acres of port terminal 80 tenants across business sectors
Ge Geor orge ge Wa Wash shing ingto ton n Br Bridg idge Gr Greates eatest t vehicular vehicular capacity capacity in t in the wor he world, ld, 106 million vehicles 106 million vehicles per per year year, , built built in 1931 in 1931
JF JFK K Int Inter erna natio tiona nal l Airp Airpor ort “Daniel Castillo walked in dripping wet…” 13 Aug 2012 USA Today
Tra Trans ns-Alask Alaska a Pipeline Pipeline Sys Syste tem m (TAPS) (TAPS) 800 miles from Pr 800 miles from Prudhoe Bay udhoe Bay to V to Valdez aldez, pr , privat ivately ely owned by owned by t the he Aly Alyeska eska Pipeline S Pipeline Serv ervice Company ice Company
93 93 Major Major Findings Findings 20 T 20 Themes from hemes from polici policies, es, SME interview interviews, s, case case studies studies Res Resilience ilience Str Strat ategic egic Vis ision ion Policy Factor Policy Factors Cult ultur ural al Fac Facto tors rs Ris Risk k As Asses sessment sments Meas easur ureme ement nts-Met etric rics Mi Mitigat tigation ion Public Public-Priv Private Part ate Partners nerships hips Nati National Framew onal Framework ork Who Whole le-of of-Nat Nation C ion Challe hallenge nges Internat International ional Collabor Collaboration ation Capa apabilit bilities ies Appr pproac oach Intelligence Intelligence Inf Infor ormat mation Sha ion Sharin ring Legislat Legislation ion Changes Changes Ope Opera ratio tional nal Applic pplicat ation ion Cyber Cyber Se Security curity Meas easur ureme ement nts & & Met etric rics Global Supply Chains Global Supply Chains Mar arit itime ime Secur Securit ity
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