Sticking to the first law of thermodynamics and the rule of three - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

manicore.com Sticking to the first law of thermodynamics and the rule of three IHP - October 2015 Jean-Marc Jancovici Jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com Jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org jmj@manicore.com

According to you, what is energy? Something to be saved! My electricity or gas bill (why can be unclear) What changes the world, Something I’m full of or I missed something? when I really feel great www.manicore.com

Energy, stronger than euros (or dollars) By definition, energy = change : Change of temperature Change of speed Change of shape Change of chemical composition Change of position in a field Change of atomic composition Creating or absorbing radiation… Counting energy is therefore nothing else than counting how much the physical world has changed www.manicore.com

The laws of physics will always remain stronger than our desires The law of conservation imposes that man can only take advantage of a source of energy that already exists in the environment (primary energy) All primary energies are free: no one ever paid a single cent for the formation of oil, gas, waterfalls or coal. Fossil fuels are as free as renewables. The “cost of energy” represents only salaries and rents that had to be paid to other humans in the course of extracting energy from the environment. Nature never gets paid. The more an energy source is diffuse and non manageable, the more expensive it will be. It’s just physics. www.manicore.com

Nietzsche wanted supermen, oil did the job 80 kg + 10 kg up 2000 m x 10 ≈ 0,5 kWh 1,5 € /L : 0,4 € /kWh 1 day out of 2: 100 kWh/year ÷ 500 10 kWh @ 1000 € /month: 200 € /kWh 2-4 kWh Even a slave: 4-40 € /kWh ÷ 10-100 mechanical 6 m 3 earth lifted output up 1 m 1 L x 100 0,05 kWh per day (10 kWh/year) ÷ 5000 2000 € /kWh www.manicore.com

Yummy kWh, or plenty of (fossil) food for plenty of machines… 20.000 kWh per person and per year ≈ 200 “energy slaves” per capita Energy consumption per capita, 1880 to 2013. Source: Jancovici, 2014, on primary data coming from Schilling et al., 1977, BP Statistical Review, 2014, UN & World Bank 2014 www.manicore.com

Very moral, very efficient, but alas not renewable at all + = 200 (world average) to 600-1000 (Western average) www.manicore.com

Our economy seen by classical economists Capital Productive system Production Work www.manicore.com

Actually, you'd better have some resource! Resources Capital Productive system Production Work Muscles = 1 Machines + Energy = 200 ! www.manicore.com

The best macroeconomic model in the world: a straight line 2014 1965 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2014. Source World Bank 2015 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2015 for energy www.manicore.com

No energy, no GDP Annual change of the world energy consumption (green) and the world GDP (blue). Source World Bank 2015 for the GDP and BP Stat 2015 for energy www.manicore.com

No fossil fuels: no need to promise any growth! 3% per year for eternity? Beginning of fossil fuels 1000 years with 1800 years with no growth almost no growth World GDP reconstituted from 0 to 2003. Source Maddison, 2010 www.manicore.com

The fire age, perpetual growth and two questions Boom? = GDP Ores & minerals, CO 2 oceans and soils, wood, all living species… (all free also) Present job structure, leisure and holidays, long studies, health, retirement, globalization, information society, urban concentration and sprawling… O 2 Crack? C n H p Free !! www.manicore.com

Mathematics are definitely hateful As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that : It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant extraction ! In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction : It is nil at - ∞ It is nil at + ∞ It goes through an absolute maximum in between www.manicore.com

Mathematics are definitely The peak ! hateful As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that : It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant !%#"! extraction ! !%""! In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction : !$#"! !%#! !$""! It is nil at - ∞ !%"! !#"! It is nil at + ∞ !"! !$#! $! %! &! '! #! (! )! *! +! $"! $$! $%! $&! $'! $#! $(! $)! $*! $+! %"! %$! %%! %&! %'! %#! %(! %)! %*! %+! &"! &$! &%! &&! &'! &#! &(! &)! &*! &+! '"! '$! '%! '&! ''! '#! '(! ')! '*! '+! #"! #$! #%! #&! #'! ##! #(! #)! #*! #+! ("! ($! (%! (&! ('! (#! ((! ()! (*! (+! )"! )$! )%! )&! )'! )#! )(! ))! )*! )+! *"! *$! *%! *&! *'! *#! *(! *)! **! *+! +"! +$! +%! +&! +'! +#! +(! +)! +*! ++! $""!$"$!$"%!$"&!$"'!$"#!$"(!$")!$"*!$"+!$$"!$$$!$$%!$$&!$$'!$$#!$$(!$$)!$$*!$$+!$%"!$%$!$%%!$%&!$%'!$%#!$%(!$%)!$%*!$%+!$&"!$&$!$&%!$&&!$&'!$&#!$&(!$&)!$&*!$&+!$'"!$'$!$'%!$'&!$''!$'#!$'(!$')!$'*!$'+!$#"!$#$!$#%!$#&!$#'!$##!$#(!$#)!$#*!$#+!$("!$($!$(%!$(&!$('!$(#!$((!$()!$(*!$(+!$)"!$)$!$)%!$)&!$)'!$)#!$)(!$))!$)*!$)+!$*"!$*$!$*%!$*&!$*'!$*#!$*(!$*)!$**!$*+!$+"!$+$!$+%!$+&!$+'!$+#!$+(!$+)!$+*!$++!%""! !$"! It goes through an absolute maximum in between !#! !"! $! %! &! '! #! (! )! *! +! $"! $$! $%! $&! $'! $#! $(! $)! $*! $+! %"! %$! %%! %&! %'! %#! %(! %)! %*! %+! &"! &$! &%! &&! &'! &#! &(! &)! &*! &+! '"! '$! '%! '&! ''! '#! '(! ')! '*! '+! #"! #$! #%! #&! #'! ##! #(! #)! #*! #+! ("! ($! (%! (&! ('! (#! ((! ()! (*! (+! )"! )$! )%! )&! )'! )#! )(! ))! )*! )+! *"! *$! *%! *&! *'! *#! *(! *)! **! *+! +"! +$! +%! +&! +'! +#! +(! +)! +*! ++! $""!$"$!$"%!$"&!$"'!$"#!$"(!$")!$"*!$"+!$$"!$$$!$$%!$$&!$$'!$$#!$$(!$$)!$$*!$$+!$%"!$%$!$%%!$%&!$%'!$%#!$%(!$%)!$%*!$%+!$&"!$&$!$&%!$&&!$&'!$&#!$&(!$&)!$&*!$&+!$'"!$'$!$'%!$'&!$''!$'#!$'(!$')!$'*!$'+!$#"!$#$!$#%!$#&!$#'!$##!$#(!$#)!$#*!$#+!$("!$($!$(%!$(&!$('!$(#!$((!$()!$(*!$(+!$)"!$)$!$)%!$)&!$)'!$)#!$)(!$))!$)*!$)+!$*"!$*$!$*%!$*&!$*'!$*#!$*(!$*)!$**!$*+!$+"!$+$!$+%!$+&!$+'!$+#!$+(!$+)!$+*!$++!%""! www.manicore.com

So… Refinery CTL, Deep Extra- Conventionnal NGL gains biofuels offshore heavy World liquid production, by primary source. Source : « Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections », Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Canberra (Australia), 2009 www.manicore.com

And if we don’t want a massive change? 2015 Cumulated CO 2 emissions since 1870 in Gt Temperature increase in 2100 arising from cumulated emissions since 1870. IPCC, 2015 www.manicore.com

Back to high school or almost ÷ 3 Emission scenarios leading to radiative forcing scenarios. IPCC, 2015 www.manicore.com

If we want to lower emissions, it is better to know where they are Eating (meat dominates) Energy use: no more coal! Breakdown of world GHG emissions in 2014. Jancovici, on various data. www.manicore.com

Fancy a little rule of three ? The Kaya identity: To be divided by 3 by 2050… and will! Magic technique N° 2: � CO 2 per kWh = Problem: ≈ 0% in 15 years! +nuke, RE, CCS & switch coal -> gas + 25% in 2050? Magic technique N° 1: � NRJ per $ of GDP Problem: ≈ 0% in 15 years! + 2% per year = x 2 in 36 years; + 4% per year = x 4 in 36 years! www.manicore.com

Questions? www.manicore.com