1 Sonoma Clean Power Board of Directors Regular Meeting June 4, 2020 Economic Forensics and Analytics eyler@econforensics.com National Economic Education Delegation jon@needelegation.org
2 Overview • Forecast to 2025, with emphasis on 2020-2021 for: • US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), California Gross State Product (GSP), California Personal Income (PI), all in 2012 dollars. • California, Sonoma County, Mendocino County Employment • Establishments to Small and Large Commercial Meters • Occupied Housing Units in Sonoma and Mendocino counties • Permits, Sonoma and Mendocino counties • Electric Vehicles, California • Delinquencies in California (data not available at county level) • SCP area when applicable = Sonoma and Mendocino counties less Healdsburg and Ukiah • Assuming history is a guide, as are the connections of national to state to county economies.
3 GDP: United States
4 GDP: California
5 GDP: Comparing Median Forecasts Recovery: US: Q1-2023 CA: Q4-2022
6 Employment: Sonoma County Median Good Terrible 260,000 250,000 240,000 230,000 220,000 210,000 200,000 190,000 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Mar-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jul-20 Feb-21 Sep-21 Apr-22 Nov-22 Jun-23 Jan-24 Aug-24 Mar-25 Oct-25 Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
7 Employment: Mendocino County Median Good Terrible 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Mar-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jul-20 Feb-21 Sep-21 Apr-22 Nov-22 Jun-23 Jan-24 Aug-24 Mar-25 Oct-25 Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
8 Forecast: Establishments SCP
9 Vulnerability NAICS-2 Code Vulnerable (%) Industry Sector 11 30 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 21 30 Mining 22 30 Utilities 23 50 Construction 31-33 50 Manufacturing 42 40 Wholesale Trade 44-45 70 Retail Trade 48-49 35 Transportation and Warehousing 51 20 Information 52 30 Finance and Insurance 53 50 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 54 40 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 55 0 Management of Companies and Enterprises 56 60 Admin, Support, and Waste Services 61 60 Educational Services 62 20 Health Care and Social Assistance 71 70 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 72 70 Accommodation and Food Services 81 50 Other Services (except Public Administration) 92 35 Public Administration 99 40 Other
10 Forecast: Large Comm Meters to 2025 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Nov-22 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Large Comm Median Large Comm Good Large Comm Terrible Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
11 Forecast: Small Comm Meters to 2025 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jul-21 Nov-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Nov-22 Mar-23 Jul-23 Nov-23 Mar-24 Jul-24 Nov-24 Mar-25 Jul-25 Nov-25 Small Comm Median Small Comm Good Small Comm Terrible Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
Occupied Housing Units 175,000 180,000 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 220,000 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Mar-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jul-20 Feb-21 Sep-21 Apr-22 Nov-22 Jun-23 12 Jan-24 Aug-24 Mar-25
13 Permits, 12-month Run Rate SCP Area Forecasts: Permits 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jan-01 Feb-02 Mar-03 Apr-04 May-05 Jun-06 Jul-07 Aug-08 Sep-09 Oct-10 Nov-11 Dec-12 Jan-14 Feb-15 Mar-16 Apr-17 May-18 Jun-19 Jul-20 Aug-21 Sep-22 Oct-23 Nov-24 Dec-25 Median Good Terrible Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
14 EV Sales CA, Thousands of Units, 12-month Run Rate Median Good Terrible 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-2019 May-2019 Aug-2019 Nov-2019 Feb-2020 May-2020 Aug-2020 Nov-2020 Feb-2021 May-2021 Aug-2021 Nov-2021 Feb-2022 May-2022 Aug-2022 Nov-2022 Feb-2023 May-2023 Aug-2023 Nov-2023 Feb-2024 May-2024 Aug-2024 Nov-2024 Feb-2025 May-2025 Aug-2025 Nov-2025 Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
15 % Transition to 30 Days or more on Household Debt, Quarterly % of 30 Days or more 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Jan-2003 Nov-2003 Sep-2004 Jul-2005 May-2006 Mar-2007 Jan-2008 Nov-2008 Sep-2009 Jul-2010 May-2011 Mar-2012 Jan-2013 Nov-2013 Sep-2014 Jul-2015 May-2016 Mar-2017 Jan-2018 Nov-2018 Sep-2019 Jul-2020 May-2021 Mar-2022 Jan-2023 Nov-2023 Sep-2024 Jul-2025 Median Good Terrible Note: Shaded Area Forecast Window
16 Summary • Economic forecasts : Good, Median, Terrible • Median forecast: • Recovery of large commercial meters in late 2021. • Recovery of small commercial meters – outside of our forecast window. • Occupied units forecast: based on CA-DOF • Continuous trend downward. • Permits • Back to 2009-2016 levels by late 2023. • EV Sales • Trending upward throughout forecast window. • Recovery by early 2023. • Delinquencies • Close to recovery of 2018/19 levels by 2025.
17 Thanks! Questions? Jon@NEEDelegation.org
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