Some perspectives on COP21 and the Paris Agreement. Dr. Debra Roberts Environmental Planning and Climate Protection Department Ethekwini Municipality
One of the greatest threats of the 21 st Century: Survey in 40 countries with more than 45 000 respondents (Pew Research Center, 2015) showed that the global population sees climate change as the greatest threat . Global economic instability (2 nd ) and ISIS (3 rd ). Countries in Latin America and Africa are particularly concerned about climate change.
The World Economic Forum (2016): “Global Risks 2015” report – after being in the top five risks for the past three years, the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation has risen to the top and is perceived as the most impactful risk for the years to come , ahead of weapons of mass destruction (2 nd ) and water crises (3 rd ).
Climate Vulnerability Monitor (2012) undertook a study commissioned by 20 of the world’s governments whose nations are most threatened by climate change. Found that climate change is already costing the global economy more $1.2 trillion a year - wiping 1.6% annually from global GDP while recent research (published in Nature in 2015) found that unmitigated global warming will leave global GDP per capita 23% lower in 2100 .
According to Climate Vulnerability Monitor According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) climate change is (2012) the figure of 150 000 excluded the already causing 150 000 deaths a year and a effects of heat waves, crop losses due to an new WHO report (2014) indicates climate increase in pests, and a range of other deadly change will lead to 250 000 extra deaths a diseases, which can be substantial. Estimated 400 000 annual deaths from climate change year from 2030. 150 000 figure took into projected to grow to 700 000 by 2030 . account deaths from malnutrition, malaria, and diarrhea caused by contaminated water.
A study of middle-class consumption in 215 cities (UBS, 2016) found that in high risk cities spent 0.6 - 0.8% more on housing compared to the national average, and less on luxuries, entertainment and durable goods. "More fear, less fun”. Given the group’s size, spending power and dynamism, the erosion of middle-class wealth through climate change threatens both economic and sociopolitical stability .
What is climate change?
Earth is the “Goldilocks” planet: not too hot and not too cold.
Sources of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 6.4% 24% 14% 21% 35% Building Sector Agriculture, Transport Industry forests and other land uses Energy Sector 2010 GHG emissions AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Who is the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ? Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 to provide policy-makers with an objective source of Multiple studies published information about in peer-reviewed scientific • causes of climate change journals show that 97% or more of actively publishing • climate scientists agree that: potential environmental and socio-economic impacts • Climate-warming trends over the past century are • very likely due to human possible response options activities. (adaptation and mitigation). WMO= World Meteorological Organization UNEP= United Nations Environment Programme
IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) released 2013/2014 EVERYONE
Key messages from AR5 • Human influence on the climate system is clear • The more the climate is disrupted through Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions, the more we increase the risk of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems • While climate change poses a threat to sustainable development, there are opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives when addressing climate change. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing if we are to achieve the 2 o C goal 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2 o C goal is already used. "For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% of staying below 2 o C internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 °C relative Amount to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon Remaining: budget estimate is 590 – 1,240 GtCO 2 from 2015 1000 1000 Total Carbon Budget: GtCO 2 onwards…Current CO 2 emissions are about 40 GtCO 2 2900 2900 Amount Used yr ” ( Rogelj et al ., 2016). 1870-2011: GtCO 2 1900 900 GtCO 2 The carbon budget would be spent in 15 - 30 years for the 2 °C target and about a decade for a 1.5°C target. NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
There will be substantial technological, economic and institutional challenges if we want to limit warming to 2 ° C relative to pre- industrial levels . Implies reducing global GHG emissions by 40 to 70% compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reaching zero or negative emissions by 2100. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
So how do we turn this science into policy?
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) opened for signature at Rio Earth Summit in 1992 Objective of the Convention: to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous interference with the climate system .
UNFCCC Timeline Negotiations started in 1995. But COP17 in Durban (2011) was a critical turning point: • Governments committed to a new universal legal climate change agreement by 2015 (“ a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties ”) that would apply from 2020. • Led to the launch of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action or ADP . • The new negotiation platform also critically included finding ways to raise the existing level of national and international ambition (i.e. pre 2020 ) to bring down GHG.
President Zuma reminded everyone that Paris was about finishing the job we started in Durban Paris (COP21) “As Leaders, we are here today because of the historic and bold Lima (COP20-2014) decisions we took in Durban to enhance the implementation of the Convention...For South Africa, the Warsaw (COP19 - 2013) Durban decision to enhance the implementation of the Convention was of paramount importance, because the impacts of climate Doha (COP18 -2012) change are harshest on the poor . Climate change is a major global challenge that requires an urgent global response ” . Durban (COP17- 2011)
COP21-CMP11 – Paris, France: 30 November-12 December 2015 COP21 in numbers: 50+: pages in the final negotiating text for the conference. 150 : the number of heads of state who attended the opening day - largest ever single-day gathering of heads of state. 2 800: police at the conference venue. 20 000: people accredited to attend the conference. 38 000: attended the conference and related side events 24 : hours past the official deadline
Deciding our future 3 important climate milestones just before Paris: 1. Recognition that 2015 was set to be the hottest year on record. 2. The UK Meteorological Office announced that climate change was set to pass the milestone of 1 o C of warming since pre-industrial times (1750) by the end of 2015, representing “uncharted territory” – we are half way to 2 o C already! 3. The World Meteorological Organization announced that 2016 would be the first year in which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is over 400ppm on average , due to the continued burning of fossil fuels. This is up from about 278ppm in 1750. • Note: while 400ppm is regarded as a “symbolic milestone” scientists say that the ‘safe’ level of CO 2 to avoid dangerous global warming is more like 350ppm.
Everyone knew we were going to make history…one way or another • " A political moment like this may not come again. We have never faced such a test. But neither have we encountered such great opportunity ”. • “ The decisions you make here will reverberate down through the ages .” UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
Place de la République People also knew what was at stake…around the world 600 000 people demonstrated in favour of a strong agreement…while in Paris a ban on public gatherings in the wake of the 13 th November terror attacks meant it was a case of “ the shoes are marching for us .”
Central 3 elements to the Paris Outcome The Paris Agreement : The text commonly called the “Paris Agreement” is actually two different documents. Firstly, the Agreement itself, which is a legally binding treaty on climate action and which contains emission reduction commitments from 187 countries starting in 2020. COP Decision : And secondly, the Paris Decision, which passes the agreement and sets out a number of less legally binding ways with immediate effect to accelerate climate action and to prepare for the implementation of the Paris Agreement once it enters into force. Lima Paris Action Agenda : Alongside the formal agreements a large number of commitments for additional action to reduce emissions and increase resilience were made by countries, regions, cities, investors, and companies e.g. Breakthrough Energy Coalition announced by Bill Gates and other billionaires. .
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