Softwood Market Survey International Softwood Confernce Geneva, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Softwood Market Survey International Softwood Confernce Geneva, 8th October 2007 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Data provided by EOS members and associated contacts Incomplete data completed with figures from UNECE and other sources � Crucial to receive complete and reliable data E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Production of softwood E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

General overview Development of Softwood production (000 m 3 ) – according to region 2006 2007 2008 EUROPE (EOS) 103.986 m 3 110.230 m 3 112.930 m 3 NORTH AMERICA* 124.395 m 3 117.238 m 3 116.099 m 3 OTHER 6.646 m 3 6.875 m 3 7.040 m 3 * Data for North America based on data provided by the Western Wood Products Association (WWPA) 240.000 230.000 220.000 210.000 200.000 2005 2006 2007* 2008** E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

North America: Decline 75.000 50.000 25.000 0 IT AT CZ FI BE CH DE FR NO RO RU SE DK LV UK CAN USA 2006 2007 2008 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

EOS: Continuous growth 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE 2006 2007 2008 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Relative shares (2006) BE USA AT 0,6% CH 28,6% 4,4% 0,6% CZ 1,6% DE 9,9% CAN FI 24,3% 5,2% FR UK 3,4% SE RU 1,2% IT RO DK LV 7,7% 8,4% NO 0,4% 1,1% BE 0,2% 1,4% 1,0% AT SE 1,3% CH 9,9% 17,3% 1,4% CZ 3,7% RU DE 19,0% 22,4% RO 2,5% FR FI NO 7,7% 11,7% 2,3% IT 0,8% E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

% variation in production (2006) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% IT AT FI CZ CAN CH RO RU NO FR USA DK UK LV SE DE BE E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Other markets United Kingdom – Strong increase in production (3 million m 3 , i.e. +7.5% in 2007) Denmark – Highly concentrated market (+ 50 mills) with stable production (500 thousand m 3 ) Latvia – Increased production (3.3 million m 3 , i.e. +2.2%) China – Growing production following an expansion of the production capacity and log supply from Russia E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Consumption of softwood E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

General overview Development of Softwood consumption (000 m 3 ) – according to region 2006 2007 2008 EUROPE 67.684 m 3 71.508 m 3 71.880 m 3 NORTH AMERICA* 138.334 m 3 124.450 m 3 121.915 m 3 OTHER 14.170 m 3 14.789 m 3 15.107 m 3 * Data for North America based on data provided by the Western Wood Products Association (WWPA) 225.000 200.000 175.000 150.000 2005 2006 2007* 2008 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

North America: strong decline 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 IT AT CZ FI BE CH DE FR NO RO RU SE DK LV UK CAN USA 2006 2007 2008 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

EOS: looking good 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 AT BE CH CZ DE FI FR IT NO RO RU SE 2006 2007 2008 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Relative shares (2006) AT BE USA 2,4% 1,0% 53,9% CH 0,7% CZ 1,0% DE 9,2% FI 2,2% FR CAN NO 4,9% SE UK LV IT 8,9% 1,3% 2,3% 4,4% FI 0,7% 3,3% FR RU RO 7,3% DK 15,8% 2,0% 0,5% 1,3% IT DE 10,8% 29,9% NO 4,2% CZ RU RO SE 3,3% AT 6,5% 1,5% CH 7,4% 7,7% BE 2,4% 3,2% E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

% variation in consumption (2006) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% IT RU CZ CH FI FR AT SE USA UK NO CAN RO DK BE DE LV E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Other markets United Kingdom – High demand in 2007 (over 10 million m 3 , i.e +4.4% in 2007) Latvia – Increased demand (1.8 million m 3 , i.e. +17.6% in 2006 and + 12.2% in 2007) Denmark – Solid demand (2.8 million m 3 ), but mounting insecurity for future China – Continuous rise in consumption up to 330 million m 3 by 2010 E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Sawn softwood trade E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R IT N O R O R U S E E O S D K L V U K C A N U S A T O T A L E x p o rt 6 .6 9 4 1 .0 0 0 2 2 1 1 .9 4 3 7 .2 9 5 7 .7 1 2 9 1 4 6 2 4 7 2 1 .6 1 6 1 5 .4 2 8 1 3 .2 0 3 5 6 .5 3 8 1 5 0 2 .1 6 2 2 5 0 3 7 .9 0 9 2 .1 7 5 9 9 .1 8 4 Im p o rt 1 .6 4 1 1 .8 5 0 3 3 9 3 5 5 4 .2 3 4 5 1 5 3 .5 7 3 6 .4 0 9 9 8 3 2 3 6 2 1 1 1 9 .7 5 6 2 .7 5 0 4 5 1 7 .1 8 6 5 0 3 5 3 .5 2 0 8 4 .1 6 6 S u rp lu s /D e fic it 5 .0 5 3 -8 5 0 -1 1 8 1 .5 8 8 3 .0 6 1 7 .1 9 7 -2 .6 5 9 -6 .3 4 7 -5 1 1 1 .5 9 3 1 5 .4 2 2 1 2 .9 9 2 3 6 .7 8 2 -2 .6 0 0 1 .7 1 1 -6 .9 3 6 3 7 .4 0 6 -5 1 .3 4 5 1 5 .0 1 8 • Europe is a net exporter of sawn softwood compared to North America as a net importer • Net exporters: CA, RU and SE • Net importers: USA, UK and IT • China • exports and imports have increased, although the latter at a slower pace E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Softwood logs E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Availability of logs (2007) High Normal Low USA (WWPA) AT USA (RISI) DK AU DE FI NO RO FR CH RU AT (storm) BE CZ E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Log trade (2006) A T B E C H C Z D E F I F R IT N O R O R U S E E O S L V U K C A N U S A T O T A L E x p o rt 4 4 0 5 4 0 1 .2 5 0 1 .7 9 4 3 .6 0 0 2 4 2 9 1 7 - 2 5 3 8 2 0 .5 0 0 1 .5 1 0 3 1 .0 5 4 3 9 9 1 3 6 4 .6 5 0 7 .0 4 4 4 3 .2 8 3 Im p o rt 6 .0 3 4 6 8 5 1 2 8 6 4 2 .6 0 0 3 .1 3 7 7 3 4 - 2 5 3 2 7 0 2 0 0 7 5 0 1 5 .5 3 9 6 0 9 3 7 7 2 .8 5 0 2 .1 3 3 2 1 .5 0 8 S u rp lu s /D e fic it -5 .5 9 4 -1 4 5 1 .2 3 8 9 3 0 1 .0 0 0 -2 .8 9 5 1 8 3 - 0 -2 6 2 2 0 .3 0 0 7 6 0 1 5 .5 1 5 -2 1 0 -2 4 1 1 .8 0 0 4 .9 1 1 2 1 .7 7 5 • Europe and North America are net exporters • Mainly Russia • Net importers: AT and FR • China • Net importer with growing need for logs E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl

Cost and price developments E.O.S. European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry aisbl O.E.S. Organisation Européenne des Scieries aisbl Organisation E.O.S. Europäische Organisation der Sägewerke aisbl