COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE Socio-Economic Opportunities in Technological Change: Collaborative Community Resilience Linton Wells II linwells@gmail.com, 202 436.6354, Skype: linwells IRAHSS 2017 July 18, 2017
Summary • 4 th Industrial Revolution • Velocity of Tech Change • 7 Disruptive Techs “That Could be Worth Trillions” • Threat of Job Loss to AI and Automation • Collaborative Community Resilience (COLCORE) • COLCORE Components • STAR-TIDES • Status • Partnering Opportunities • Integrated Resilience and Risk Management • Research Needs Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, 7/18/2017 v4 2 +1.202.436.6354
Four Industrial Revolutions • 1 st ~1780s: • 2 nd ~1870: • 3 rd ~1969: • 4 th just beginning: fuse technologies “blur lines between physical, digital and biological spheres” Source: Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond,” 14 January 2016 http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/, accessed February 16, 2016 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 3
4 th Industrial Revolution (4 th IR) • Key distinctions between 3 rd & 4th revolutions: – Velocity of change, scope, and systems-wide impact • Massively disruptive , and accelerating • Transforming management , as well as production and distribution • Can provide very important collective benefits to society, but also negatively affect many individuals – Loss of jobs and pace of social change – Machine learning and artificial intelligence • Responses must engage public-private, whole-of- society, and trans-national stakeholders – In comprehensive, integrated ways 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 4
Velocity of Tech Change If a factor, e.g. computing power/unit cost, doubles every 18 mo, 5 yr increase is 900%, 10 yr 10,000%, 15 yr ~100,000% Growth in Computing Power per Unit Cost Capability doubles every 18 months Capability doubles every 24 months – Biotech even faster, robotics ubiquitous, nano poised breakout, energy impacts are global • - Think BRINE (bio-robo-info-nano-energy) + Additive Manufacturing Interactions complicate things Linear projections CAN’T work Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, 7/18/2017 v4 5 +1.202.436.6354
These 7 Disruptive Technologies “Could Be Worth Trillions of Dollars”* • Deep Learning -- $17T in tech, health, finance, xport, etc. • Mobility Services -- $10T by 2030, 20% to vehicle makers • 3D Printing of Finished Products at Scale -- $41B+ by 2025 • CRISPR and Related Tech -- Not on investors’ radar yet • Mobile Transactions – Up 15x to $15T by 2020. Asia leads • Robotics and Automation -- $12T increase in US by 2035 • Blockchain and Cryptoassets -- 60+% expect >$1T in 10 yrs * Projections by ARC From SingularityHub, June 16, 2017 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 6
4 th IR Job-Related Security Issues (1) • 4 th IR can raise global incomes and improve quality of lives – More unequal and disrupted labor markets – Loss of jobs, “low -skill/low- pay” and “high - skill/high pay” groups – Societal inequalities and social tensions • Service jobs particularly vulnerable to automation – Services are some 80% of developed world employment, growing role in developing economies – McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) 2017 study: • less than 5 percent of all occupations can be automated entirely • “about 60% of all occupations have at least 30% of constituent activities that could be automated .” [with present tech] 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 7
Job-Related Security Implications (2) • Impacts likely to be more severe in youth bulge areas – Parts of Islamic world, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, plus megacities and under-served parts of developed world – Pressures for migration & radicalization if NO entry level jobs • Hence no stake in international system • Many types of security problems: – Impact of a million refugees on Europe in 2015 – Many times more likely in future – High potential for domestic unrest, scapegoat- finding, radical nationalism and protectionism • Unless governments and the private sector “are really skillful in managing these changes” -- track record not encouraging The Economist has been especially good in reporting on these topics 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 8
Job-Related Security Implications (3) 4 th IR challenges are beyond focus of many government efforts – Could have exceptional prosperity (“Abundance”) – But there are potential threats to existing security structures • Political, social, economic & technological issues threaten true center of gravity of future conflicts: resilience of populations of engaged nations • Can challenge social compacts – How to shape a more optimistic future? Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 7/18/2017 v4 9
Proposal • Consider ways that build Community Resilience against diverse threats • Natural, man-made, and economic • Using collaborative (peering/sharing) approaches • Leveraging emerging technologies • Nation State often too big, family too small • Build on common community values of dignity, justice and fairness 7/18/2017 v4 Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 10
COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY Collaborative Community RESILIENCE Resilience* Promote Capable Communities that are: Productive, Resilient to Emerging Challenges and Sustainable by Local Resources Reduce Pressures for Migration, Radicalization and Marginalization * Previously called BROCADE (Building Resilient Opportunities in Culturally Aligned, Diverse Environments) 11
COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY How Can COLCORE Help? RESILIENCE Shift Focus from Threat to Opportunity Make it possible for those who want to stay to do so Leverage Robin Chase's " Peers, Inc. " construct to build community- based approaches: • " Inc. " represents industrial-strength "platforms" (like internet) • " Peers " (individuals ) can use platforms to innovate • Airbnb reached 650,00 beds in 4 years with 2 “platforms” • Internet and rooms • Uber also uses 2 “platforms” • Internet and cars Many more platforms can be leveraged 12
Potential Platform Groups Aligned with Multiple International Standards Agriculture, Food Security • High efficiency urban agriculture, UN OCHA food security, DHS food & agriculture sectors, SDG goal 2, KSS risk analysis & mitigation strategy for global food, water, energy Energy, Energy Storage • Aligns with SDG goal 7, UN OCHA clusters Water, Sanitation, Hygiene (WASH) • Aligns with UN & GIE WASH categories Information & Communications Technology (ICT) • Ubiquitous connectivity, UN Emergency Telecoms Cluster, Hastily Formed Networks, DHS IT & Comms, innovative learning, Conversational User Interfaces (CUI), cybersecurity Health, Nutrition, Integrated Cooking • STAR-TIDES Life Support & Integrated Cooking, Telemedicine, SDG Goal 3 Shelter, Heating/Cooling, Lighting • Low Cost, Culturally Aligned Shelters, GIE Housing & Infrastructure Lin Wells, linwells@gmail.com, +1.202.436.6354 7/18/2017 v4 13
COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE STAR-TIDES is a Global Knowledge-Sharing Research Project that Complements Collaborative Community Resilience • Leverage Global Talent – Share knowledge through www.star-tides.net network • Promote Integrated Approaches -- Integrate several "platforms" to meet local needs • Support Local Societies -- Listen to local populations • Seek solutions that they can sustain • Change Behaviors – Recognize that no lesson is really learned until behavior changes, so • Train, exercise, educate and incentivize to cause people to do things differently 13
COLLABORATIVE Two STAR-TIDES elements COMMUNITY RESILIENCE are key to COLCORE 1. Global network (www.star-tides.net): several thousand nodes worldwide: public-private, whole-of-government, trans-national 2. Integration of diverse technologies STAR-TIDES looks at cross-cutting approaches across six infrastructures, plus cross-cutting elements such as Narratives, Systems Thinking, Logistics, etc. Network members can help integrate multiple infrastructures (“platforms”) to support COL CORE communities – unique capability 14
COLLABORATIVE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE The goal is to “Make hope possible, rather than despair convincing”— Raymond Wilson Governance and institution-building will be key Must understand what dignity, justice and fairness mean in whatever culture is at the center of a particular project — technical solutions alone are never enough Promote human security: “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear” 15
Integrated COLCORE & STAR-TIDES Overview Social ( Resilience) Political (Governance) Economic ( Development) Technological (Platforms) Cross-Cutting Elements : Narrative; Systems Thinking; Shared Knowledge; Logistics; Digital Enabling Technology 7/18/2017 v4 17
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