Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Societal impact of FRA-ROMS data as outcomes GEOSS-AP WG: Ocean Observation and Society toward realization of “Blue Planet” in AP region Tokyo Japan 26-28 May 2014 The 7 th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium Fisheries Research Agency National Research Institute of Fisheries Science Takashi Setou: setou@affrc.go.jp

Table of contents ■ FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system  Model and System  Comparison analysis between with in-situ monitoring data and without. ■ Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact  Kuroshio Forecast  Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish ■ Supporting service for Fishery using monitoring data  Purpose  Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile anchovy

FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system FRA-ROMS from 2011 Our role: 1. Forecast the ocean condition 2. Forecast the associated fishing ground 3. Announce the information to Japanse people, especially Fishermen. FRA-ROMS URL:http://fm.dc.affrc.go.jp/fra-roms/index.html

FRA-ROMS model and assimilation Based Model： Regional Ocean Model FRA-ROMS North pacific System Resolution： 0.1°×0.1° Assimilation： 3Dvar Fujii and Kamachi,2003 Usui et al. 2005他 Topography： ETOPO5 Forcing： JRA25⇒JRA55 River：1（+8） Changian（Yellow River、 Yanding、Luanhe、 Amonkgang、Tedonggang、 Han、Geum、TeongSan） Period： 1993.Jan-now FRA-ROMS NW pacific

Operation of the FRA-ROMS system: (1-cycle=1-week) SSH anomaly SST In situ Temp. Sali. x o : observation x a ： Analysis S ← Z 3D-var assimilation x b ： Numerical model S → Z Time Tue:12:00 Sat:0:00 Tue:12:00 Reanalysis by Incremental Analysis Update

Comparison analysis between with in-situ monitoring data and without the data Purpose: We assessed the relative impact of Japan Prefectural Fisheries Institute monitoring data by comparing FRA-ROMS modeled fields with assimilated and withheld JPFI data. 50mTemperature difference between reanalysis and observation Without JPFI data With JPFI data

Table of contents ■ FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system  Model and System  Comparison experiment between with monitoring data and without. ■ Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact  Kuroshio Forecast  Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish ■ Supporting service Fishery using monitoring data Purpose  Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile anchovy

Why does FRA need to forecast the Kuroshio ? Answer: Kuroshio takes three typical path. The coastal condition such as temperature and the associated fishery ground depend on each path. Therefore, FRA needs to forecast the path. nNLM ： nearshore No Large Meander ⇒ Middle Temp along Japan coast oNLM ： offshore No Large Meander ⇒ Cooler Temp along Japan coast tLM ： typical Large Meander ⇒ Warmer Temp along Japan coast Fish ground changes with temperature !! Kawabe (1995), JPO

Application 1: Forecast of Kuroshio meander path FRA-ROMS forecast(start:2013.7.27 ） vs. Analyzed field by Japan Coast Guard 2013.7.27 Initial condition 2013.8.17 3weeks later 2013.8.3 1week later 2013.8.24 4weeks later Kuroshio Current 2013.8.10 2weeks later 2013.8.31 5weekw later

Application 2 : Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish Since 2002, Surge of ‘Giant Jellyfish's’ brings serious damages to fisheries in the waters around Japan. The forecast of the appearance of the Giant Jellyfish is needed for mitigation of damages. Giant Jellyfish Schematic View of (Nemopilema nomurai) Giant Jelly Fish migration Aug- To Japan sea and Japan coast May-July Photo by Dr. Honda Migration (JSNFRI,FRA) on continental shelf In East china Sea Giant Jellyfishs entered in a fishing net. July-Aug Passage through Tsushima strait Mar.-Apr Birth Around Changing river Mouth http://jsnfri.fra.affrc.go.jp/ Kurage/kurage_top.html

Application 2: Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish Forecasting method (Operate Routinely Spring - Summer) 1. Information from Ocean Forecast system of FRA FRA-ROMS current fields sampling and sighting 2. Jellyfish Forecast Particle model 3. forecast of jellyfish distribution : output 4. Assessment On FRA web page

Application 2: Appearance Forecast of the Giant Jelly fish An example of one month Forecasting of the Giant Jelly Fish migration Initial:2013Jun23th One month after: Real Appearance area Forecasting informed by R/V by Particle tracking Notice: Accuracy of forecasting has been confirmed by some real drifters.

Table of contents ■ FRA-ROMS ocean forecast system  Model and System  Comparison experiment between with monitoring data and without. ■ Application of the FRA-ROMS as Societal impact  Kuroshio Forecast  Appearance Forecast of the giant jelly fish ■ Supporting service for Fishery using monitoring data  Purpose  Correspondence between Kuroshio and catch of juvenile anchovy