Social Sciences Week 2020 Dr Jenny Chesters MGSE, The University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Social Sciences Week 2020 Dr Jenny Chesters MGSE, The University of Melbourne

Introduction • The COVID-19 shutdowns brought the precarity of deregulated labour into focus • Young people tend to bear the brunt of labour market contractions • In the recessions of 1983 and 1992-93 and also at the peak of the GFC, youth unemployment rates were far higher than those of the general workforce • Lifetime effects on employment, earnings and happiness due to entering the labour market during a recession

Mean levels of happiness [HILDA data] Birth cohort 2001 2006 2011 2016 1936-1940 8.29 8.24 8.27 8.27 1941-1945 8.02 8.22 8.19 8.16 1946-1950 7.99 7.92 8.01 8.21 1951-1955 7.83 7.81 7.90 8.03 1956-1960 7.71 7.64 7.73 7.83 1961-1965 7.71 7.60 7.63 7.67 1966-1970 7.87 7.71 7.77 7.73 1971-1975 7.75 7.78 7.76 7.63 1976-1980 7.86 7.71 7.85 7.75 1981-1985 8.08 7.80 7.87 7.87

Youth unemployment rate 1971-1977 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 15-19 years 20+ years

Terminology • Unemployment rate: the percentage of people in the labour force who are not employed • Underemployment rate: the percentage of people who are employed part-time but want to work additional hours • Labour force: everyone who is employed or seeking to be employed • Unemployed: must be willing and able to work; not unemployed if working one hour/ week; sick and unable to work

Trends in underemployment and unemployment rates: 1978-2020 • ABS data: underemployment and unemployment rates: 15-19 years; 20-24 years; 25-34 years • Spikes in 1983, 1992-3; 2009; 2020 • 2020 is unprecedented: the cause of the economic contraction is a pandemic

Underemployment and unemployment rates 1978-2020: 15-19 years 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 underemployment rate unemployment rate

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 0.0 5.0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Underemployment and unemployment rates 1978-2020: 20-24 years 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Underemployment rate 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Unemployment rate 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 0.0 5.0 1978 1979 1980 Underemployment and unemployment rates 1978-2020: 25-34 years 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Underemployment rate 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Unemployment rate 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

What do these graphs illustrate? • Economic recoveries are taking longer • Despite not experiencing a recession in 2009, unemployment and underemployment rates increased and have not returned to their pre- GFC levels • The situation was dire before the pandemic

Outcomes of high rates of unemployment/ underemployment • Excess capacity in the labour market gives employers more power • Able to offer part-time and/or casual work • Sizeable proportion of young people cannot secure full-time employment • Markers of adulthood delayed due to employment status: relationship commitments [marriage]; financial commitments [buying a home]; parenting

Life Patterns project • Based in the Youth Research Centre at The University of Melbourne • CIs: E/Prof. Johanna Wyn; Prof. Helen Cahill; A/Prof. Dan Woodman • Tracking 2 cohorts since secondary school • Cohort 1: 1991- 2020 [18- 48 years] • Cohort 2: 2005- 2020 [17- 33 years] • 2020 J. Wyn, H. Cahill, D. Woodman, H. Cuervo, C. Leccardi and J. Chesters (Eds.) Springer. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/97898115 33648

Education throughout the life course • Changes in the labour market create different employment opportunities • Mass higher education= intense competition for high status careers • Technological innovation = skills need to be updated • Returning to education is now common • By 2017, 60% of the 1991 cohort had gained a new qualification after the age of 25

Cohort 1 education

Why return to study? • Cohort 2 in 2018 • 75% agreed that their qualification helped them to get their current job • 16% were currently studying • Of those, 51% were seeking new employment opportunities; 19% were required by their employer to study; 15% were seeking a promotion

Employment outcomes • In several recent publications, we have reported on the employment outcomes of our participants • Many have experienced precarious employment • Precarious employment is now a feature of labour markets • Changing jobs and changing careers is now common

Quotes • After graduation, I was unable to find jobs in the field of my study so I chose a different career path. Fortunately, I enjoy working as a manager and have stayed with the same company since graduating [Female, living with parents, in Melbourne, graduated with a Master of Science in 2013] • I am not working in my field of study, however I am very happy with my job. I feel like the skills I learnt through that study and in a few years in a relevant field contributed to my success in my role now. [Female living in a share house in Melbourne graduated with Bachelor degree 2009] • I am happy where I am working. My degree gave me general skills that make me employable in many areas. However, I am not using the specific knowledge (ie scientific content) that I learnt in my degree [Female living alone in Canberra graduated with a Bachelor of Philosophy in 2010]

Quotes • My degrees helped me get my current job not so much by the content, but by teaching me more generic skills such as critical thinking, problem solving & constructing evidence-based arguments. My current job is quite generalist, so these skills were more useful than specific, specialist knowledge [Female living in a share house in Melbourne graduated with a Bachelor of Science/ Law 2012 and currently studying Masters in Public Policy] • While I did law, I didn't end up going down that path. I used the journalism part of my arts degree to become a political reporter and law certainly helped [female living alone in regional Tasmania with a Bachelor of Law/ Arts]

Quotes • I completed my degree at the end of 2011... I had some initial trouble securing a job because I was fussy about the sort of work I wanted to do. Eventually I accepted that I mightn't have the dream job straight away & would work towards it. Six years on, I've just started what I think is the ‘dream job' but all the experiences on the way got me here. [female living with parents in regional NSW, graduated with Master of Occupational Therapy] • I currently live in London and I am working in the field I studied in. Completing my Masters allowed me the opportunity to live and work abroad. [female living in a share house in Melbourne graduated with Masters in Speech Pathology]

Why employment matters • Having secure meaningful employment is more than having a secure income • The non-pecuniary benefits of employment include: having a regular routine; being socially connected; being engaged in civic activities; having social status [Jahoda 1988] • Precarious employment does not provide these benefits

21 st century Skills • Be able to transform and interpret information in new ways using new technology • Have social and emotional intelligence and interpersonal skills • Ability to work in teams and support co-workers • Demonstrate cross-cultural competency • Identify and solve problems • Ability to critically assess information and data • Be able to extend their knowledge independently

Careers • Rather than focus on particular careers and mastering specialised skills, young people may benefit from developing a general appreciation of learning new and unfamiliar skills. • As technology updates, skills need to be updated • Need to adapt to new technologies • Transfer skills to new employment opportunities

Summing up • Entering the labour market during a recession has lifelong consequences: lower levels of happiness even 40 years later • Pandemic recession may last for several years, depressing demand for workers • Precarious employment is an entrenched feature of the labour market • Skills need to be transferrable across occupations • Critical thinking; social emotional intelligence; team work

Thank you Dr Jenny Chesters Email: jenny.chesters@unimelb.edu.au

Acknowledgement This phase of the Life Patterns research program titled “Learning to make it work: education, work and wellbeing in young adulthood” is funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) from 2016 – 2020 (DP160101611).