Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Snake River Hatchery Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance and Population Composition William Young, NPT Deborah Milks, WDFW S. Rosenberger, IPC John Powel, PSMFC/IDFG Daniel Hasselman, CRITFC

HGMP Addendum: What we will have a good understanding of by 2017 • Adult hatchery and natural returns to Lower Granite Dam (LGR) • Adult hatchery and natural escapement above LGR • Percentage of the hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) • Run reconstruction, 2003 - 2016 • Parentage-based tagging (PBT), 2016 • Percentage of the natural-origin fish used in hatchery broodstock (pNOB) • Run reconstruction, 2007 - 2016 • Parentage-based tagging (PBT), 2016 • Age-at-return for hatchery- and natural-origin fish • Genetic diversity and effective population size

Adult Fall Chinook Abundance to Lower Granite Dam 60,000 Hatchery Natural 50,000 10-year geomeans 40,000 Draft Management Escapement Goal (39,110) 30,000 Hatchery-origin Adundance = 23,554 20,000 Natural-origin 10,000 Abundance ICTRT minimum viability = 3,000 = 8,786 0 New run reconstruction methods

Adult fall Chinook escapement above Lower Granite Dam 40000 Hatchery Natural 10-year geomeans Adult Escapment Above 30000 Lower Granite Dam Hatchery-origin Escapement 20000 = 18,534 (23,554) 10000 Natural-origin Escapement = 7,722 (8,786) 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Adult fall Chinook escapement and proportion of hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) above Lower Granite Dam 40000 1.0 Hatchery Proportion of Adult Hatchery-origin Natural 0.8 pHOS Adult Escapment Above 30000 Spawners (pHOS) Recent 10-year Lower Granite Dam average 0.6 pHOS = 0.70 20000 0.4 10000 0.2 0 0.0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Run Reconstruction and parentage-based-tagging (PBT) estimates of proportion of hatchery-origin spawners (pHOS) in 2016 PBT Run Reconstruction 0.900 0.849 0.850 0.831 pHOS 0.800 0.774 0.769 0.766 0.763 0.754 0.753 0.748 0.743 0.750 0.700 Females Males Jacks All Males All Fish <52 cm (male+jack) 1.0% Difference in Relative 0.0% pHOS -1.0% -2.0% -3.0%

Run Reconstruction estimates of proportion of natural- origin broodstock (pNOB) from 2007 - 2016 WDFW pNOB NPTH pNOB Total pNOB 0.45 # naturals in broodstock/total broodstock) 0.4 0.35 pNOB goal 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 Minimum pNOB 0.05 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spawn Year

Run Reconstruction and parentage-based-tagging (PBT) estimates of proportion of natural-origin broodstock (pNOB) PBT Run reconstruction 0.40 Proportion of Natural-origin 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 Brood Stock (pNOB) 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 NPTH LFH All 30.0% difference in pNOB Relative 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0%

Fall Chinook Age Composition Hatchery Natural 0.40 Ocean Age Proportion 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Oc Age 0 Oc Age 1 Oc Age 2 Oc Age 3 Oc Age 4 80.0% Age Composition Relative Ocean 40.0% Difference 0.0% -40.0% -80.0%

Natural and Hatchery Fall Chinook Age Composition Trends Hatchery, 2003 - 2016 0.5 Trends 0.4 Hatchery Natural 0.3 0.2 Ocean age 0 0.1 Ocean age 1 0 Ocean age 2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ocean age 3 Natural, 2003 - 2016 0.5 Ocean age 4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Snake River fall Chinook genetic diversity • Snake River fall Chinook were distinct (Utter et al. 1982; Marshall et al. 2011) • But, by how much (Kassler et al. 2004; Hecht et al. 2015) • Demonstrated high levels of genetic diversity (Marshall et al. 2011; Narum et al. 2007) • Consistently high Nb/N ratio (Waples, personal communication)

Snake River fall Chinook genetic diversity 2016 Return by PBT 1 . No genetic differentiation between 3. High Effective Population Size Snake River hatchery to natural Hatchery and Natural Effective Population Size (Ne) Fst = 0.0003 2000 1500 2. High levels of genetic diversity 1000 500 Sample Polymorphic 0 Size H o H e Loci Ne Lyons Ferry Lyons Ferry Broodstock Broodstock 1785 0.251 0.259 95.64% Nez Perce Broodstock Wild Origin Fish at LGR Nez Perce Broodstock 716 0.253 0.259 94.97% Wild Origin Fish at LGR 810 0.253 0.261 95.30%

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