Small steps forward How to change the dominant trends of the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Small steps forward How to change the dominant trends of the Hungarian energy sector to increase the share of RES in the energy mix? Balázs Felsmann Corvinus University of Budapest Head of the Research Centre of Strategic and International Management balazs.felsmann@uni-corvinus.hu EWEA Workshop Budapest, 01 October 2013.

Estimations for the future in the official Hungarian energy policies … 2008 New governments: new strategies Permanent elements: • significant increase on demand side • Relative low share of renewables Differences: • 2008 RES programme: subsidization sheme focused on electricity; • 2011RES focus on heating 2011 2

… and the current trends (data in Petajoul) 1250 BAU 1200 Joint effort Trendline 1150 1100 1050 Fact 1000 Green future 950 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 3

Limited focus on renewable electricity production until 2030 Renewables Nuclear • Preferred scenario: Coal Natural gas nucs+coal+RES in Import electricity production • Highest target on nucs. • Only 16-20% on RES basis of total electricity production in 2030. Renewables • 32% RES share (from District heating Others the current 12%) in Natural gas household heating. 4

The far future seems more ambitious … 5

Comparison of the current German facts with our 2030 plans Estimation of the renewable capacity of GER 2012 total capacity Hungary in 2030 compared the German facts (MW) in 2012 (MW) 12048 9000 Nuclear 62741 7661 Fossils 8000 RES (incl. hydro) 66967 7000 6000 4975 5000 HUN 2030 planned total 4000 capacity (MW) 2456 3000 2200 2200 2000 4000 Nuclear 1000 Fossils RES (incl. hydro) 0 Planned in NES Same ratio of GDP Same ratio of energy Same ratio of 5300 production population … are these real ambitions? 6

Potential ways of moving forward 1. Lobby for new tenders on the current subsidy scheme (FiT) • Low probability of success against of the price cutting policy 2. Implementation of new framework for RES (Market premium, quotas) • Same problems like in case of maintaining the FiT (low level support from government side) 3. Lobby for direct EU grants to subsidize the new RES investment • Possible? - questions of economic sustainability (cases of Spain, CZ, SK, RO) • Great competition of the different lobbies for the available funds • Transparency issues • Long term market disturbances 4. Focusing on small scale investments (household level, „island” operation) More achievable strategy for PV investments 7