Slides for Climate change discussion 22 nd May For Supper Club Gerald Oakham, Peter Black
Section A What is Global Warming
”Historical” global temperatures • Temperature record reconstructed by looking at, ice cores, fossil composition, tree ring growth etc. • Note smooth temperature variations over past 2000 years with sudden increase in past century Plot taken from Wikipedia, Global Temperature Record
Global temperatures since industrial revolution (Based on temperature measurements) Global Temperatures have risen 1 degree in the past 150 years. Note Global temperature is average of many readings From IPCC Figure 2.1 SR1.5 Chapter 1
Comparison of CO2 and temperature changes
Pr Projected te temperat ature rises for dif different t scenar nario ios No Note blue scenari rio re require res both re reduction Scenarios:- in in GHG GHG emis emissio ions an and Blue – optimistic action to reduce GHG Ca Carbon c capture. emissions Red – little action to reduce GHG emissions (GHG – Green House Gases) From IPCC AR5 report
Average projected temperature rises for Canada Blue optimistic Red - Pessimistic From Canada’s Changing Climate report (2019)
Average Canadian temperatures have increased 1.7 degrees between 1948 and 2016. Increase in the north is higher– 2.3 degrees! From Canada’s Changing Climate report (2019)
Pr Projected changes in in pr precipit ipitatio tion Large increase in the Arctic Moderate increase Northern Ontario Small increases in Ottawa From Canada’s Changing Climate report (2019)
Section B What and who is causing Global Warming
Canadian Green House Gas emissions Graphic from Rolly Montpellier www.Below2C.Org
Section C: What harm has Global warming already caused. What will be the impact of 2 C of global Warming
Accumulated Cyclone energy (ACE) For Atlantic basin The power of cyclones in a given year is higher in the past 20 years than the past 70.
Section D: Responses to Global Warming – mitigation – Government action
The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Any plan to keep warming below 1.5 degrees requires both Plot from IPCC 1.5 report GHG control and removing CO2 from the atmosphere
Canada's green house gas emissions (Gigatons) for selected years 800 700 600 Paris Target for Canada 500 IPCC 1.5 Target for Canada 400 300 Year GHC Notes Gigatons 200 1992 620 100 2005 730 2010 700 0 2015 720 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2030 524 Paris Target Year 2030 385 IPCC 1.5 Target
Canada’s Green House Gas emissions
Section E, F, G, H: Response to global warming – personal action
Section H: Response to global warming - adaptation
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