SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 3 APRIL 2014 2013 LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LUZON POWER SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 3 APRIL 2014

2013 LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND SITUATION Malampaya Turnaround (11 Summer 2013 Nov-10 Dec 2013) 2013 Max Avail Cap = 12,000 2013 Max Demand = 10,078 MW (23 Dec) 8,305 MW (08 May) ILIJAN A on biodiesel operation (11 Nov-05 Dec) ILIJAN B (08 Nov-11 DEc, SAN LORENZO 1 (01 Nov-05 Dec) 10,000 on maintenance; SAN LORENZO 2 on Forced Outage (28 May-09 Dec) 8,000 6,000 08 May 2013 Luzon Blackout 4,000 2013 Min Avail Cap = 6,110 MW (08 May) 2013 Min Demand = 4,800 MW (01 Jan) SUAL 1 on PMS (02 Aug-01 Sep) 2,000 PAGBILAO 1 and 2, SUAL 2 on PMS (14 Sep-21 Oct) GNPower 2 , MASINLOC PAGBILAO 2on PMS (31 Aug-26 1 on boiler tube leak Oct) 0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W22 W23 W24 W25 W26 W27 W28 W29 W30 W31 W32 W33 W34 W35 W36 W37 W38 W39 W40 W41 W42 W43 W44 W45 W46 W47 W48 W49 W50 W51 W52 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Oil-based 2013 System Demand Source: NGCP Daily Operations Report

POWER SUPPLY and DEMAND SITUATION SUMMER MONTHS 2014

10,000 12,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 1 January – 31 March 2014 LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND STUATION 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 500 0 0 1-Jan 1-Jan 3-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 5-Jan Jan Max Demand 7-Jan 7-Jan 7063 MW 9-Jan 9-Jan 11-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 17-Jan Reserve 19-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 27-Jan Regulating Reserve 29-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 31-Jan Actual Supply-Demand Actual Reserve Profile 2-Feb 2-Feb 4-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 6-Feb Capacity Feb Max Demand 8-Feb 8-Feb 7470 MW 10-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 12-Feb Contingency Reserve 14-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 18-Feb Demand 20-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 28-Feb Dispatchable Reserve 2-Mar 2-Mar 4-Mar 4-Mar 6-Mar 6-Mar 8-Mar 8-Mar 10-Mar 10-Mar 12-Mar 12-Mar GMCP U1. Malaya last 3.20.14 due to outage of "Yellow Alert" status declared 14-Mar 14-Mar 16-Mar 16-Mar U2 18-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar 20-Mar Mar Max Demand and 22-Mar 22-Mar 7706 MW 24-Mar 24-Mar tripping 26-Mar 26-Mar 28-Mar 28-Mar of 30-Mar 30-Mar

LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 1 April - 31 May 2014 Supply and Demand Assumptions:  NGCP FORECAST PEAK DEMAND 8,504 MW FOR APRIL AND 8,654 MW FOR MAY.  MAJOR PLANT/UNIT ON OUTAGE/DERATED: o BCF UNIT 1 EMERGENCY SHUTDOWN ON MARCH 24, 2014 DUE TO INSTRUMENT TRANSFORMER TROUBLE, WITH ESTIMATED TIME-IN ON APRIL 4, 2014. o MALAYA U1 ON FORCED OUTAGE DUE TO HIGH TURBINE VIBRATION ON MAR 21, 2014. INSPECTION OF UNIT IS ON-GOING o MASINLOC U2 ON FORCED OUTAGE DUE TO BOILER TUBE LEAK ON MARCH 25, 2014, WITH ESTIMATED TIME-IN APRIL 9, 2014. o GNPOWER U1 UNDER OBSERVATION OF TURBINE MASTER/GOVERNOR VALVE. CAPABILITY TODAY IS 260 MW, WHILE U2 IS GOOD FOR 302 MW. o EXTENDED FORCED OUTAGE OF STA RITA M40 (250 MW) UP TO JUNE 2014. o EXTENDED MAINTENANCE OF CALACA U2 (300 MW) UP TO APRIL 15, 2014. o STA RITA M10 ON MAINTENANCE OUTAGE, APR 5 - 9, 2014. o MAGAT HEPP NO IDR FROM APR 1 TO MAY 15, 2014. NO GENERATION.

LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 1 April - 31 May 2014 Max Demand Projected Capacity 8,654 MW 12000 Max: 9,652 MW Average: 9,115 MW 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1-Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May 3000 Geothermal Coal Combined Cycle/Nat Gas Hydro Diesel Thermal Symtem Peak Required Reserve Average Reserve Reserve Profile 2500 Apr 2014: 1,289 MW 2482 2402 May 2014: 1,251 MW 2331 2000 2092 2095 2044 2040 1982 1972 1857 1500 1604 1588 1591 1571 1548 1544 1507 1482 1400 1172 1000 1137 1070 1076 1054 1031 1024 1017 1021 1029 1025 1003 1007 991 997991984 987991 984 998 988 971 967 974 976981 955 962967 1066 973 1009 984 1002 980 993 988 971 988 1015 1015 500 0 1-Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May Gross Reserve/Deficiency (MW) Required Regulating Reserve Required Contingency Reserve Required Dispatchable Reserve

POWER SUPPLY and DEMAND OUTLOOK 2014-2020

LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 2014-2020 2014 2015 2016 Jul : 150 MW Southwest Luzon Coal U1 Mar : 18 MW IBEC Biomass Mar : 82 MW Anda Power 14000 Aug: 135 MW Puting Bato U1 100 MW Avion Dec: 200 MW EWC P3 87 MW Burgos Wind Jun: 18 MW Cj Global Biomass 13000 18 MW Northwind P3 Jul : 10.8 MW Green Biomass Sep: 67.5 MW Pililia Wind Nov: 135 MW Puting Bato U2 81 MW Caparispisan Wind Dec: 200 MW EWC P2 12000 Oct: 150 MW Southwest Luzon Coal U2 Nov: 20 MW SJCI Biomass Dec: 200 MW EWC P1 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Nov 2019 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Committed Available Capacity Peak Demand Required Reserve Notes a. Required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 4.2 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2014-2015. c. 4.8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2016-2020. d. Assumed 5.49 percent average forced outage of the total available capacity

LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 2014-2020 Projected Reserve 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Nov 2019 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 -500 -1000 Projected Reserve Regulating Reserve Contingency Reserve Dispatchable Reserve -1500 Notes a. Regulating Reserve: Refers to a Generating Unit that assists in Frequency Control by providing automatic Primary and/or Secondary Frequency response. Equals to 4 % of the peak demand b. Contingency Reserve: Generating Capacity that is intended to take care of the loss of the largest Synchronized Generating Unit or the power import from a single Grid interconnection, whichever is larger. c. Dispatchable Reserve : Kept in operable condition and available for service but not for immediate loading, also equal to the largest single unit operating in the system

COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS Luzon Grid Committed Power Projects, 1,724.65 MW Rated Project Cost Target Type Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Capacity (Php Billion) Commissioning (MW) Southwest Luzon 2 X 150 MW SLPGC Unit I – Jul 2014; Unit Power Generation DMCI Power Brgy. San Rafael, COAL Coal-Fired Power Plant 300 45.4 II – Oct 2014 Corporation (Project Corporation Calaca, Batangas Phase I Company) 135 MW Puting Bato South Luzon Thermal Trans Asia Oil and Brgy. Puting Bato COAL Coal Fired Power Plant Energy Corp. Energy Development West, Calaca, 135 12.9 August 2014 Phase I (SLTEC) Corporation (TAOil) Batangas Phase 1: EDC Burgos Wind Energy Development Nagsurot-Saoit, WIND Burgos Wind Power 87 12.8 August 2014 Power Corporation Corporation (EDC) Burgos, Ilocos Norte Project Phase 3: NorthWind Power NorthWind Power WIND Bangui Bay Wind Development Development Bangui, Ilocos Norte 18 1.5 August 2014 Power Project Corporation Corporation Phase 1: Alternergy Wind One Brgy. Halayhayin, WIND Pililla Wind Power Alternergy 67.5 7.7 September 2014 Corporation Pililla, Rizal Project Brgy. Caparispisan, Caparispisan Wind Northern Luzon UPC WIND UPC Asia Corporation Pagudpud, Ilocos 81 11.2 September 2014 Energy Project Asia Corporation Norte Prime Meridian PowerGen 100 MW San Gabriel First Gen Power Barangay Bolbok, NATGAS Corporation (Project 100 10.0 September 2014 Avion Project Corporation Batangas Company) First Gen Corporation 24 MW SJCiPower Rice Husk-Fired San Jose City I Power San Jose City I Power Brgy. Tulat, San Jose, November 2014 BIOMASS 20.00 1.2 Biomass power Plant Corporation Corporation Nueva Ecija (Subject to FIT) Project List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014