SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
2014 weather page: 2015, in the press: if December T stays “normal” then last 13 years all were among 2014 will be hottest ever records, 14 hottest ever recorded globally 2016 one of the hottest ever! consequence of global warming: 2017 CO 2 increasing even • uneven warming though emission stayed flat • more extreme weather Anomalous Polar Vortex -> extreme cold storms 2018 one of the hottest ever! 2019 one of the hottest ever! CO 2 Mauna Loa June 2020: 416.4 ppm June 2019: 413.9 ppm SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
this implies that we just passed the 1ºC increase compared to pre-industrial age (0.9 – (-0.2) = 1.1ºC) it also shows the dramatic increase in the rate of warming since 2010! source: wikipedia SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
CO2 Mauna Loa 1990: 360 ppm 1997: to stabilize CO 2 at 450 ppm this would have given emissions must fall to levels of 1990 by 2012 us a 1.5ºC increase by - needed 55% of producers to be ratified 2100 - 2004: ratified after Russia joined; in effect Feb 2005 … from pre-industrial - 2007: Australia joined leaving levels U.S. only industrial country not to join (has 5% of population but contributes with 25% CO2) it hurts our economy it hurts our economy as of 2012 climate change is green: agreed a hoax light green: developing world red: withdrawn orange: no intention to ratify grey: no position SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
IPCC and Al Gore receive IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel Nobel Peace Price 2007 on Climate Change http://www.climatecrisis.net 2000 scientists do research and give "for their efforts to build up and input to panel (incl. SIO!) disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that > 99% scientists agree that global are needed to counteract such change." warming is real PEW research center survey: 2006: 77% Americans agree 2007: Inconvenient Truth 2009: 57% Americans agree TIME magazine: 2014: 40% Americans strongly agree 57% globally 71% in India Birch Aquarium: award-winning ‘Feeling the Heat’ exhibit 2017 U.S. Tweet of the day: “climate change is a hoax, a real hoax, fake news” SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
invest in renewables 2009: Copenhagen Accord: � endorse continuation of Kyoto Protocol 2ºC is more than � global increase in T should be less than 2ºC Kyoto Protocol (compared to pre-industrial) � recognize CO 2 increase by deforestation issues involved: China surpassed USA as - 2010: Cancun; - cap-and-trade top emitter in 2009 - 2011: South Africa; - CO2 vs all GHG - 2012: Qatar - China’s grace period top 3 emitters 2017 - 2013: Warsaw - deforestation (greenhouse gases): - 2014: Lima China (29.3%) - 2015: Paris U.S. (13.8%) 2017: we - 2016: Marrakesh India (6.6%) will leave - 2017: Bonn/D “Paris” - 2018: Katowice Indonesia 3 rd by (deforestation) - 2019: Madrid* - 2020: ?? Indonesia: * originally planned in Brazil 85% through deforestation 15% rest SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
page will be updated 2015 Paris Agreement: continue Kyoto Protocol in some form as of Oct 2016: 193 parties signed; 110 ratified; went into effect Nov 4, 2016 For the very first time, U.S. is on board….. until 2017 BIGGEST ISSUES: we will not host � verification that countries fulfill reduction 2019 meeting � doesn’t go as far as the Kyoto Protocol � different countries have different commitments � new U.S. administration U.S. Tweet of the day: “gonna hurt our economy, hurt bad, real bad. We exit! We’re the greatest” “make American coal great again, real great! Coal is clean energy. Maybe even renewable?” newsclips: 11/08/17 Syria to join climate pact; U.S. only nation out 11/14/17 White House ridiculed at Bonn, Germany climate-change talks Birch Aquarium 2017: ‘Feeling the Heat’ gone SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
2018: greenhouse emission must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100% by 2050 Implications: electricity from coal (currently 40 %) must be reduced to 1-7 % renewable energy must increase (currently 20%) to 67 % we will not host 2019 meeting 2019: we will leave “Paris”; coal is clean SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
we had enough! SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: wikipedia
we had enough! SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: wikipedia
Greenhouse Gases � CO 2 , CH 4 , NxO, FCs increase � radiative forcing of CO 2 increases most! found 11/20/19 source: NOAA SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
1993 2000 “Arctic summer ice free soon” SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
“how do we know it’s us?” SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
-> CO 2 ; SO 2; mercury SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: IPCC 2014 SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: wikipedia/NASA SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: Keller and Blodgett “Natural Hazards” &World Watch Institute SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
U.S. government: “make American coal great again!” Reality: collapse despite heavy subsidies source: IPCC 2014 SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: IPCC 2014 SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
Science News Jun 2018 SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: IPCC 2014 2019 all this will happen much sooner! Models were too simple. - ice melts faster - sea level rises faster - Arctic changes faster SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
source: IPCC 2014 this is not going to happen any time soon ... but ... 1 m is to be expected SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
+1m (see homework) KIRIBATI Bangladesh Maldives all atolls!!!! New York Florida SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
sun earth IR UV vis CH 4 N 2 O O 2 /O 3 CO 2 H 2 O - 10ppm at 20-25km altitude SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
SIO15-SS1 20: Topic 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
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