Shan an A Agriculture an and Ru Rural E Economy S Survey: Selected H Highlights Ben Belton, Khin Zin Win, Aye Myintzu, Zin Wai Aung, Hnin Ei Win, Zaw Min Naing, Soe Thu Lin, Khaing Wah Soe, Sithu Kyaw, Eaindra Thein Thein Thu, Khun Moe Thun, Peixun Fang Presentation to LIFT Fund Board, Sedona Hotel, Yangon December 11, 2018
SHA HARE RES R S Ration onale • Generate overview of South Shan rural economy and agriculture, and nature of recent changes • Focus on maize and pigeon pea value chains – two major commercial crops produced for export • Developed hypotheses based on review of literature, ‘conventional wisdom’, and field observations and interviews during scoping • Special attention to arguments made in “ CP maize contract farming in Shan State, Myanmar ” (Woods, 2015) • Set out to test hypotheses empirically, using household survey • This presentation: Selected findings on Land, Off-farm employment, Migration, Mechanization, Maize & Pigeon Pea 2
LAND ND 3
Hi High l h level els o of a access t to a agricul ultural land nd 15% Landed Farm Households 8% Landless Farm Households Non-Farm Households 77% 85% of HH have access to land (60% in DZ; 20% in Delta)
Small landholdings • Average Land Owned by Landed 9% Farm Households Tercile 1 • All – 3.5 acres 24% Tercile 2 • T1 – 1.5 acres • T2 – 4.3 acres 67% Tercile 3 • T3 – 10 acres (Smaller on average but more evenly distributed than DZ & Delta) 5
The land frontier r has closed 2 100 Reasons of Stopped Shifting % of 7 90 23 Cultivation Households 80 Not possible to access more 41 70 forest land Share of HH (%) 60 Hard to reach area 21 50 91 40 77 Sedentary cultivation more 13 30 profitable/easier 20 Insufficient labor 12 10 Unable to control weeds 6 0 Parents' Household Current Household Prevented from doing by 4 authorities Never Practised Ever Practised Still Practising Share of HH in present and parents’ Insufficient rainfall to grow crops 2 generation practicing shifting cultivation 6
Limited l land t titling 60 49 50 25% Percentage 40 30 30 75% 20 14 10 3 2 0.5 0 Agri: Parcels with Land Document Form 7 Form 105 Contract Tax AIN Other Agri: Parcels without Land Documet Receipt Grant Most land tenure insecure (untitled land defined as ‘wasteland’); Cannot be used access formal credit (e.g. MADB) 7
Land titles o overwhelmingly in name o of male HH h HH head 3% 2% Male Household's Head/ Male Spouse 5% 11% Female Household's Head/ Female Spouse Couple Other Household Member 79% None of These 8
OFF- FARM 9
Off ff-farm employmen ent is impor ortant, i irres espec ective e of landho holding ng Land Ownership Type of Employment All Landless Tercile 1 Tercile 2 Tercile 3 76 95 80 74 59 Off-farm employment 75 - Casual Labor 61 66 63 43 - Non-Farm Enterprise 24 31 20 25 20 - Salaried Worker 7 17 6 3 4 - Natural Resource Extraction 5 8 6 4 3 HH engagement in off-farm employment, by landholding group (%) 10
Ge Gender ered ed employment c characteri ristics Men Women 8000 Men Women +13% 6,811 200,000 7000 180,965 180,000 6000 Wage (MMK/month) -34% 158,472 Wage (MMK/day) 157,188 160,000 5000 4,487 140,000 -13% -33% 3,949 120,000 4000 3,424 94,702 100,000 3000 80,000 2000 60,000 40,000 1000 20,000 0 0 Agricultural Non-agricultural Government Private casual labor casual labor Salaried employment Casual work Rates of workforce participation by gender similar, but different occupation types and rates of pay 11
Gender Ge ered ed d differ eren ences es in NF NFE E 30% men only women only mixed 70% Main person responsible 64% Mixed Men Women 25% 60% 54% Share of NFE 20% 50% 39% 38% 15% 40% 33% 28% 10% 30% 21% 16% 20% 5% 8% 10% 0% 0% tercile 1 tercile 2 tercile 3 Main person responsible for operating Main person responsible for operating NFE, by enterprise type NFE, by enterprise size 12
Agriculture and off-farm employment are main sources of startup capital for NFE Other No start-up 2% capital 14% Sale of assets Agriculture 2% 35% Migration 2% Informal loan 13% Off-farm employment 32% Sources of start-up capital for NFE 13
MIGRATION 14
Mod oderate e levels els of of migration; ; mix x of intern rnational and d domestic • 14% of HH have a migrant at present; 7% of individuals of working age are migrating (c.f. DZ 30% HH; Mon 49% HH) • Migrants are young: 84% aged 15-29 at time of migration • Roughly even gender split – Men 53%; Women 47% • More current international migrants than domestic (65:35), but domestic increasing rapidly • International: 88% Thailand • Domestic: 79% urban; 63% within Shan 15
Domestic migration growing faster than international 100.0 90.0 80.0 no. of people migrated 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year of 1st Time migration Started Year of migration internati Started Year of migration domestic Timing ng o of Migration: n: Numbe ber o r of P Peopl ple M Migrated by d by Y Year o r of F First M Migration n (by by De Destina nation) n) 16
Migration driven by mix x of push and pull factors Migration destination Main reason for migration International (%) Domestic (%) For higher income 33 28 Income low 20 17 Insufficient Land 31 10 Adventure/to gain new skill 9 9 Not willing to work agriculture 6 18 For professional work 0 17 Social pressure 1 3 • Average migration is short: 78% domestic & 49% international = 1 year or less • Most return migrants have no intention to migrate again (72%) 17
Oc Occu cupations b before, e, d during a and a after er m migration (intern ernational m migran ants) 18
Most migrants send r remittances, and remit significant a amounts Migrants remitting in Average value of past 12 months remittances Migrant type (%) ( MMK/month) All 58 66,791 Domestic 39 46,037 International 73 76,033 Male 58 61,544 Female 57 73,981 19
Mos ost rem emit ittances u s used sed to o cover er cos ost of of everyda day e expens nses 1 st reason (%) 2 nd reason (%) Day to day expenses 52 0 Farm operating costs 9 21 Medical expenses 7 17 Repayment of debt 7 1 Education costs 6 35 Housing 6 8 Child care 5 10 Savings 3 3 Purchase agricultural assets 5 4 Donations 2 1 20
Deci cision t to r return rn driven by n by push more t e than an p pull f fact ctors International Domestic Reason of return (%) (%) Prospect of job at home 18 33 Poor working conditions 16 17 Loss of work/no job opportunity 10 16 Poor health 16 6 To take care of family members 18 7 Achieved goal (saving/new skill) 4 10 Marriage/pregnancy 7 5 No legal status 5 3 Others 7 4 21
MECHANIZATION 22
Machines h have rapidly replaced draft animals, irres espec ective e of farm s size machine draft animal 95 82 79 Tercile 1 <2.5 acre Tercile 2 >2.5 to 6 acre Tercile 3 >6 acre Percentage 22 18 17 tercile 1 tercile 2 tercile 3 Share of farm HH using machinery or draft animals 23 in maize and pigeon pea production, by landholding tercile
Land p prepar aration a and m maize t threshing h highly mech chanized ed, l little change in ot other a activities (e.g. h harvesting ng, s sowing) 100 89% machine only 76% 80 draft only Percentage machine + draft 60 51% 40 20 13% 11% 10% 3% 1% - Land Planting Threshing Threshing preparation Maize Pigeon pea Share of farm HH using machinery and draft animal 24 for maize and pigeon pea production, by activity
Rental m markets ts faci cilitate machine acce ccess HH using rented machine HH using own machine 100 % of HH using machine 80 60 40 20 - 2007 2012 2017 2007 2012 2017 2007 2012 2017 2 WT 4 WT Machinery in land preparation in land preparation in threshing Share of farming HH using own / rented machines 25 in land preparation and threshing
AGRICULTURE 26
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Adoption o of hyb ybrid m maize g growing r rapidly, associ ciated with th i incr creased u use of e of fer ertiliz ilizer i inputs 120 First planted maize 100 First used compound No. Respondents 80 60 40 20 0 1975 1978 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 31
Ther ere e is no o contract farm rming of m maize "Have you ever had a contract with CP company to grow maize?" 1% Yes No 99% 32
The market f for m r maize seed is diverse a and competi titi tive CP 808 15 21 43% CP 888 7 CP (other var.) Golden Tiger 029 Other hybrids 40% 18 18 Syngenta 621 Local OPV 4 16 33
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