Summit Summit Theme: Theme: Africa: The Emerging Frontier Africa: The Emerging Frontier for Global Investments in Grain Trade. for Global Investments in Grain Trade. Specific Theme : : Opportunities for innovation and Specific Theme Opportunities for innovation and technology adoption to address constraints and technology adoption to address constraints and increase agricultural increase agricultural investments in Africa. investments in Africa. Seyfu Ketema Ph D Seyfu Ketema Ph D 5 th th African Grain Trade Summit, 1st to 3rd October 2013, Sarova African Grain Trade Summit, 1st to 3rd October 2013, Sarova Whitesands Beach Resort & Spa, Mombasa, Kenya. Ph D Whitesands Beach Resort & Spa, Mombasa, Kenya. Ph D
Importance of Agriculture Importance of Agriculture The constant need to provide adequate food and The constant need to provide adequate food and nutrition to the growing global population makes nutrition to the growing global population makes agriculture among the strategic and most important agriculture among the strategic and most important economic activity of all the nations of the world economic activity of all the nations of the world The provision of adequate food and nutrition to their The provision of adequate food and nutrition to their population through various strategies (Food Security, population through various strategies (Food Security, Food Self Sufficiency, Food Sovereignty) remains Food Self Sufficiency, Food Sovereignty) remains among the top strategy and priority agenda of all among the top strategy and priority agenda of all governments in both developed and developing governments in both developed and developing countries. countries. Agricultural trade in general and grain trade Agricultural trade in general and grain trade specifically plays major role in the agricultural and specifically plays major role in the agricultural and overall economy of Africa overall economy of Africa
Importance of Agriculture Cont’d Importance of Agriculture Cont’d The advances in sciences and technology has contributed The advances in sciences and technology has contributed tremendously to the modernization and transformation of tremendously to the modernization and transformation of agriculture and therefore to the increase in land, labor, agriculture and therefore to the increase in land, labor, water productivity and generally to the increase in water productivity and generally to the increase in agricultural production, productivity and economic agricultural production, productivity and economic growth at the global level growth at the global level Thus the advances made in science and technology Thus the advances made in science and technology create the opportunities for innovation and technology create the opportunities for innovation and technology adoption to address constraints and increase adoption to address constraints and increase agricultural agricultural investments in Africa investments in Africa
Importance of Agriculture Cont’d Importance of Agriculture Cont’d Despite the impressive modernization and Despite the impressive modernization and transformation of agriculture in the developed countries transformation of agriculture in the developed countries and the moderate modernization of agriculture in some and the moderate modernization of agriculture in some developing countries, providing the global population developing countries, providing the global population with adequate food and nutrition, has remained as a with adequate food and nutrition, has remained as a major challenge. major challenge. Taking stock of the agricultural resource base, existing Taking stock of the agricultural resource base, existing knowledge base, the proven agricultural modernization knowledge base, the proven agricultural modernization and transformation experiences around the globe; one and transformation experiences around the globe; one cannot justify the fact that there still exists hunger, cannot justify the fact that there still exists hunger, malnutrition and poverty around the globe. malnutrition and poverty around the globe.
Challenges
Challenges Today, three quarters of the world’s poorest people Today, three quarters of the world’s poorest people get their food and income by farming small plots of get their food and income by farming small plots of land land With the global population set to increase by a billion With the global population set to increase by a billion people between now and 2030, it is estimated that the people between now and 2030, it is estimated that the world will need to increase food production by at world will need to increase food production by at least a third to keep up with demand and changing least a third to keep up with demand and changing dietary preferences dietary preferences
Dry areas = water scarcity, limited and vulnerable natural resources, climatic variability, and a diverse and complex mix of pastoral, agro-pastoral, mixed rainfed and irrigated production systems requiring an integrated agro-ecosystems and livelihoods approach to research for development
Food Food d producti d producti uction uction on growth on growth th is th is is lo is lo lower lower tha tha han han n po n po popu popu pula pula lati lati tion tion on gr on gr grow grow owth owth th th 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Growth rate % 1.0 0.0 Seychelles Swaziland Tanzania Burundi Rwanda Djibouti Egypt Kenya Malawi Mauritius Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe DRC Ethiopia Libya Zambia Comoros Eritrea Madagascar -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 % Food production growth (2000-2005)* Population growth%**
Climate change and its adverse Climate change and its adverse effect is a challenge effect is a challenge 9
Dissapearing snow on Mt Kilimanjaro – May 2010 10 10
Drought in Dodoma region Drought in Dodoma region - 2008 2008 * Poor Animal Health Poor Animal Health *Tree Felling Tree Felling 11 11
Droughts in dry lands
Desertification Desertification A key challenge in the new A key challenge in the new millennium millennium
Loss of Biodiversity Loss of Biodiversity
Soil Soil Physical erosion Physical erosion Chemical degradation Chemical degradation Biological degradation Biological degradation
Water Water Quantity Quantity Quality Quality Productivity Productivity
Urbanization and Out-Migration U rbanisation in developing countries will accelerate over the next 30 years 4.5 4 3.5 projected 3 billion people 2.5 2 1.5 projected 1 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rural Urban Urban population will outpace rural Source: FAO.2002. World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030 Summary Report
Food Insecurity and Poverty Cereals imports of developing regions 1970-2030 Historical Development Projections 240 East Asia South Asia 190 million tonnes Near East/North Africa Latin America 140 S.S.Africa 90 40 -10 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 Source: FAO, 2002 World Agriculture: towards 2015/30, http://www.fao.org/es/ESD/gstudies.htm
Protests on high food prices Protests on high food prices • Urban Urban poor particularly poor particularly hit hit hard, but hard, but farmers farmers are net food buyers are net food buyers
Challenges to African agriculture and food Challenges to African agriculture and food security security Less water: increased demand from other sectors Less water: increased demand from other sectors Less arable land: land degradation and urbanization Less arable land: land degradation and urbanization Less labor: HIV/AIDS and endemic diseases Less labor: HIV/AIDS and endemic diseases A changing climate: increasing variability and more extreme A changing climate: increasing variability and more extreme events is projected to: events is projected to: reduce productivity reduce productivity affect ecological systems affect ecological systems adversely affect human and animal health, and adversely affect human and animal health, and decrease biodiversity decrease biodiversity Increasing concerns over the environmental and social Increasing concerns over the environmental and social implications of various agricultural policies and technologies implications of various agricultural policies and technologies
Science & Technology Challenges to African Science & Technology Challenges to African Agricultural Research Agricultural Research Address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved Address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc Produce, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, Produce, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, forests, biomass (for energy) in an environmentally and forests, biomass (for energy) in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner socially sustainable manner Address soil fertility and salinzation of soils Address soil fertility and salinzation of soils
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