Identify factors responsible for the 1. slowdown of food grain production in Bhutan since 1990. 2. Explore possible means to accelerate the growth rate of food grain production growth rate of food grain production SANJEEV MEHTA ������������� 774.5 ������� 800 ������� ������� ������� ���������� �������� ������������ 700 ������ ������������ �������������� ������������� ������ ��� ���������� ����������� 600 ������������� ������������� ������������� �������� ������������� ������������� 500 ����������� 400 234 300 ���� ������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� 200 Agricultural 100 100 ������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� GDP 100 ����� �� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� 0 Overall GDP 1981 2009 ������� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����
share in Share in Growth rate Growth rate paddy maize ����� !"#$�"$ "$�%% $%%%�%" Dzongkhags of Paddy Maize production production (in %) (in %) (in %) (in %) ����� ��� ���� ���� 19.7 0.02 Bumthang ����� ���� ��� ���� 1.0 2.8 19.6 2.4 Chukha Dagana Dagana 1.3 1.3 5.5 5.5 -5.5 -5.5 11.7 11.7 ���������� 11.0 0.2 Gasa ����� ����� ����� -7.8 0.3 10.2 0.2 Haa ������ 18.5 2.6 4.5 4.3 Lhuntse 1.9 2.8 13.7 11.3 Monggar ������ ��� ����� ��� Paro 13.1 9.0 59.3 0.0 &���� '(% �'() �!(* Pemagatshel -7.3 0.3 18.7 2.6 13.5 12.7 24.6 0.3 Punakha share in Share in All Growth rate Growth rate Paddy Maize paddy maize crops Dzongkhags of Paddy Maize production production (in %) (in %) 1.46 4.88 -0.24 1982-92 Area (in %) (in %) S/J 23.8 2.5 -3.3 9.5 0.99 1.56 19.22 Yield Samtse Samtse -1.2 -1.2 12.2 12.2 -1.1 -1.1 16.9 16.9 1992-00 Area Area 2.70 2.70 0.61 0.61 4.17 4.17 Sarpang -15.7 18.0 -7.2 9.2 Thimphu -11.7 3.6 -26.0 0.0 Yield -6.20 -6.07 -3.70 T/gang 20.0 2.3 42.3 2.2 Area -0.13 2.41 -0.95 T/Yangtse -15.8 7.2 -23.0 15.3 00-09 -1.10 -2.80 -1.63 Yield Trongsa 7.9 2.7 15.6 1.7 Tsirang 11.1 4.6 -1.4 7.6 Wangdue 3.6 9.0 23.8 0.2 Zhemgang 3.2 1.8 4.2 4.6
,���������� ,���������� ����������� ������ ����������� ������ �+������� ������� �+������� ������� �%%%-.&� ���/0�������� �%%%-.&� ���/0�������� �%%%-�������� �%%%-�������� 1�2����� $# $) ")) ������� #-3!# !$-"#! !-3$* ������ !-)3$ !-3#! "%$ ������ ������ '-"4) '-"4) '-!4' '-!4' )") )") 6/7 *-!)' *-%$* "4* ���� !44 !") !-!#3 6�2��� )-3*) 4-$44 #'% 0�� ") "$ "*3 6������ 3-!%# *-!3) #!* 5������ $-$!4 '-$#) !-*#' &��2��� 43% !-%3* !-4$! .������ !-*$% !-4*" !-!4! &��������� $-!"# '-!$* !-*$$ ���� *-4#4 "-%$) !-"$4 &/8������ !-*)) !-434 !-!$! ��2�������� !$3 "4 )4# ,���������� Paddy : 1172 kg ����������� ������ �+������� ������� �%%%-.&� ���/0�������� �%%%-�������� Maize: 1123 kg &������ $-!'3 $-!)4 !-%!" Impact: if these gaps are bridged, Impact: if these gaps are bridged, &������ 3-4*% *-$33 )3* maize output would grow by 96% and 9������ 3-*') 3-#') !-%)* paddy by 73%. :��2���� !-$4) !-!!) ##$ ;������� 3#-4%" 43-)4' !-!$$
25 7 22.5 6 6 20 18.3 18 5 15 14.4 4.4 4 4 10 10 9.5 9.5 3.6 3.6 6.9 3 3 5 2 1.9 0 1.4 1 1981-86 1987-92 1992-97 1998-02 2002-07 2008-13 0 1986 1990 1994 2001 2006 2009 ����� � ������ ���0��� ������� ����� /����������0�� %�����" ����� ������� �� ������ � ���� %�����"����� ����� ���������� ����� � ����� � ����� ���� ���� � ����� ����� 1 1 2���� 2���� 1��� 1��� � � ���� ���� �������� � ������� �� ����� $%�������& ����� �� � ����� ���� ����� ���� �� � (�*��"� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� �� !����"����#�$%�������&'�()���"�'�(�*��"� *��+�(�������,����*��#����-�.�� ()���"� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���
1) The external economies, that are created by The model suggests that public the public investment and that tend to investment (pvtgdcf) and the private make the private investment more effective, investment (pvtgdcf) tends to stimulate are at present not substantial. the the growth growth rate rate of of the the agriculture, agriculture, 2) 2) The declining share of the agriculture in The declining share of the agriculture in though the impact of the private public investment has constrained the rural investment is not large enough. infrastructure in general and agricultural infrastructure in particular. Also, the ability of the farmers to benefit more from private investment is determined by size of land holdings. 3) The low impact of private investment on agriculture growth suggests that the share of agriculture in private investment is probably declining due to limits imposed by probably declining due to limits imposed by the profitability of such investment. 4) There is, apparently, a vicious cycle operating that prevents faster growth of the agriculture due to low levels of private investment and unless the private investment itself becomes more profitable it will remain lower.
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