M EXICO ’ S E NERGY R EFORM : A N OCEAN OF O PPORTUNITIES César Hernández Ochoa Undersecretary of Electricity September 23rd, 2016
E STIMATED I MPACT OF THE R EFORMS T ABLE 2. I MPACT OF THE REFORM ON THE LEVEL OF GDP IN THE MEDIUM TERM OECD ESTIMATES OF THE REFORMS THAT HAVE BEEN LEGISLATED AND THOSE EXPECTED 1 E FFECT AFTER 5 YEARS , ASSUMING THAT IMPLEMENTATION IS IMMEDIATE . 1. It is likely that the tax and education reforms will have significant effects on growth (the latter especially long-term), but these have not been included in the table because of the difficulty in quantifying these effects. Source: Bourles et al . (2010); Bassanini et al . (2009); Dougherty and Escobar (2014); Thévenon et al . (2012); IMF-OECD-World Bank (2014); Dougherty (2014). 2
P REVIOUS M ODEL TWO S TATE O WNED E NTERPRISES DOING EVERYTHING F INDING AND P RODUCING S UPPLY H YDROCARBONS E LECTRICITY T RANSPORTING I NFRASTRUCTURE S ALES & T RADING R EFINING R ETAIL C LEAN E NERGIES SELF REGULATED A LL RISK AND INVESTMENT WAS CARRIED OUT BY THE S TATE 3
O LD M ODEL C ONSEQUENCES O IL PRODUCTION DECLINE 275 3.38 3.02 P RODUCTION 2.5 M ILLIONS OF BOEPD 113 102 I NVESTMENT B ILLIONS OF PESOS 26 31 MME P RICE 16 USD/B 2004 2012 1997 L ACK OF O PERATIONAL C APACITY 4
N EW ERA W E NEED INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TO REACH NEW RESOURCES D EEP W ATER S HALES C HICONTEPEC M ATURE F IELDS 76% of prospective Mature fields’ remaining oil equals 3 times the entire resources are in unconventional and prospective resources deepwater reservoirs 5
A VERAGE PRICE OF E LECTRICITY R EAL P RICE I N 2012, AVERAGE POWER RATES WERE 25% +73% GREATER THAN THE AVERAGE IN THE USA W ITHOUT SUBSIDIES , SUCH GAP WAS 73% +149% +135% +69% +84% HIGH PUBLIC COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL SERVICES WITHOUT CONSUMPTION SUBSIDIES E.E.U.U. MEXICO 6
THE MEXICAN REFORM 7
M AIN O BJECTIVES OF THE E NERGY R EFORM O IL & G AS E LECTRICITY ▪ A TTRACT NEW CAPITAL ▪ C REATE A NEW AND STATE OF THE ART WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY TECHNOLOGY . MARKET . ▪ A CCESS DEEPWATER ▪ E QUAL CONDITIONS FOR AND NON - PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CONVENTIONAL COMPANIES . RESERVOIRS . ▪ W ITH A WIDE RANGE OF ▪ I NCREASE NATURAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS . GAS AND OIL SUPPLY . ▪ P ROMOTE C LEAN E NERGIES UNDER COMPETITION . 8
N EW ENERGY MODEL O PEN M ARKETS FOR THE ENTIRE V ALUE C HAIN E XPLORING AND P RODUCING S UPPLY H IDROCARBONS E LECTRICITY T RANSPORTING I NFRASTRUCTURE S ALES & T RADING R EFINING R ETAIL C LEAN E NERGIES REGULATED BY THE S TATE S TRENGTHEN ENERGY SECURITY E NHANCE PRODUCTIVITY T ECHNOLOGICAL L EAP S TRENGTHEN ENERGY MARKETS N EW INVESTMENTS 9
L EGAL F RAMEWORK AND I NSTITUTIONAL A RRANGEMENT CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLES 3 WERE MODIFIED 21 S ECONDARY LAWS ISSUED 25 R EGULATIONS PUBLISHED I NSTITUTIONS WERE CREATED : 4 ASEA, CENACE, CENAGAS AND FMP R EGULATORY AGENCIES WERE 2 STRENGTHENED : CRE AND CNH S TATE ENTERPRISES WERE TRANSFORMED 2 INTO S TATE PRODUCTIVE ENTERPRISES : PEMEX AND CFE 10
ADVANCES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MEXICAN REFORM 11
R OUND Z ERO FOR P EMEX 5 TH 21% 83% 90 P LACE FOR 1P P ROSPECTIVE 2P THOUSAND KM 2 RESERVES R ESERVES RESOURCES 12
R OUND O NE . T HREE HYDROCARBONS TENDERS COMPLETED 30 C ONTRACTS S IGNED 1st Shallow Water exploration 37 7 BILLION USD OF N EW COMPANIES FROM 7 COUNTRIES . INVESTMENT 26 ARE MEXICAN 60% OF INCOME TO THE S TATE 68% AWARDED (30 OF 44 BLOCKS ) 2nd Shallow Water extraction 3rd Onshore Extraction 13
O NGOING HYDROCARBONS TENDERS : R OUND O NE - 4 TH TENDER 10 CONTRACTS IN DEEP WATER AND ULTRA - DEEP WATER R 1.4 FIELDS 10 C ONTRACTUAL 26 A REAS 24 THOUSAND KM 2 REGISTERED COMPANIES P ROSPECTIVE R ESOURCES : 10 THOUSAND 889 MMBOE 1. A TLANTIC R IM (A NADARKO ) 2. C HEVRON 3. E XXON M OBIL 4. H ESS M ÉXICO 5. M URPHY S UR 6. N OBLE Submission of proposals and allocation: D ECEMBER 5 TH 14
O NGOING HYDROCARBONS TENDERS : F IRST P EMEX F ARM - OUT –T RION F IELD – 1 ST C OMPANIES MUST BE PART OF A CONSORTIUM . P EMEX SHALL FARMO UT HAVE A PARTICIPATION OF 45% S URFACE : 1,285 KM 2 10 W ATER DEPTH : 2,500 M REGISTERED COMPANIES 3P RESERVES : 485 MMBOE Stment: I NVESTMENT : 11 BILLION USD 1. A TLANTIC R IM (A NADARKO ) 2. C HEVRON 3. E XXON M OBIL Submission of proposals and allocation: D ECEMBER 5 TH 15
H YDROCARBONS TENDERS UNDERWAY : R OUND T WO - 1 ST TENDER 15 CONTRACTS OF SHARED PRODUCTION . E XPLORATION AND R 2.1 EXTRACTION IN SHALLOW WATERS I NDUSTRY N OMINATIONS A VERAGE BLOCKS SIZE : 594 KM 2 P ROSPECTIVE RESOURCES : 1,587 MMBOE B ASINS : S OUTHEAST , T AMPICO -M ISANTLA AND V ERACRUZ Submission of proposals and allocation: M ARCH , 2017 16
H YDROCARBONS TENDERS UNDERWAY : R OUND T WO - 2 ND TENDER 12 C ONTRACTS OF LICENSE FOR EXPLORATION AND R 2.2 E XTRACTION IN ONSHORE FIELDS A VERAGE BLOCKS SIZE : 422 KM 2 P ROSPECTIVE RESOURCES : 643 MMBOE 9 BLOCKS IN BURGOS BASIN AND 3 IN SOUTHEAST BASIN Submission of proposals and allocation: A PRIL , 2017 17
S EISM EXPLORATION ✓ U PDATED DATA TO IDENTIFY NEW EXPLORATION 2.5 OPPORTUNITIES ✓ V ALUABLE INFORMATION FOR DECISION - MAKING AND B ILLION INVESTMENT PLANS USD ✓ C OMMERCIALIZATION OF INFORMATION ✓ E CONOMIC BENEFIT AND GROWTH 36 P ERMITS GRANTED TO 15 COMPANIES 3.2 TIMES A LL 3D SEISMIC ACQUIRED IN M EXICO ’ S HISTORY E NERGY R EFORM HAS ALLOWED PRIVATE COMPANIES TO ACQUIRE 3D SEISMIC DATA IN THE G ULF OF M EXICO , ONE OF THE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST RESEARCH WORLDWIDE 18
E XPANSION OF THE G AS P IPELINE N ETWORK Operational Gas Pipelines to 2012 Los Algodones I y II Mexicali Operational Gas Pipelines to 2016 In development Pipelines Nogales Naco Agua PrietaCd. Juárez / El Hueco “Sásabe-Pto. Libertad” Pipelines Projects Sásabe San Isidro Sásabe LNG Regasification Centers “Tarahumara” San Isidro “San Isidro-Samalayuca” Samalayuca Petrochemical Facilities Ojinaga “Samalayuca-Sásabe” Pto. Libertad Acuña Gas Processing Centers Ojinaga Gas Interconection before 2012 Piedras Negras “Ojinaga-El Encino” Gas Interconection after 2012 “El Encino-Topolobampo” El Encino Guaymas “Pto. Libertad-Guaymas” “El Encino-Laguna” Colombia “Guaymas-EL Oro” Cd. Mier Reynosa / Argüelles 78% OF El Oro “NET Mexico” Río Bravo Escobedo PROGRESS La Laguna Topolobampo Camargo Matamoros Los Ramones “El Oro-Mazatlán” “La Laguna- Ags.” Durango “Matamoros-Tuxpan” Mazatlán “Los Ramones” Zacatecas Altamira “Zacatecas” S.L.P. Naranjos Cancún “Villa de Reyes-Ags-Guadalajara” Ags. V. Reyes Mérida “Tamazunchale-El Sauz” Tamazunchale Guadalajara Tuxpan “Villa de Reyes-Tula” Apaseo el Alto Tula “Tuxpan-Tula” Pedro Escobedo Nativitas T O 2019: “Morelos” Huexca 10 THOUSAND KM OF Cd. Pemex Lázaro Cárdenas Jáltipan NEW GAS PIPELINES Nvo. Pemex “Ampliación Mayakán” Acapulco 16 BILLION USD OF Salina Cruz INVESTMENT Tapachula 19
E XPANSION OF THE O IL P RODUCTS N ETWORK Oil Refineries Storage and Distribution Centers (TAR) to 2012 Storage and Distribution Centers (TAR) to 2016 Pipelines to 2012 Pipelines to 2016 Railway Infrastructure for Petroleum Products Maritime Terminals Terrestrial Imports Maritime Imports “Topolobampo-Culiacán” “Minatitlán-Villa Hermosa” “Pajaritos-Salina Cruz” TAR Pto. Chiapas
B UILDING OF INFRASTRUCTURE OF S TORAGE AND TRANSPORT OF OIL PRODUCTS R ELEVANT PROJECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY : S TORAGE TERMINALS AND MULTIPURPOSE PIPELINES FOR IMPORT OF 1 LIQUID FUELS FROM T EXAS , TO L AREDO , N UEVO L AREDO AND M ONTERREY . O PEN SEASON HAS BEEN CONCLUDED . T RANSPORT AND STORAGE INFRASTRUCTURE OF OIL PRODUCTS 2 FROM T UXPAN TO T ULA . S UPPLY LOGISTICS BY RAIL BETWEEN H OUSTON AND G REENSPORT , 3 T EXAS AND M EXICO C ITY . S TORAGE TERMINALS IN M EXICO C ITY , S AN L UIS P OTOSÍ , T ULA AND 4 N UEVO L EÓN . N EW RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE LATTER ONE . 21
E LECTRICITY MARKETS WORLD MAP • W ITH THE E NERGY R EFORM M EXICO INTRODUCED A WHOLESALE MARKET WITH RETAIL COMPETITION . • M EXICAN INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IS MOVING TOWARDS THE OECD STANDARD . 22
N EW I NDUSTRY S TRUCTURE : INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN MARKETS AND PPP S S YSTEM C ONTROL AND R ETAILING G ENERATION C ONSUMPTION P OWER M ARKET S HORT T ERM U NREGULATED T RANSACTIONS S UPPLY Q UALIFIED U SERS S UBSIDIARY “A” S POT M ARKET S UBSIDIARY “B” B ASIC S ERVICE U SERS S UBSIDIARY “C” P RIVATE R EGULATED L ONG T ERM P ARTIES A UCTIONS S UPPLY C ONTRACTS AND PPP AND PPP C ONTRACT C ONTRACT S S Distribution Transmission 23
W HOLESALE E LECTRICITY M ARKET S POT M ARKET : S HORT TERM TRANSACTIONS . I MMEDIATE DELIVERY . C URRENTLY PARTICIPATING : ▪ CFE- N ATIONAL POWER COMPANY G RUPO F ÉNIX ▪ 582 F ISTERRA ▪ A VERAGE S UMEX ▪ D AILY ▪ 200 OFFERS OF PERMIT HOLDERS CENACE: O FFERS REPRESENTED BY CFE I NDEPENDENT ▪ 10 COMPANIES ABOUT TO JOIN S YSTEM O PERATOR FOR THE ENTIRE L ONG T ERM M ARKET GRID E LECTRICITY T ENDERS . L ONG TERM PURCHASE AGREEMENTS . O N P ROGRRESS : 1 ST TENDER CONCLUDED (2015) 2 ND TENDER ONGOING (2016) B ENEFFITS : ✓ C OMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT ✓ T RANSPARENCY AND RULE OF LAW ✓ N O SELLING BARRIERS FOR GENERATORS ✓ Q UALIFIED CONSUMERS HAVE MORE BUYING OPTIONS 24
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