FIRST SYMPOSIUM OF ACECC TC21 Nov. 18, 2016 Davao City - Philippines International Comparison of Scientific Knowledge- Based Decision-Making Schemes for Disaster Reduction Presentation on Seismic Risk Assessment in a Developing Country A Case Study of Pakistan Prepared By Dr. Sarosh H. Lodi Dean, Faculty of Civil Engineering & Architecture, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi Presented By Engr. Sohail Bashir Vice-Chairman, The Institution of Engineers Pakistan
TECTONIC PLATE SETTING AROUND PAKISTAN
Active Fault Map of Middle East Region
Seismic Zoning Map of Pakistan
Major Earthquakes Date Epicentre, region Magnitude Max intensity 1668 Samawani, Sindh 7.6 VIII to IX 1819 Allahbund, Sindh 7.2 IX to X 1852 Kahan, Balochistan 8 IX 1868 Peshawar, KPK 6 VII to VIII 1889 Jhalawan, Balochistan 8 VIII 1892 Qilla Abdullah, Balochistan 6.8 VIII to IX 1905 Kangra, North ~8 VII 1909 Sibi, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1929 Sibi, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1931 Sharigh Valley, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1931 Muchh, Balochistan 7.4 VII 1935 Quetta, Balochistan 7.5 VIII 1945 Pasni, Makran 8.3 VII to VIII 2001 Bhuj, Gujarat 7.6 VII 2005 Kashmir and Hazara 7.6 X 2008 Ziarat, Balochistan 6.4 VII 2011 Dalbandin, Balochistan 7.2 IV to V 2013 Mashkel, Balochistan 7.8 IX to X 2013 Awaran, Balochistan 7.7 IX
National Disaster Risk Management System
Background • National Calamities (Relief and Prevention) Act 1958 • Relief Commissioner ate System • Revenue Department • Reactive Approach • Relief After Kashmir Earthquake 2005 • Shift from Reactive to Disaster Risk Management Approach • DRM Approach includes: – Prevention – Mitigation – Preparedness – Response
PART I Acts, Ordinance, President’s Orders and Regulations GOVERNMENT OF PAKI STAN MI NI STRY OF LAW JUSTI CE AND HUMAN RI GHTS I slamabad, the 21st December 2006 No. 2(1)/ 2006-Pub.(B). – The following Ordinance promulgated by the President is hereby published for general information:- ORDI NANCE NO. XL OF 2006 AN ORDI NANCE to provide for the establishment of a National Disaster Management System for Pakistan
National Disaster Management System for Pakistan
Overview of Pakistani Built Environment
Journey through Pakistan (Karachi to Bahawalpur)
Journey through Pakistan (Bahawalpur to Islamabad)
Journey through Pakistan (Islamabad to Haripur)
Journey through Pakistan (Northern Kashmir)
Journey through Pakistan (Muzaffarabad to Lahore)
Journey through Pakistan (Lahore to RYK)
Journey through Pakistan (RYK to Karachi)
Journey through Pakistan (Thar)
Journey through Pakistan (Khipro)
Journey through Pakistan (Sanghar and Umerkot)
Journey through Pakistan (Ketibunder)
Journey through Pakistan (Nagar Parker)
Journey through Pakistan (Karachi)
Journey through Pakistan (Karachi)
Journey through Pakistan (Muzaffarabad)
Journey through Pakistan (Muzaffarabad)
Journey through Pakistan (Muzaffarabad)
Journey through Pakistan (Gwadar)
Journey through Pakistan (Gwadar)
Journey through Pakistan (Jiwani)
Journey through Pakistan (Haider Goth and Gunz)
Journey through Pakistan (Skardu)
Journey through Pakistan (Shangrila and Bunji)
Built Environment Planning
Reinforced Concrete (RC1)
Stone Masonry (M1)
Adobe Masonry (M2)
Wood/ Bamboo Reinforced Buildings (M7)
Concrete Block Masonry (M8)
Other Masonry (OO)
Brick Masonry Buildings (M5)
Building statistics Total number of buildings as per 1998 building census = 15,818,279 Estimated number of buildings for 2005 = 18,994,185 Estimated number of buildings for 2014 = 23,850,563 Approximately 8 persons per building
RISK ESTIMATION SUMMARY 475 YEARS 2475 YEARS DAMAGE DAMAGE MODERATE MODERATE BEYOND BEYOND DAMAGE DAMAGE COUNTRY REPAIR REPAIR (D3) (D3) (D4+D5) (D4+D5) (%) (%) (%) (%) TURKEY 1.3 – 4.1 4.5 – 9 6 – 13.5 11 – 14 CYPRUS 5 – 12 12 – 19 16 – 31 21 – 24 IRAN 6 – 18 13 – 19 23 – 42 21 – 23 JORDAN 0.2 – 1.4 2 – 7 3 – 11 11 – 22 LEBANON 1.7 – 6.2 8 – 15 11 – 24 20 – 25 ARMENIA 5 – 19 18 – 34 22.5 - 50.5 36 – 40 GEORGIA 0.7 – 3.2 4 – 12 4.5 – 14 14 – 26 PAKISTAN 24 – 27 12 – 27 39 – 55 23 – 25
International Cooperation for Acquisition & Sharing of Data
Location GPS to measure preliminary geodetic constraints on plate boundary deformation on the western edge of the Indian plate by Tri-University Network. Tri universities include NED University, University of Baluchistan and University of Peshawar International collaboration include University of Colorado, Boulder and University of Montana.
GPS locations – NED University
Velocity Contours at Makran
Velocity vectors
CITY OF KARACHI
SATELLITE IMAGE OF KARACHI
Administrative Division of Karachi
Land use in Karachi
Katchi Abbadies Built up Areas
Building Types Proportions
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment PGA map for ground motions for 75 years return period
Complete 0.2% No 4% Slight 11% Moderate Extensive 28% 57% Damage distribution of buildings in Karachi
Total (in percentage) Town No Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Baldia 5.1% 14.3% 28.5% 51.8% 0.3% Bin Qasim 3.8% 9.1% 37.7% 49.4% 0.1% Clifton Cant 1.2% 4.3% 31.8% 62.7% 0.0% GADAP 3.8% 10.1% 24.9% 61.0% 0.2% Gulberg 2.5% 7.5% 23.3% 66.6% 0.2% Gulshan-e-Iqbal 2.5% 8.0% 25.8% 63.6% 0.1% Jamshed 3.7% 11.2% 30.6% 54.3% 0.2% Karachi Cant 6.3% 17.2% 30.7% 45.2% 0.5% Kaemari 5.3% 14.1% 28.0% 52.2% 0.3% Korangi 2.4% 7.9% 32.0% 57.7% 0.1% Landhi 5.2% 14.4% 31.8% 48.3% 0.3% Liaquatabad 4.7% 14.0% 31.3% 49.7% 0.3% Lyari 1.8% 7.5% 32.3% 58.3% 0.0% Malir 3.1% 8.6% 22.1% 66.0% 0.2% New Karachi 1.6% 5.8% 24.2% 68.3% 0.1% North Nazimabad 3.3% 9.3% 22.7% 64.5% 0.2% Orangi 6.5% 16.6% 25.3% 51.2% 0.4% SITE 6.4% 17.3% 29.8% 46.1% 0.4% Saddar 4.5% 14.5% 34.8% 45.9% 0.4% Shah Faisal 2.4% 8.4% 30.6% 58.6% 0.1% Karachi 3.7% 10.7% 28.3% 57.0% 0.2%
Building Bye Laws in Pakistan
KBCA BUILDING AND DHA REGULATIONS- KPT HYDERABAD PLANNING CC FC TOWN 2007 ACI CODE SEMINAR ???
Why Poor Built Environment?
1. Bid Procurement Procedure • Many administrative districts invite sealed bids for the construction of schools, hospitals, and other public works. • The objective is to avoid inflated price estimates. • The selection of the low ‐ bid may be a recipe for the implementation of shoddy construction, or the use of poor quality materials.
2. Building codes are universally enforced in nations where they have been adopted • In developing nations alike earthquake resistant design codes are adopted at a national level • But weakly enforced at a local level, due to the absence of technical capacity, will to implement, lack of enforcement mechanism.
3. Pressure on housing due to large population and less space leads to rampant corruption In urban centres, especially, there is always an acute shortage of housing either due to lack of space or huge migration from rural areas for better prospects. This puts more and more pressure on housing needs thus giving rise to slumps and unauthorised construction. Especially, private developers in connivance with local building officials built structures which are unsafe. There is a common practice to built apartments which differ from approved drawings.
4. Migration to developed countries • A majority of the trained man ‐ power migrates to the developed countries for better prospects • Thus leaving creating a vacuum which is filled by less trained or improperly trained people who are completely unaware of implication of building codes etc.
5. Socio – economic Condition of Homeowners Very often a homeowner or a group of homeowners will team up to build one or more dwellings for their families. They buy the land (sometimes), and stockpile the materials, buying minimum quantities and inferior qualities. Construction occurs with no technical guidance. Such structures may incorporate fatal omissions.
5. Corruption has eroded governance • In most of the developing countries corruption is rampant at all levels which at times erode governance completely • Officials and politicians, both, circumvent laws to make money • Construction is a gold mine for them thus leading to poor quality construction, violation of building codes
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