SCARCITY AND INEFFICIENCY IN FOOD SYSTEMS
What is Phosphorus? Etymology: from Ancient Greek meaning “light bearer” Origin of the term: phosphorescence
The Evolution of Phosphorus
Why is Phosphorus Important? ● essential for life ○ macronutrient ○ vital role in every plant process involving energy transfer ● Its functions cannot be fulfilled by any other nutrient
Why is Phosphorus Important? ■ component of phospholipids that make up the cell membrane ■ component of DNA, RNA, and ATP ■ essential for formation of new cells
Phosphorus Soil Cycle
Phosphorus Deficiency Required for normal growth and development ● Reduction in leaf expansion and surface area ● Reduced shoot growth ● Dark green leaves
Phosphorus as Fertilizer ● Discovered to be useful fertilizer in the 19th century ● Phosphorus is mined from phosphate rock deposits ● 90% of phosphate mined today goes into fertilizers ○ the rest goes into soft drinks, steel electroplating, toothpaste, detergents, etc.
Historical Global Sources of Phosphorus
The Phosphorus Mineral Fertilizer Cycle
World Phosphate Rock Reserves
The 5 Dimensions of Phosphorus Scarcity
1. Physical Scarcity Scarcity caused by dwindling phosphate rock reserves ● Reserves are estimated to last the next 100- 300 years ● Peak phosphorus is estimated to be reached around the year 2030
Peak Phosphorus Curve
2. Management Scarcity Improper management of phosphorus, resulting in substantial system inefficiencies that limit the ability of available phosphorus to meet demand Phosphorus losses in every step of production
Eutrophication
3. Economic Scarcity Lack of access to phosphorus, due to constraints in financial capacity or constraints in labor and time capacity to source phosphorus. ● Farmer purchasing power ● Investment lag
Prices of Phosphate Rock
2008 Price Spike A short-term 800% price increase occurred because of: ● increased agricultural demand ● tight supplies of phosphate rock This spike led to increased concern about phosphorus resources
4. Institutional Scarcity Scarcity resulting from a lack of appropriate and effective institutional and political structures ● Policies ● Governing bodies ● Feedback Loop
5. Geopolitical Scarcity Access to phosphorus resources is restricted due to political or geopolitical circumstances such as monopolies controlled by governments or corporations.
% 0 9 l o r t n o c s e i r t n u o c s ’ d l r o ! w s u e r h o t h f p o s o h p g n i n i a m e r World Phosphate Rock Reserves
The (Ph)uture of Phosphorus
Phosphorus Security Minimize Maximize losses in use recovery and reuse
Minimizing 1. Reduce phosphorus losses in arable land ● Stop overuse of phosphorus fertilizer: minimise mineral phosphorus use and optimise land use ● Avoid phosphorus losses from cropland soils ○ avoid erosion by improving soil management ○ improve soil quality
Minimizing 2. Reduce phosphorus losses in livestock systems ● Maximize use of phosphorus in manure for soil fertility in croplands and pastures ● Adjust livestock and human diets 3. Reduce phosphorus use ● phosphorus-efficient crops
Maximizing Recover phosphorus lost in: ● Livestock manures ○ Poultry manure contains ~13kg/ton ● human excreta ○ 3 million tons of phosphorus cycles through human bodies annually ● other organic wastes ○ composts, crop residues, etc.
The “NoMix” Toilet
“We may be able to substitute nuclear power for coal, and plastics for wood, and yeast for meat, and friendliness for isolation—but for phosphorus there is neither substitute nor replacement.” -Isaac Asimov, 1974
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