Food Systems
Contents • DFID Food Systems Learning Journey • Foresight4Food Initiative • South Asia Food Systems / Food Energy Water Nexus • Farmers and Food Systems – OSF • IFSTAL • Principles for Responsible Investment -WBG • EU Food Systems Interest • EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue
Inclusive Governance Food and Growth Food security and of food Nutrition stability, migration, systems security transparency Healthy Ag impact on Diet biodiversity and soils Paying for Food Demand on education fisheries, healthy diets Climate resilient Ag is key to ag, reducing empowerment agifood Systems emissions Reducing water Food waste use in ag, Water use, reducing Sustainably on farm solar Infrastructur pollution feeding cities Inclusive e and Large Growth innovation employe key to ag r
DFID • Purchased food, urbanization and nutrtion • Food systems in areas of protracted crises • Realising the inclusive economic value of agri-food systems • Impact of food crisis on most vulnerable • Impact of climate and resource decline on food systems
Foresight4Food Foresgiht4food.net
Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …
… and who all operate influenced a range of ‘Environments’ that drive actor motives. Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
Or just to attempt to integrate everything!
Systemic Risks Health Security Migration Low productivity Reduced Violence Health costs investment Poverty Unemployment Disease Weakened FOOD Poor diet Gender economy inequality Competition for Trade restrictions resources Price spikes Food shortages Lower yields Erratic production levels Degraded / overused resources Disease outbreaks Climate impacts Environment
Mega Trends • Population • Urbanization • Diet • Climate • Resource decline 18 29 16 30 37 25 60 54 45
Rapid urbanization & rising middle class… Projected urban share of global population Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%) 80 60 40 Urban Urban 67% 20 54% 0 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe 2014 2050 Central and South America Asia Pacific Source: UN 2014 Source: OECD 2010 • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia and Africa • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents Source: Ruel et al. 2017
What we should be eating What we are actually producing (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) (According to 2011 FAO) Milk and Milk Products 4% Milk & Milk Products Fruits & Vegetables 8% Meat, fish, eggs, beans Sugar 49% 11% 16% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 20% Oils & Fats Fruits & 11% Vegetables 11% G VE OIL V V O E I G Oils & Fats L 3% Cereals and Starches 20% Cereals and Starches Limit 47% WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015
Very very obese Very obese Obese Overweight Normal Low normal Underweight Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health Trends in age-standardised through diets prevalence of BMI categories in women, global The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)
Bajzelj et al (2013)
Supply chain logistics 14% cereals trade 60% US grain export 26% cereals trade ~20% fertilisers 11% cereals trade 14% cereals trade ~25% fertilisers (50% China’s soy and wheat)
Global markets affect local events
Framework for Understanding Foresight and Scenario Analysis Knowledge Base to Actors - their Values and Interests (2) Inform Analysis and Dialogue (5) eg Purpose and Motivation for Foresight (3) Participatory Methods and tools (6) Stakeholder Engagement(4) Stakeholder analysis Understanding the System of Analysis (7) Systems analysis Real World Empirical Evidence Situation (1) Trends & Drivers in the System (8) Data Sets Quantitative Modelling Visions (10) Scenarios (9) Qualitative analysis and insight from actors Game Theory (how actors may respond) Influencing Change (11) Note: Numbers are for textual description of the framework and are not a series of Woodhill 2018 steps. The elements of foresight may be implemented concurrently and/or iteratively
Rubics Cube of Food Systems Transformation
South Asia Food energy water nexus
Farmers and Food Systems Project • 12 month project funded by Open Society Foundation • Updated perspective on long term future for small-scale agriculture in global food system • What are the systemic risks? • What are the transformational opportunities? • Case studies in Zambia and Ghana • Exploring foresight, scenario and systems methodology with OSF partners • Providing analysis for OSF on future programming
Taking a System View How will population, urbanization and diet Consumption change Food Market Systems Who will produce? Global Regional What will be traded? Policy Influences & National Drivers Natural Resources & Local Trends Climate Change Issues Opportunities Smallholder How will business Production value Large Scale farming adding and Marketing models change? Systems What is a living income? Rural Livelihoods What are non-farm Living income incomes?
Transformation of Small-Scale Agriculture Getting the Policy Mix Right Living income Policies to support small-scale Stepping Up farmers to be commercial and competitive Policies to help farmers trade-up or move out Hanging-In Social protection to help those in poverty Policies to create decent jobs and provide skills Moving-out Social protection to help those in poverty What scale of change over what period makes sense ?
Principles for Responsible INvestment
Implementation Pathways Institutional Embedding 1) Promotion by Business and Multi-stakeholder 5) Embedding in Know How Incentives Platforms and 4) Embedding in Government Policy, 6) Embedding in Round Tables Public and Private Regulation, Standards for Private Standards for Programmes and and Public Financing Sourcing and Trade Funding 2) Advocacy by Civil Society and Consumer Groups Know How Incentives 3) Support by Application in Business Operations Development and Multi- Know How Incentives Lateral agencies 9) Integration into 8) Integration into 7) Integration into Business Operations Coordinated Supply Business Operations of Regional and Chain and Sector Mobilizing Understanding, of Global Firms Domestic Firms / Initiatives Commitment and Capacity SMEs / Producers
Conditions and Processes for Implementation Principles Stakeholder Engagement Capability Governance Embedding Incentives • Global transparency and for Policy in Policies, • Profitability accountability Development Standards, and • Access to finance • International commitments And for Technical Processes • Reputational and agreements Implementation • Reliability of supply • Stakeholder consultation • Competitive • Regional collaboration • Legal • National decision making Use in Decision Making and Operations • Private sector processes Monitoring Use and Impacts
EU Food systems
EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue
What we should be eating What we are actually producing (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) (According to 2011 FAO) Milk and Milk Products 4% Milk & Milk Products Fruits & Vegetables 8% Meat, fish, eggs, beans Sugar 49% 11% 16% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 20% Oils & Fats Fruits & 11% Vegetables 11% G VE OIL V V O E I G Oils & Fats L 3% Cereals and Starches 20% Cereals and Starches Limit 47% WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015
Rapid urbanization & rising middle class… Projected urban share of global population Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%) 80 60 40 Urban Urban 67% 20 54% 0 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe 2014 2050 Central and South America Asia Pacific Source: UN 2014 Source: OECD 2010 • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia and Africa • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents Source: Ruel et al. 2017
Very very obese Very obese Obese Overweight Normal Low normal Underweight Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health Trends in age-standardised through diets prevalence of BMI categories in women, global The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)
Bajzelj et al (2013)
Supply chain logistics 14% cereals trade 60% US grain export 26% cereals trade ~20% fertilisers 11% cereals trade 14% cereals trade ~25% fertilisers (50% China’s soy and wheat)
Global markets affect local events
Emerging Issues • Food safety • Health costs • Antimicrobial resistance • Disease and pest outbreaks • Food Crises
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