S1 Submission on Renewables Bryan Leyland MSc, FIPENZ, FIEE, FIMechE Consulting Engineer www.bryanleyland.co.nz Most of my professional life has been involved in renewable electricity generation I have: - been responsible for many of the small hydro schemes in NZ since 1970 - involved in most of the large hydro schemes in NZ - worked on biofuels, tidal power, windpower - familiar with wave, tidal stream, and solar power schemes - provided expert evidence on the economics of windpower projects in New Zealand I am operator and part owner of a 920 kW small hydro scheme in Golden Bay I see no need for special policies to promote renewables - apart from fixing the RMA!
S2 The characteristics of windpower • Unpredictable • the output fluctuates rapidly on a relatively short timescale • it cannot be predicted more than a few hours ahead • calm periods sometimes exist all over New Zealand • no more than 5-10% can be relied on to be available over winter peak demand periods • the timing cannot be predicted accurately • The capacity factor is low - 35 to 40% in New Zealand, 20-30% overseas • Windpower is at a maximum in the springtime and a minimum during the autumn and early winter peak demand periods
S3 High demand and not much wind Wind
S3 High demand and not much wind Not much wind power Price spike at peak demand Wind
S4 Wind can’t give us a reliable and economic supply Power from a 184 MW windfarm in 2008 Measured every 30 minutes The current cost of windpower is $3100/kW and >12c/kWh The current cost of geothermal is $4500/kW and ~9c/kWh Jan May August Dec
Manorburn pumped storage scheme • 1000 - 1500 MW • 400% increase in existing hydro storage • Storage and backup for dry years and~1500 MW of wind • Cost $2-$3 billion • Uneconomic under present market
Nuclear/windpower comparison • Notional 5000 MW isolated system • Cost of supply from nuclear power plus conventional pumped storage • Nuclear power is a baseline that is viable anywhere in the world • In New Zealand, geothermal, coal, gas or hydro would probably be cheaper • Cost of supply from windpower plus long- term pumped storage
Nuclear Plus Pumped Storage 8.6c
Windpower + pumped storage 14.7c
S5 Cost of Windfarms
S6 80 % of the time the output was below 130 MW (70%)
S7 Output from 184 MW NI Windpower Low output in critical dry period
S8 Tidal stream power • SeaGen prototype weighs 1000 tonnes. • Delivered full power (1200 kW) in December 08 but does not seem to have completed three months reliable operation • Seems to be further ahead than anyone else
S9 Kaipara Tidal Stream Power
S10 Pelamis - Sea snake • Deployed in Portugal last year and now abandoned for “financial and technical reasons” • Originally developed by Prof Normal Bellamy at Coventry University in the 1980s. He abandoned it in favour of “Sea Clam” - a much
S11 Olmedilla Solar Voltaic Farm • 60 MW for $530 million = $8800/ kW • ~85 GWh pa • ~60/c/kWh • Loses 60% output on a cloudy day and 100% every night • Subsidy = 560% of wholesale price for 20+ years! • A lot of glass to clean!
S12 Kalpasar Project, India This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!
S12 Kalpasar Project, India This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!
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