RISK ASSESSMENT OF PEDESTRIAN AND CYCLIST suggest increased no. of - PDF document

Falling in winter conditions – How big is the problem? • We actually don’t know • Official statistics in Germany: • High level of underreporting of single bicycle accidents • Pedestrian falls are not recorded • Data from insurers RISK ASSESSMENT OF PEDESTRIAN AND CYCLIST suggest increased no. of falls in winter FALLS IN SNOWY AND ICY CONDITIONS • How good is winter maintenance currently? • How high is the risk of falling on snow/ice? • Should we spend more money to improve? Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 2 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Method Data sources of pedestrian and cyclist falls Multi data approach Data of pedestrian and cyclist falls Hospital study Insurance reports Self reported falls Hospital Insurance Self study reports reported Data source Below (2016) German Social Accident Own retrospective Insurance (DGUV) surveys (field & online) Area Catchment Areas of Germany Germany 23 hospitals in Falls west-germany Period May 2012 – Apr 2013 Jan 2008 – Dec 2015 Last 5 years Days with snow or ice 17 % 14 % 11 % Type of data Severe single bicycle Pedestrian falls on the All falls of pedestrians & accidents trip to school or work cyclists Number of falls 1,850 537 9,943 (5,603 respondents) Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 3 Martin Bärwolff 4 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Method Exposure data: weather Definition of days with snow or ice Data of pedestrian and cyclist falls Exposure data Data from German Hospital Insurance Self Meteorological Meteorological Service (DWD) study reports reported Service y Freshly fallen Days with Falls snow > 0 snow or ice y n Old snow > 0 y n Min. daily temp. < 0 y n Precipitation > 0 n Day without snow and/or ice Day with snow and/or ice Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions 5 6 Martin Bärwolff Martin Bärwolff ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019

Exposure data: weather Method Days with snow or ice in different cities Days with snow or ice over the years Data of pedestrian and cyclist falls Exposure data Hospital Insurance Self Meteorological Automatic Own countings Household study reports reported Service bicycle counters and surveys travel surveys Days with Change in traffic volumes Falls snow or ice on days with snow or ice Source: German Meteorological Service (DWD) Source: German Meteorological Service (DWD) Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 7 Martin Bärwolff 8 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Exposure data: traffic volumes Exposure data: traffic volumes Change of bicycle volumes on days with snow or ice (automatic counters) Trip data from the household travel survey SrV – “Mobilty in cities” at TU Dresden: Trips per day Average trip distance Rostock Münster Berlin Düsseldorf Dresden Cologne Punkt vs. Komma Kirchheim (Teck) Freiburg Munich N = Counter days Source: Munciplalities Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 9 Martin Bärwolff 10 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Exposure data: traffic volumes Method Change of traffic volume on days with snow/ice – comparison of data sources Data of pedestrian and cyclist falls Exposure data Automatic Own countings Household Hospital Insurance Self Meteorological bicycle counters and surveys travel surveys study reports reported Service Assumptions for changes of traffic volume: Days with Change in traffic volumes Falls snow or ice on days with snow or ice Pedestrians: + 10 % Risk assessment - 50 % Cyclists: Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions 11 12 Martin Bärwolff Martin Bärwolff ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019

Method Results: number of falls Example calculation Risk of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions (compared to other weather) Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 13 Martin Bärwolff 14 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Results: number and severity of falls Results: number and severity of falls Single bicycle accidents vs. Single bicycle accidents vs. Structure of the severity of falls (own surveys) bicycle accidents involving others bicycle accidents involving others Source: Source: Hospital study Hospital study (Below 2016) (Below 2016) Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Martin Bärwolff 15 Martin Bärwolff 16 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 Lessons learnt Pedestrian volumes fairly stable in snowy/icy conditions • Bicycle volumes dropped by half • Reduction in bicycle volumes could be halved through improved winter maintenance • Risk for pedestrian and cyclist falls substantially increases in snowy/icy conditions • Thank you for your attention! Increase in risk higher for pedestrians and higher in icy conditions • Questions? Consequences less severe compared to other weather conditions • Reduction in severity does not compensate for increase of fall frequency • Improved winter service could lead to savings in social health costs and an increase of bicycle volumes Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions Risk assessment of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions 17 18 Martin Bärwolff Martin Bärwolff ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019 ICTCT Conference 2019 // 24 October 2019