Risk and Volatility 1. Worth listening to -Cassandras of the Crash. Radio 4, Wednesday 19 th September by Ann Pettifor our speaker of last year 2. Consider the economies of Venezuela – Turkey – Indonesia 3. It is about Confidence / Contagion 4. Inequality rising. The haves, have yachts and the rest. 5. Population stops growing. World growth goes in reverse? Borrowing shrinks? 6. Corbyn for Prime minister and Trump Impeached – does it matter? 7. Train timetables poorly planned like BREXIT – no proper timetable 8. No wiser. Better informed KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Agenda and welcome: 11.30am Intro 11.35am Talk - Patrick McIntosh 12.00pm Talk – Julian Jessop – Economists not reading it right, ignoring the warning signs – but not Julian 12.30pm Talk – Dick Stroud – discuss demographics, older population filling the talent gap – why not? Employment trends and zero hour contracts, Labour party ideas. 13.00pm Q&A with the Panel – Nick Matthews and Andy Heath from KMG, Dick Stroud and Julian Jessop 13.30pm Lunch Thinking Universal Basic Income. Einstein definition of madness! KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
What does KMG look after? Assets under influence today : £1,111,085,876 Date Assets under management Jul-16 £275,135,806 KMG has existed now for 70 years Jan-17 £307,094,872 -1948 to 2018 Jul-17 £324,402,536 Nearing £400 million of assets Jan-18 £357,557,204 managed on platforms Jul-18 £369,045,708 KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Performance 1 year KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Performance since 2011 KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Performance since 2011 • Performance is why all clients are with KMG • Average return continues to be 8% net of charges per annum for the medium portfolio • Traded through; tech bubble, credit crisis, berlin wall and crash of 75/76 • We think about the future first • Look at efficiency and technology and human behaviour KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Our Investment Team Andy Heath Lisa Jones Raj Hallen Fund Fund Fund Manager Analyst Manager Nick Matthews Jenna Duffett Patrick McIntosh Lucy D’Souza KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Demographics and Birth Rate KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Demographics and Birth Rate KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Demographics and Birth Rate Italy debt to GDP. 150%. 33% paid for pension. UK debt to GDP 90%. 22% paid for pension. 30% of UK live beyond their means. Next bubble to burst? Politicians and journalists just don’t get it. They speculate on all other disasters but not money. Until it happens. Climate change drives everything? True or false it changes all our lives. Health, Diet, Bacteria. Terminal destruction if we do not take charge of our own health. Migration – needed, accepted. Just not near me. Houses – will people still want own homes in the next generation or stuff – life of simplicity? Taxation changes. Assets not income. Wealth tax expected. Desirability bias – seize on hope Confirmation bias – never expected but happens Impossible deniability KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Budget Surplus US manufacturing output rising. German manufacturing output falling. Russian sanctions makes them self improve and become stronger. Sanctions tariff barriers Is there another agenda? Trump/Putin/Xi Ping BREXIT KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Technology Block chains. Bit coin – down £20k to £6k Crypto currency Post quantum encryption Git hub Open source networks Social media. Fact? Fiction? Reinforces doesn’t change. US electorate either take Trump literally not seriously or seriously not literally. Impossible deniability KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Performance - Mastermind KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Performance - Mastermind USA debt – £21 trillion Italy debt – £3 trillion Fed resist interest rate rises. Same mistakes won’t work twice Too many hold US debt or IOU When is the crisis in confidence arriving? • Printing debt or lancing the boil. • Interest rates or QE or nothing more • KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Economics and Behaviour Source IEA KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Yield Curve Why are yields on long term debt so low? KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Taxation Tax will be on assets not income Source IEA KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Turbulence and Politics EU leaders are changing 2019. Post March 2019. Agreed by EU Ratified by parliament Technology will take away the problems long before any agreement is settled. KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
What risk should you be taking? Coke purchased costa 3.9bn – looking to the future opportunities Emerging Markets. Not all the same. China grown up. Many resilient. Debt – demographics – surplus. Imbalance. Birth rate - technology KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Summary: • Rethink risk • Check cash reserves KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Question and Answer Session Panel Dick Stroud Julian Jessop - IEA Nick Matthews – KMG Andrew Heath – KMG KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Cycling the Globe! Cycling the globe starts April 2019. Patrick to cycle from Twickenham to Sapporo Japan. Promoting education of health The KMG team will continue to be on hand as KMG is very much about the team and not one person. KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
Thank you for coming Please join us for lunch! KMG Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales No. 5207735
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