Responsible Finance after Brexit: Recent developments and upcoming - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Responsible Finance after Brexit: Recent developments and upcoming challenges Marta Costas, Senior Consultant, Political Monitoring – Financial Services July 2016 www.dodsinformation.com

Challenges of long term policy making  Business climate/SMEs  Financial services  Personal lending / access to credit  Social investment www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Challenges of long term policy making  Business climate/SMEs  Access to capital /FDI  Access to finance / R&D tax breaks  Access to talent / migration  Exports (goods but primarily services)  Financial services  Personal lending / access to credit  Social investment www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Challenges of long term policy making  Business climate/SMEs  Financial services  Euro trading (LSE/DB merger)  Passporting rights (HSBC/Santander warnings)  Access to talent / cost of visas  Political Sentiment (distributed economy)  Personal lending / access to credit  Social investment www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Challenges of long term policy making  Business climate/SMEs  Financial services  Personal lending / access to credit  Tightening of credit (anecdotal evidence)  Consumer confidence (H1 data is +ve but IMF/OECD warnings Q3)  Little room for manoeuvre – real wages down since recession  Social investment www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Challenges of long term policy making  Business climate/SMEs  Financial services  Personal lending / access to credit  Social investment  Lose access to ESF and ERDF (anecdotal evidence of discrimination)  Talent and service exports for social enterprises  Could fall in the list of priorities  Large contingent of vulnerable startup/scaleup biz www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Strategic objectives / opportunities  Business climate / SME • Better deal for biz, with exceptions for SMEs? ( Leadsom’s view) • Corporation tax rates (Osborne’s proposal) • Norway Model (Liam Fox/May disagreement on single market) • London visa? (Rohan Silva) • Access to finance inquiry (BIS select Cttee)  Financial services  Personal Lending  Social investment www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com , UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring

Strategic objectives / opportunities  Business climate / SME  Financial services  Balanced economy – role for challenger banks?  MPC stimuli in August – what effect on real economy?  Europe likely to adopt a tough line – FR, EI, DE to benefit  Personal Lending  Social investment , UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Strategic objectives / opportunities  Business climate / SME  Financial services  Personal Lending  Demand-driven: Biz voice to avoid self-fulfilling prophecy  Wait for October for data on consumer confidence post-Brexit  Negative int. rates a possibility – BoE is shifting its position  Social investment , UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Strategic objectives / opportunities  Business climate / SME  Financial services  Personal Lending  Social investment  Could be a winner in the process – benefit from fall of vanity projects  Must act with one voice – Javid and Osborne roundtables w/biz  Widespread misunderstanding in Parliament – or in business  P2P lending a key weakness – uncertainty even pre-Brexit www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com , UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring

Key actors  T. May – keeps chair seat on 3 key cabinet committees  Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer  Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy  No Small Biz Minister yet  The three Brexiteers:  Liam Fox, Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade  David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union  Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Office  In EU: Michael Barnier, Chief Negotiator EU www.dodsinformation.com www.dodsinformation.com

Devolution  Northern Ireland • Questions around border and customs with single market • Opportunities to lower corporation tax  Wales • ERDF most at risk • Welsh Bill underway – devolve collection of VAT and income tax  Scotland • Second referendum position weaker than expected • Spanish objection to EU membership access  London • Khan pushes for Scottish-style devolution • Greater planning and tax collection powers • Access to talent and single market www.dodsinformation.com

Key dates  4 August - Monetary Policy Committee Meeting interest rate decision  August - market study on competition in investment and corporate banking (Expected: Summer)  8 September – Chancellor appears before Lords Economic Affairs Cttee  16 September - European leaders - extraordinary meeting; future of post- Brexit EU discussed  Autumn – resolution of access to finance inquiry  Regular meetings of BoE, ECB, ECOFIN, Eurogroup www.dodsinformation.com

How to engage  Political Monitoring  People Data  Politics Home and Central Lobby  Polling and Research  Training  Risk Analysis  NEW – Brexit Reports  Publications  Events www.dodsinformation.com

Questions or comments Marta Costas Senior Political Consultant, Financial Services t: 020 7593 5691 e: marta.costas@dods.co.uk t: @dodsmonitoring a: 21 Dartmouth Street | Westminster | London | SW1H 9BP w: Dods | Dods Monitoring | Dods People | PoliticsHome | Dods Research