Residential PV Market Characterization Greater San Diego Region - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Residential PV Market Characterization Greater San Diego Region June 25, 2013 www.energycenter.org

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Emerging Renewables Program (ERP) ≤30kW Go Solar California (SB1) - California Solar Initiative (CSI) - New Solar Homes Partnership - Municipal Utility Program Self Generation Incentive Program >30kW www.energycenter.org 3

Residential PV in Residential PV in CSI Residential Survey SDG&E Territory territory SD County Projects Respondents 0 2,000 2,354 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 11,064 12,000 14,000 14,922 16,000 16,241 *Installations as of 3/31/13 16,656 18,000 www.energycenter.org 4

16,000 14,000 Cumulative Installed Systems (#) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 ERP CSI Other www.energycenter.org 5

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www.energycenter.org Using Local Moran's I (Spatial Statistics) 7

www.energycenter.org Using Local Moran's I (Spatial Statistics) 8

250 3,500 250 3,000 200 200 2,500 Completed Projects Active Contractors Active Contractors R² = 0.9735 150 150 2,000 1,500 100 100 1,000 50 50 500 0 - 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Complete Projects Active Contractors Completed Projects www.energycenter.org 9

160 140 120 Contractors (#) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Large (Greater than 100/yr) Medium (50 - 100/yr) Small (Up to 50/yr) Contractor Size 2001 2006 2012 www.energycenter.org 10

100% 90% 80% Percent of Completed Projects 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Large (Greater than 100/yr) Medium (50 - 100/yr) Small (Up to 50/yr) Contractor Size 2001 2006 2012 www.energycenter.org 11

12 KW's 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 Average System Size = 4.5KW 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 www.energycenter.org 2013-Q1

14 12 10 Cost per watt $ 8 6 4 2 0 average plus one SD minus one SD www.energycenter.org 13

35% $20.00 and Up 30% 2013-Q1 2012-Q1 25% $16.00 - 16.50 2013-Q1 2011-Q1 20% 2010-Q1 2012-Q1 15% $12.00 - 12.50 2009-Q1 10% 2011-Q1 2008-Q1 5% $8.00 - 8.50 2010-Q1 0% 2007-Q1 2009-Q1 $4.00 - 4.50 2008-Q1 Up to $0.50 2007-Q1 0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15% 15%-20% 20%-25% 25%-30% 30%-35% www.energycenter.org 14

System Cost per Watt $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Owned Leased www.energycenter.org 15

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Leased Owned www.energycenter.org 16

Third Party Projects and Contractors 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Active Contractors Completed Projects www.energycenter.org 17

100 120 100 120 18 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 0 0 Q1 - 2008 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q1 - 2009 Solar West Electric Lease Lease Q2 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Solar City Q1 - 2010 Q1 - 2010 Own Q2 - 2010 Own Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q1 - 2011 Marketshare Marketshare Q2 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012 Q4 - 2012 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 100 120 100 120 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 0 0 Q1 - 2008 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q1 - 2009 Lease Lease Q2 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Sullivan Solar Q4 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 REC Solar Q1 - 2010 Q1 - 2010 Own Q2 - 2010 Own Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 www.energycenter.org Q4 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q1 - 2011 Marketshare Marketshare Q2 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012 Q4 - 2012 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Adopters (all) Non-Adopters Survey Respondents Characteristic N Mean N Mean N Mean Std Dev Std Dev Std Dev Loan to value 11,833 77.42 40.77 433,574 90.35 699.13 1,930 71.58 39.99 Assessed Home value 14,138 491,486 514,495 542,858 351,200 425,484 2,273 477,545 420,201 Square footage 14,138 2,466 1,178 542,858 1,915 957 2,273 2,522 1,081 Acreage 14,138 1.00 5.85 542,858 0.31 2.22 2,273 0.72 2.63 # bedrooms 14,047 3.62 1.06 536,148 3.39 1.02 2,266 3.69 0.90 # bathrooms 14,046 2.70 1.00 536,173 2.31 0.86 2,265 2.73 0.93 www.energycenter.org 19

Adopters (Third Party) Adopters (System Owner) Lease v. Own Characteristic N Mean N Mean t-stat p-value Std Dev Std Dev Loan to value 2,887 83 40 6,106 72 39 (12.56) - Assessed Home value 3,284 474,714 389,037 7,358 506,653 530,422 3.10 0.0019 Square footage 3,284 2,521 1,098 7,358 2,538 1,211 0.68 0.4942 Acreage 3,284 1.0 6.7 7,358 0.8 3.0 (2.15) 0.0318 3,271 3.7 1.1 7,320 3.7 1.1 (3.53) 0.0004 # bedrooms # bathrooms 3,271 2.7 0.9 7,320 2.7 1.0 (0.06) 0.9487 www.energycenter.org 20

Educational Attainment 40 Household Income 35 30 Percentage 30 25 20 25 15 20 10 Percentage 5 15 0 10 5 0 Length of Home Ownership 70 60 50 Percentage 40 30 20 10 - www.energycenter.org Less than One 1-3 years 3-5 years 5-10 years than 10 years 21 Year

Saving Money Energy Independence Environment Federal Incentives State Incentives Property value 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 = Most Important 2 3 4 5 6 = Least Important www.energycenter.org 22