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1 Southside Single - Family Detached Homes Market Share 1994 vs. - PDF document

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Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Residential Market Review Residential Market Review Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast 2006 2006 J. Van Rose, Jr. MIRM

  1. Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Hampton Roads Real Estate Residential Market Review Residential Market Review Market Review and Forecast Market Review and Forecast 2006 2006 J. Van Rose, Jr. MIRM President Rose & Womble Enterprises Residential Review – Residential Review – J.V. Rose, Jr. J.V. Rose, Jr. Principal Owner of Rose & Womble Realty 2004 Rose & Womble Sold 7,000 Homes Equaling $ 1 Billion in Volume Lifetime Teacher & Motivator Presented by: E.V. Williams Center Travels the country sharing his knowledge for Real Estate and unique perspective. and Economic Development 14 Year History of Resale and Hampton Roads Housing Stats – Hampton Roads Housing Stats – 2005 2005 New Construction Closings • 7,778 Building Permits 2 5 0 0 0 • 5,092 Closed New Home Sales 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 8 5 0 9 2 7 2 6 5 7 7 7 8 5 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 R e s a le N C 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 Permits Closings Growth of Home Sizes and Growth of Home Sizes and Hampton Roads Housing Stats – Hampton Roads Housing Stats – 2005 2005 Price Per Square Foot Price Per Square Foot • Average Price of SF New Home • Average Price of SF New Home 2 0 02 $17 0 K $7 9 SF 2 1 5 0 SF • • $405,943 $405,943 • • An I ncrease of $91,138 and An I ncrease of $91,138 and 2 0 03 $ 2 58 K $1 04 SF 28.9% in one year 2 4 8 0 SF 28.9% in one year • Average Price of SF Existing Home • Average Price of SF Existing Home 2 0 04 $ 31 3K $ 1 18 SF • • $252,844 $252,844 2 6 4 7 SF 2 0 05 $4 0 6K $ 145 SF • • An I ncrease of $45,317 and An I ncrease of $45,317 and 2 8 0 0 SF 21.8% in one year 21.8% in one year 1

  2. Southside Single - Family Detached Homes Market Share 1994 vs. 2005 Market Share 1994 vs. 2005 Resale vs. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2005 $500,000 $444,168 $473,205 $450,000 $390,187 36% $400,000 $332,161 NC – 1 7 % 18% $350,000 NC – 3 6 % $280,078 $300,000 $259,341 $250,000 82% $141,044 64% $164,090 $200,000 Resale $130,846 Resale RESALE - 6 4 % RESALE – 8 3 % $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 1 99 4 2 00 5 VB Ches Suff 2005 Resale NC Diff Southside Single - Family Detached Homes Peninsula Single - Family Detached Homes Resale vs. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2005 Resale vs. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2005 $450,000 $400,000 $390,523 $416,734 $340,897 $400,000 $324,992 $350,000 $344,739 $298,914 $350,000 $300,660 $300,000 $292,667 $300,000 $250,000 $194,880 $250,000 $203,738 $171,584 $200,000 $146,017 $200,000 $159,485 $127,330 $141,001 $141,175 $150,000 $124,067 $150,000 $65,531 $100,000 $100,000 $50,000 $50,000 $0 $0 Ports Norf I/W Hamp NN YC Resale NC Diff Resale NC Diff Peninsula Single – Family Detached Homes Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Resale vs. New Construction Average Closing Prices for 2005 Chesapeake Chesapeake Land Cost = $450,000 $368,816 3 8% $384,978 • Edinburgh - $275,000 $390,212 $ 7 22 ,59 5 $350,000 $261,559 • Ruth’s Glen - $250,000 Land Cost = $250,000 4 7% $ 5 39 ,73 3 $150,000 $21,396 Land Cost = • Emerald Forest - $285,347 3 6% $50,000 $ 7 89 ,00 0 ($50,000) ($123,419) Land Cost = • English Oaks - $178,778 2 6% ($150,000) $ 6 78 ,46 1 JCC WMSB Resale NC Diff 2

  3. Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Suffolk Virginia Beach Suffolk Virginia Beach Land Cost = Land Cost = 3 0% 4 3% • Governors Pointe - $182,000 Lago Mar – $211,690 $ 6 12 ,37 2 $ 7 13 ,83 7 Land Cost = Thoroughgood– $345,000 • Nansemond River Estates - 4 2% Land Cost = 3 1% $ 8 20 ,08 3 $ 141,825 $ 4 44 ,07 8 Victoria Park – $345,000 Land Cost = 4 8% $ 7 20 ,00 0* Indian River Plantation - Land Cost = 5 4% • The Riverfront - $368,505 $281,618 Land Cost = 4 1% $ 6 76 ,55 7 $ 6 94 ,60 4 * Estimated Selling Price Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Average Consumer Lot Costs Hampton, Newport News, York Hampton, Newport News, York James City County James City County County, Williamsburg County, Williamsburg Land Cost = Land Cost = 2 0 .4 % 3 6% Lake Powell Pointe – $166,201 $ 4 62 ,20 0 H Howe Farms – $94,667 $ 4 59 ,70 8 Land Cost = 2 9% Land Cost = 2 9% N Port Warwick – $159,724 Governors Land – $152,812 $ 4 07 ,94 0 $ 5 63 ,99 9 Land Cost = 2 4% Land Cost = Y Quartermarsh Est – $110,000 Fords Colony – $170,073 2 9% $ 4 49 ,30 0 $ 5 78 ,80 2 W Holly Hills - $385,106 Land Cost = 4 0% Landfall - $153,500 Land Cost = 2 9% $ 9 58 ,40 0 $ 5 24 ,90 2 RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG Residential Housing Residential Housing RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG FORECAST FORECAST Forecast Forecast 1. Cautiously Optimistic REASONS: 1 . Hampton Roads Economics 3

  4. RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG Hampton Roads Economic Stats Hampton Roads Economic Stats RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG 2005 2005 FORECAST FORECAST � � The area The area’ ’s economy has outperformed the s economy has outperformed the s for the past 5 5 years country country’ ’s for the past years � The port � The port’ ’s growth and tourism provide a buffer s growth and tourism provide a buffer to military cutbacks to military cutbacks REASONS: � � Median Family I ncome Median Family I ncome National Average National Average $ 57,511 $ 57,511 2 . Hampton Roads Housing Demand Virginia Beach Virginia Beach $ 61,230 $ 61,230 Chesapeake Chesapeake $ 58,701 $ 58,701 Hampton Hampton $ 46,110 $ 46,110 James City County $ 66,171 James City County $ 66,171 � � Average MSA Military Pay $ 52,600 Average MSA Military Pay $ 52,600 � More than 53,000 Retired Military in HR � More than 53,000 Retired Military in HR RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG Percent of Households That Purchased A Home in 2005 Compared To The Total Number of Households In The MSA FORECAST FORECAST C h a r l o t t e N C M S A R a l e i g h /D u r h a m M S A Total Closings Total Closings = 38,803 = 43,416 12.8 % of HH 8.1 % of HH REASONS: Total Total Households = 300,800 Households = 535,200 3. Hampton Roads Housing Supply H a m p t o n R o a d s M S A Total Closings = 29,390 Total 4.9 % of HH Households = 587,975 RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG Number of Homes Listed in December FORECAST FORECAST 1998-2005 and January 2006 1 0 0 0 0 REASONS: 8 0 0 0 8 5 8 2 6 0 0 0 6 9 0 2 4. Effects of Interest Rates 6 4 4 9 5 7 3 2 5 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 (Mortgage Instruments) 4 0 8 2 2 9 2 5 2 0 0 0 2 7 6 4 2 8 0 9 0 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 4

  5. RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG RESI DENTI AL HOUSI NG I nterest Rate Affect On Housing Affordability I nterest Rate Affect On Housing Affordability FORECAST FORECAST 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 MI $39,704 $42,448 $51,000 $53,900 $56,302 $56,624 $59,100 REASONS: IR 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 5.25% 6.0% 6.125% = = = = = = = 5. Military Influence TM $154,000 $173,000 $210,000 $260,000 $300,000 $275,000 $300,000 $400,000 With Down Payment $425,000 Interest Only $525,000 Interest Only With Down Payment New Construction Closings By Price Points Defense Spending I n Billions Defense Spending I n Billions 2003, 2004, 2005 1990 - 1990 - 2006 2006 2000 400 4 1 9 .3 4 1 7 350 3 7 9 .9 1500 3 5 5 .1 300 3 2 9 2 9 5 2 9 8 2 9 1 250 1000 2 7 0 2 5 8 2 3 8 2 3 0 200 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 1 8 2 0 3 2 1 9 500 150 100 0 50 <200 K 200-290K 300-390K 400-490K 500-590K 600-690K 700K + 0 2003 2004 2005 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 5

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