Research Findings July 18, 2018 Prepared for: ARIZONA COLORADO - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Research Findings July 18, 2018 Prepared for: ARIZONA COLORADO MONTANA NEW MEXICO NEVADA

A L L S T A T E S Methodology Sample Sizes: Center for Western Priorities ALL = 2500 AZ = 500 Public Lands Voter Profiles CO = 500 Online Survey Among Likely Voters MT = 500 NM = 500 Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada NV = 500 June 2018 MOE = +/- 2% for ALL MOE = +/- 4.4% per state Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 2

I N T R O D U C T I O N Winning the West 2018 On today’s political map the West is home to some key battleground states — including Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico. Western states include many of our nation’s most prized public lands, enabling people from all over the country to explore, challenge themselves and enjoy the outdoors with family and friends. In 2016, our Winning the West polling showed that Western voters expect a balanced approach to managing conservation, recreation and responsible energy development. The results from 2018 show the same voter commitment to balance. For 2018, we took a new approach to slicing the data. In addition to our traditional reporting of the results by regional and partisan demographic breaks (included in the first half of the deck), we wanted to introduce you to some different segments of the Western electorate. In the second half of this deck, you can explore data for these key “outdoor voting bloc” profiles. Collectively, they reinforce the finding that public lands are important to the West across demographic lines — political, regional and more. Politicians interested in winning the West should take note that these voters are paying close attention to their positions on public lands issues. The profiles include: The Ticket Splitter The Millennial Parent & The Empty Nester The Angler and Hunter & The Casual Outdoor Recreation Enthusiast (CORE) The Cable News Watcher & The Social Media User Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 3

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S Most Western voters see the country as headed off on the wrong track While three-quarters of GOP voters think things are headed in the right direction . Do you think things in [INSERT STATE] are going in the right And do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Right Direction 42 41 46 46 23 46 38 39 48 Right Direction 37 42 32 38 30 42 8 31 75 Wrong Track 47 49 43 38 65 42 53 48 40 Wrong Track 59 55 63 54 66 55 90 64 20 Don’t Know 12 11 11 16 12 12 9 13 12 Don’t Know 5 4 5 8 4 4 2 6 5 37 Right Direction 42 Right Direction 47 Wrong Direction All All 59 Wrong Direction 5 12 Don’t Know Don’t Know Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 4

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S Mountains and the outdoors are top reasons voters like living in the West In one or two sentences what do you like most about living in the West? Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 5

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S Healthcare, immigration and jobs are the top issues for 2018 Of the following list of issues, which one is most important to you [PICK TOP 2 CHOICES] [RANDOMIZE] ALL AZ CO MT NM NV Health care 43 42 45 39 39 44 Immigration 22 26 20 15 19 25 Jobs and the economy 22 21 19 27 24 26 National security 20 22 19 19 18 22 Education 19 19 18 18 23 22 Environment and climate 16 17 17 17 22 10 Government spending 16 16 16 20 17 14 Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 6

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S Public lands are important to Western voters no matter how you slice it And thinking about the 2018 elections, how important are public lands, parks and wildlife issues to you in deciding which candidate to vote for? 52 49 46 46 45 44 44 44 41 41 41 40 38 38 37 33 33 24 21 17 17 15 14 14 11 10 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not important at all Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 7

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S A majority of voters in the West disapprove of the administration’s job on public lands issues GOP voters approve with more than a quarter remaining undecided. And thinking about issues related to public lands, parks and wildlife in the West, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump and his administration is doing on public lands issues? 88 63 61 61 57 56 52 51 49 30 30 29 28 27 24 23 22 21 21 18 18 17 16 15 13 9 4 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Approve Disapprove Don't Know Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 8

Ad Admi ministr trati tion Proposals

A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S Drilling close to parks and reducing conservation efforts to increase public land available for oil and gas development are unpopular GOP voters are split on increasing drilling at the expense of conservation. Increasing public land available for oil and gas development Opening public lands close to national parks and monuments by reducing conservation efforts on behalf of potentially for oil and gas drilling endangered wildlife, like the sage-grouse ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 28 32 24 28 26 30 8 23 47 Support 25 30 21 23 24 27 8 23 47 Oppose 67 63 71 66 70 65 89 73 46 Oppose 70 65 74 71 72 69 90 73 46 Don’t Know 5 5 5 7 4 5 8 23 47 Don’t Know 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 5 7 25 Support 28 Support 5 Don’t Know 5 Don’t Know 67 Oppose 70 Oppose Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 10

A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S Reducing the size of national monuments is unpopular among Western voters Voters across the political spectrum oppose reductions. Significantly reducing the size of national monuments, including shrinking Utah’s Bears Ears by more than 80 percent and Grand Staircase-Escalante by 50 percent ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 18 19 16 21 19 22 5 16 34 Oppose 74 71 77 71 76 70 90 76 53 Don’t Know 8 10 8 8 5 8 5 7 13 Support 18 8 Don’t Know 74 Oppose Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 11

A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S Rolling back regulations on oil and gas development is unpopular in all 5 states Independent voters oppose rolling back regulations on oil and gas development. Rolling back environmental regulations on oil and gas development ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 29 31 27 31 27 33 10 26 53 Oppose 64 62 67 63 69 60 84 69 36 Don’t Know 7 8 7 7 5 7 6 5 11 29 Support 64 Oppose 7 Don’t Know Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 12

A R I Z O N A O N L Y — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S Arizona voters oppose removing restrictions on uranium mining near the Grand Canyon by a 2 to 1 margin GOP voters divided on removing these restrictions. Remove restrictions on uranium mining on public land near the Grand Canyon 84% 63 65% 49% 41% 29 28% 11% 8 9% 7% 7% AZ Support Oppose Don't Know Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 13

A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S Secretary Zinke’s approval rating is upside down in all 5 of the Western states polled, including Montana Almost two-thirds of Democrats have an unfavorable impression of him, while a plurality of GOP voters have a favorable impression of the Secretary. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke? 63 49 49 47 46 43 42 42 38 37 37 36 34 33 33 31 31 28 27 25 25 23 21 21 16 15 8 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know / Not Aware Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 14

Mo Motivation

A L L S T A T E S — M O T I V A T I O N Most voters agree that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their values on public lands issues and are motivated to vote when public lands are threatened 64 I will only vote for a candidate who shares 55 54 53 51 49 48 48 48 my values on protecting public lands 43 42 41 40 40 39 39 38 31 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree 83 75 75 I’m motivated to get out and vote 71 70 70 66 65 55 when public lands are threatened 38 35 32 28 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 14 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Strongly Agree TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 16