RES - causa di maggior flessibilità o possibile soluzione? Simone Biondi 18 Ottobre 2018 Un Ponte fra Università ed Aziende 2018
Beyond just the EU 2
Resource Adequacy: General Methodology Storage Network Infrastructure Available Generation Demand Deterministic Forecast: Deterministic Forecast: • ENTSOs’ Scenarios • ENTSOs’ Scenarios • Planned Outages Stochastic Uncertainty: Stochastic Uncertainty: • Temperature • Wind generation • Solar generation • Forced outages 3
Different risks addressed with different timeframes Long term Mid term Short term Several months 1 week >10 years Several years Policy decisions REAL Operational decisions TIME Investment decisions UNCERTAINTY INCREASES 4
Definizione di flessibilità e (primitivi?) tentativi di quantificazione 5
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility 𝑆𝑀 = 𝑀 − 𝑋 − 𝑇 Probabilistic assessment of the residual load 60 GW 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 PV Wind Residual Load Ramp Demand Residual 6
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility 15 99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load 10.3 9.3 10 8.4 7.2 5.6 5.4 5 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Ramps (GW) 1.4 0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 15 -1.8 -3.0 -5 -3.6 99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual -4.7 -5.0 -5.9 -10 -8.6 10 -9.9 -15 Load Ramps (GW) DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE 5 12 0 99th Percentile of Hourly Residual DE TR 10 GB -5 Load Ramp (GW) FR 8 -10 ES ITn 6 -15 PL 4 DE TR GB FR ES NL SE3 BE GR FI HU RO BG RS SK SE4 ITsic HR SI NI SE2 BA EE ITsar SE1 LUg LUf LUb DKkf NL ITn PL NOs AT CZ ITcs PT ITcn CH IE ITs DKw DKe NOm AL LT NOn LV MK CY ME IS MT DEkf 2 AT 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Installed Capacity of Wind and Solar Generation (GW) 7
Energy Transition: the flexibility challenge is real 50% generation capacity from variable RES by 2030 350 GW wind and PV to be connected by 2030 20% Higher installed variable RES capacity compared to peak demand 14 Countries with wind and solar outputs likely higher than 80% 20% Reduction of dispatchable capacity margin over peak load 8
Quali strumenti per fronteggiare crescente flessibilità? 9
Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions Clean Energy Package: “Where the European resource adequacy assessment identifies Generation a resource adequacy concern Member States shall identify any Capacity regulatory distortions that caused or contributed to the emergence of the concern” Inter- Storage connection Flexibility Strong Pan-European and technological interdependencies Demand- Need to coordinate and align Energy Side Efficiency Response activities 10
Benefit from spatial aggregation Generation Capacity Inter- Storage connection Flexibility Intuitively speaking, two countries do not Spatial (Pearson’s) correlations calculated from German onshore Demand- Energy Side Efficiency face the most critical ramp at the exact Response same time due to: • habitual differences between countries region 34_DE using the simulated wind generation data (e.g. different working time schedule, different mealtimes among countries, etc.) • climatic conditions & spatial dependencies • time zone differences from the 2050 scenario 11
Generation Benefit from spatial aggregation Capacity Inter- Storage connection Flexibility Demand- Energy Side Efficiency 41% Response 80 10% 70 +22.2 GW The aggregation has a 99.9th Percentile Hourly Ramps [GW] 60 balancing effect on the 5% residual load. While in one 50 country the residual load goes up, in another is 40 possibly goes down and ES thus the region can be FR 30 balanced via transmission 53.9 GW +2.1 GW of energy GB +0.8 GW 20 TR FR FR 21.4 GW 10 16.7 GW DE DE DE 0 12 DE+FR Aggregated PLEF Aggregated ENTSO-E Aggregated
Insieme ai rinforzi di rete, cos’altro serve? 13
Clean Energy Package EC proposals address the various issues 2022-2030 ▪ Active customer ▪ Scarcity pricing ▪ Removal of price caps ✓ Develop Policy ▪ Easier supplier switching Regions to promote progress and speed ▪ Risk preparedness framework ▪ European resource adequacy ▪ Regional Developments
New multi-sided orchestration platforms The customer rapidly promoted at the crossroad of systems Information flow Power flow Power Energy TRADITIONAL Power Electric End-use Power generation services ELECTRICITY devices distribution customer transmission & trading (retail) VALUE CHAIN Distributed resources (generation, storage, electric vehicles) Power Energy EMERGING Power End-use Power Electric generation services ELECTRICITY distribution devices customer transmission & trading (retail) VALUE CHAIN New market Orchestration Information role Information Data & services Information devices & hubs platform services appliances owner Page 15
A digital grid, is a key enabler to bring flexibility providers and flexibility users together Technical and economical features Residential DSR SME & Buildings Industrial Page 16
Our network “Enabling the energy transition”
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