Renewables in Greece Investing in Aiolos Dr. Ioannis Tsipouridis Chairman & C.E.O. RED Pro Consultants
CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. THE DRIVERS 3. THE EU DIRECTIVE TARGETS 4. THE IM PLICATIONS for GREECE 5. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK WIND M ARKET 6. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK PV M ARKET 7. INVESTING IN RENEWABLES: THE CASE FOR AIOLOS � PRESENT � PERSPECTIVES 8. CONCL USIONS 9. ANNEXES A, B & C
CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. THE DRIVERS 3. THE EU DIRECTIVE TARGETS 4. THE IM PLICATIONS for GREECE 5. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK WIND M ARKET 6. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK PV M ARKET 7. INVESTING IN RENEWABLES: THE CASE FOR AIOLOS � PRESENT � PERSPECTIVES 8. CONCL USIONS 9. ANNEXES A, B & C
THE REAL DRIVER FOR RES DEVELOPM ENT Our climate is changing fast. If we don’t change, we will perish. The only solution lies in the immediate, drastic reduction of CO2. The best way to achieve this is by the immediate, fastest and greatest development of Renewables.
CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. THE DRIVERS 3. THE EU DIRECTIVE TARGETS 4. THE IM PLICATIONS for GREECE 5. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK WIND M ARKET 6. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK PV M ARKET 7. INVESTING IN RENEWABLES: THE CASE FOR AIOLOS � PRESENT � PERSPECTIVES 8. CONCL USIONS 9. ANNEXES A, B & C
THE 2 DEGREES LIM IT TO AVOID CATASTROPHE
THERE ARE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT WE WILL STAY BELOW 2o C
THE SIGNS OF IM PEDING DISASTER ARE OBVIOUS TO SEE
THE SIGNS OF IM PEDING DISASTER ARE OBVIOUS TO SEE
EVEN SYSTEM IC M EDIA RECOGNISE THE SEVERITY OF THE SITUATION
M AJ OR FINANCIAL CENTERS SPELL THE ECONOM IC DISASTER
THE ECONOM IC DAM AGE IS HUGE
The cost runs in the trillions $
Who can argue with the Economist?
POLITICIANS, ARTISTS, FINANCIERS J OIN IN THE CALL FOR ACTION, NOW!
USA is taking the lead.
Even energy conservative centers (IEA) accept the facts… .
… . Although they underestimate them.
The change is beginning to happen.
And the change is global.
The effects are already measurable.
Climate change is interpreted in harsh financial terms and leads to a global economic restrt.. Trillions of dollars will be invested over the next 25 years, driving some of the most profound changes yet in how humans get their electricity. About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables!!!! The renewable-energy boom is here. There are six massive shifts coming soon to power markets: New forecast by Bloomberg New Energy Finance .
1. Solar Prices Keep Crashing The price of solar power will continue to fall, until it becomes the cheapest form of power in a rapidly expanding number of national markets. By 2026, utility-scale solar will be competitive for the majority of the world, according to BNEF . The lifetime cost of a photovoltaic solar-power plant will drop by almost half over the next 25 years, even as the prices of fossil fuels creep higher. Solar power will eventually get so cheap that it will outcompete new fossil-fuel plants and even start to supplant some existing coal and gas plants, potentially stranding billions in fossil-fuel infrastructure. The industrial age was built on coal. The next 25 years will be the end of its dominance.
2. Solar Billions Become Solar Trillions With solar power so cheap, investments will surge. Expect $3.7 trillion in solar investments between now and 2040. Solar alone will account for more than a third of new power capacity worldwide. Electricity capacity additions (Gigawatts): Source: BNEF
3. The Revolution Will Be Decentralized The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems. Rooftop (small-scale) solar in yellow. Renewables account for about two-thirds of investment over the next 25 years.
4. Global Demand Slows Growth in demand for electricity is slowing because of efficiency. Even as people rise from poverty to middle class faster than ever, BNEF predicts that global electricity consumption will remain relatively flat. In the next 25 years, global demand will grow about 1.8 percent a year, compared with 3 percent a year from 1990 to 2012. In wealthy OECD countries, power demand will actually decline. This watercolor chart compares economic growth to energy efficiency. Each color represents a country or region. As economies get richer, growth requires less power. The Beauty of Efficiency
5. Natural Gas Burns Briefly Natural gas won't be the "bridge fuel" that transitions from coal to renewable energy. The U.S. fracking boom will help bring global prices down, but few countries will replace coal plants with natural gas and developing countries will opt for some combination of coal, gas, and renewables. Even in the fracking-rich U.S., wind power will be cheaper than building new gas plants by 2023, and utility-scale solar will be cheaper than gas by 2036. Fossil fuels will retain a 44 percent share of total electricity generation in 2040 (down from two thirds today), much of which will come from legacy plants that are cheaper to run than shut down. Developing countries will be responsible for 99 percent of new coal plants and 86 percent of new gas-fired plants between now and 2040.
6. The Climate Is Still Screwed The shift to renewables is happening shockingly fast, but not fast enough to prevent perilous levels of global warming. Without additional policy action by governments, global CO2 from the power sector will continue to rise until 2029 and will remain 13 % higher than today's pollution levels in 2040. That's not enough to prevent global warming to rise more than 2 degrees Celsius. That's considered the point-of-no-return for some worst consequences of climate change.
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. THE DRIVERS 3. THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS 4. THE IM PLICATIONS for GREECE 5. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK WIND M ARKET 6. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK PV M ARKET 7. INVESTING IN RENEWABLES: THE CASE FOR AIOLOS � PRESENT � PERSPECTIVES 8. CONCL USIONS 9. ANNEXES A, B & C
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS
The European RES targets create a positive Investment environment THE EM ISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET FOR 2050
THE M EANS TO ACHIEVE THE TARGET IN ENERGY
THE M EANS TO ACHIEVE THE TARGET IN ELECTRICITY
The European RES targets create a positive Investment environment European RES development 2005 to 2020 European RES development 2005 to 2020
The European RES targets create a positive Investment environment European individual technologies development 2005 to 2020 European individual technologies development 2005 to 2020
THE EU DIRECTIVE / RESUL TS
The European RES targets create a positive Investment environment
CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. THE DRIVERS 3. THE EU DIRECTIVE / TARGETS 4. THE IM PLICATIONS for GREECE 5. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK WIND M ARKET 6. STATISTICS and DATA of THE GREEK PV M ARKET 7. INVESTING IN RENEWABLES: THE CASE FOR AIOLOS � PRESENT � PERSPECTIVES 8. CONCL USIONS 9. ANNEXES A, B & C
Overall target : 18% of share of energy generated from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption: � Heating and cooling : 20% of heat consumption met by renewable sources; � Electricity : 40% of electricity demand met by electricity generated from renewable energy sources; � Transport : 10% of energy demand met by renewable energy sources. Share of renewable consumption to gross final energy consumption . Comprises of direct use of renewables (e.g. biofuels) plus energy produced from renewables (e.g. wind, hydro). Final energy consumption is the energy that households, industry, services, agriculture and the transport sector use. EU M ember State 2006 2007 2008 2020 Target % To cover: Greece 7.2 % 8.1 % 7.9 % 18 % 10.1 % Germany 6.9 % 9 % 8.9 % 18 % 9.1 % Denmark 16.8 % 18.1 % 18.7 % 30 % 11.3 % Portugal 20.5 % 22.2 % 23 % 31 % 8 %
The desired renewable mix (2014/ 2020) M inisterial Decree, Oct. 2010 Technology Actual Targets Actual End 2009 2014 2020 Jun 2014 Hydro 3201 3700 4650 3238 Small (0-15MW) 183 300 350 220 Large (>15MW) 3018 3400 4300 3018 Photovoltaics 53 1500 2200 2588 Roofs (10 kW) 0 excl excl 372 Rest 53 1000 1450 2216 CSP 0 120 250 0 Wind (including offshore) 1167 4000 7500 1866 Biomass 43 200 350 47,1 Geothermal 0 0 120 0
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